Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 3

"Very famous" = Has at least 10 million followers on Twitter (adjusted for deflation in the event of a loss of popularity of Twitter), or they're otherwise famous enough that if they were to create a public Twitter account they would almost certainly get that number with ease.

The claim doesn't have to be made on Twitter. It does need to appear genuine and unironic. They don't need to actually follow through on it, but it does need to clearly be a "decision" and not a "hmm, I wonder if I should do this".

Important life decisions include who to date, where to live, what career to be in, etc.

In the event that this has already happened in the past, I reserve the right to change the market criteria to something in the same vein that's a bit more exclusive, so that the previous event doesn't qualify.

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I'm not aware of this having occurred. Google doesn't make it easy to look for instances. Anyone wanna present anything I missed before I resolve to NO?

predicted NO

2024+ version please?!

@Ernie Sure, I'll make one in a bit.

predicted NO

Not someone famous, but should increase probability in general:

2.) I am pleased to announce that I have direct experience with an AI (not ChatGPT) providing me the outline of an idea that has turned into a successful business.

Bard AI gave me an idea to use some existing commercial space I own as a commissary location for mobile food vendors and food trucks. It's turned into a fairly successful business as I currently have 11 vendors using about 5000sq/ft of shared space for commissary use, with shared chiller space and even a small prep kitchen. It's generating several thousands of dollars in rent for me each month.

Thanks Bard AI!


predicted YES

Maybe I should sell YES because Twitter will soon have less than 10,000,000 users.

@MartinRandall Resolves based on Twitter follower count adjusted for deflation.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall are you going to create a market on whether Twitter will soon have less than 10 million users?

predicted NO

WSJ today:

predicted YES

@uair01 2.9M:

predicted NO

@CodeandSolder Also, it's not clear the AI actually advised him to make a decision. The market shouldn't resolve 'yes' given my reading of the description, just because someone talked about ideas with Chat-GPT, including getting advice other than "invest in Open AI" that they thought was good, and then invested in Open AI, because the quality of the advice convinced them that it Open AI has really impressive tech and so is a good investment. That's not them performing action because an AI advised that very action.

predicted NO

@DavidMathers 100% agree. The title reads "made an important life decision because an AI suggested it"

That requires both:

  1. ChatGPT directly suggested the investment in AI to Masayoshi

  2. Masayoshi made the investment because ChatGPT suggested it, not for some other reason such as being generally impressed with it

predicted YES

@jonsimon I agree this article is not sufficient to resolve yes due to criteria in title not being satisfied. Honestly I tend to think investments are not life decisions in general - more of a business decision.

predicted YES

This clearly doesn't satisfy the criteria, but it contributes to the base rate.

predicted NO

I predicted NO but now I'm wavering because recently I experimented with a prebiotics advice given by ChatGPT. If I already did that, there must be more famous people doing it too.

predicted NO

@RJPerez This has nothing to do with this market. The CEO didn't use AI to make the decision, it's just a post saying that he intends to replace jobs with AI

bought Ṁ500 of NO

reasoning for betting no:

  • 10M twitter followers is a lot – doesn't include celebrities like grimes who i could totally see doing this

  • Standard for major life decision appears to be quite high – cowriting a piece with AI/using an AI suggestion for music doesn't count

The main case for YES that I can see is Elon, but I doubt his new AI company will have a good model by EOY 2023 (and I doubt he'd use chatgpt publicly for a major decision because he's competing with them)

predicted NO

I think what makes this market mispriced is people 1) overestimathing the number of "very famous" people who would publicly say this and 2) underestimathing the standard for an "important life decision"

sold Ṁ37 of NO

Even if he had 10M followers, this would not have counted

predicted YES

@kottsiek I did not say it would.

Would an artist that met the famousness criteria doing any of the following cause a resolve YES:

  • Naming an album or book title off an AI suggestion

  • Co-writing a piece of art they release commercially

  • Turning down or accepting a substantial work contract

@PipFoweraker Good questions. 1 & 2 I think are definitely a no. 3 I'm less sure about; probably no, but if it's the sort of contract that's going to dictate their life for the next few years, then I think it should count.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@IsaacKing Thanks! I will take a position accordingly :-)

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