"Very famous" = Has at least 10 million followers on Twitter, or they're otherwise famous enough that if they were to create a public Twitter account they would almost certainly get that number with ease.
The claim doesn't have to be made on Twitter. It does need to appear genuine and unironic. They don't need to actually follow through on it, but it does need to clearly be a "decision" and not a "hmm, I wonder if I should do this".
Important life decisions include who to date, where to live, what career to be in, etc.
In the event that this has already happened in the past, I reserve the right to change the market criteria to something in the same vein that's a bit more exclusive, so that the previous event doesn't qualify.
Yes stocks on the rise? https://twitter.com/axios/status/1653496771027390480?s=46&t=G2gaNSFPYWSm4OGN2BQJ9g
@RJPerez This has nothing to do with this market. The CEO didn't use AI to make the decision, it's just a post saying that he intends to replace jobs with AI
reasoning for betting no:
10M twitter followers is a lot – doesn't include celebrities like grimes who i could totally see doing this
Standard for major life decision appears to be quite high – cowriting a piece with AI/using an AI suggestion for music doesn't count
The main case for YES that I can see is Elon, but I doubt his new AI company will have a good model by EOY 2023 (and I doubt he'd use chatgpt publicly for a major decision because he's competing with them)
I think what makes this market mispriced is people 1) overestimathing the number of "very famous" people who would publicly say this and 2) underestimathing the standard for an "important life decision"
The German Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Hubertus Heil has claimed that he uses ChatGPT to prepare for interviews. Only 120.000 followers though.
Sources:
https://www.golem.de/news/revolution-der-arbeitswelt-arbeitsminister-heil-nutzt-chatgpt-2304-173822.html
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/arbeitsminister-uber-kunstliche-intelligenz-ab-2035-wird-es-keinen-job-mehr-geben-der-nichts-mit-ki-zu-tun-hat-9733466.html
Would an artist that met the famousness criteria doing any of the following cause a resolve YES:
Naming an album or book title off an AI suggestion
Co-writing a piece of art they release commercially
Turning down or accepting a substantial work contract
@PipFoweraker Good questions. 1 & 2 I think are definitely a no. 3 I'm less sure about; probably no, but if it's the sort of contract that's going to dictate their life for the next few years, then I think it should count.
@IsaacKing My mistake, I read 13 -- but I will hold on Yes for now. Things are early and AI seems well-suited for the kind of vague self-help culture that is present in lots of media among major celebrities right now.
It'd be Gwyneth Paltrow and she'll start selling AI generated goop
If they did brainstorming with an AI, like talking to a friend or to a rubber duck, and most of the work seems to have been "help the person process their own thoughts", and the AI suggests an action that the person accepts, then this resolves as YES, right?
What does "very famous" mean? When is someone famous enough? Also there are so many celebrities in so many languages, if nothing comes up maybe that's just because it slipped through the cracks.
The only way this happens is if that famous person has financial interest or other affiliation with the product they mention.
Other than that, the only possible person who would potentially be manic enough to resolve this YES is Elon musk. No doubt an AI will name his next child, or decide the next CEO of Twitter.
@Gen yes. Do ads (celebs promoting an ai product by talking about how important ai is to them personally) count for this market?
@firstuserhere "It does need to appear genuine and unironic. They don't need to actually follow through on it, but it does need to clearly be a "decision" and not a "hmm, I wonder if I should do this"." is the confusing part for me
@firstuserhere Only if I believe the person is speaking honestly and not acting a character they were hired to act.
