"Very famous" = Has at least 10 million followers on Twitter (adjusted for deflation in the event of a loss of popularity of Twitter), or they're otherwise famous enough that if they were to create a public Twitter account they would almost certainly get that number with ease.
The claim doesn't have to be made on Twitter. It does need to appear genuine and unironic. They don't need to actually follow through on it, but it does need to clearly be a "decision" and not a "hmm, I wonder if I should do this".
Important life decisions include who to date, where to live, what career to be in, etc.
In the event that this has already happened in the past, I reserve the right to change the market criteria to something in the same vein that's a bit more exclusive, so that the previous event doesn't qualify.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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@DanW The tweet: (matches the criteria of this market)
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1563282607315382273
Not someone famous, but should increase probability in general:
2.) I am pleased to announce that I have direct experience with an AI (not ChatGPT) providing me the outline of an idea that has turned into a successful business.
Bard AI gave me an idea to use some existing commercial space I own as a commissary location for mobile food vendors and food trucks. It's turned into a fairly successful business as I currently have 11 vendors using about 5000sq/ft of shared space for commissary use, with shared chiller space and even a small prep kitchen. It's generating several thousands of dollars in rent for me each month.
Thanks Bard AI!
@MartinRandall are you going to create a market on whether Twitter will soon have less than 10 million users?
@CodeandSolder Also, it's not clear the AI actually advised him to make a decision. The market shouldn't resolve 'yes' given my reading of the description, just because someone talked about ideas with Chat-GPT, including getting advice other than "invest in Open AI" that they thought was good, and then invested in Open AI, because the quality of the advice convinced them that it Open AI has really impressive tech and so is a good investment. That's not them performing action because an AI advised that very action.
@DavidMathers 100% agree. The title reads "made an important life decision because an AI suggested it"
That requires both:
ChatGPT directly suggested the investment in AI to Masayoshi
Masayoshi made the investment because ChatGPT suggested it, not for some other reason such as being generally impressed with it
@jonsimon I agree this article is not sufficient to resolve yes due to criteria in title not being satisfied. Honestly I tend to think investments are not life decisions in general - more of a business decision.
I predicted NO but now I'm wavering because recently I experimented with a prebiotics advice given by ChatGPT. If I already did that, there must be more famous people doing it too.
Yes stocks on the rise? https://twitter.com/axios/status/1653496771027390480?s=46&t=G2gaNSFPYWSm4OGN2BQJ9g
@RJPerez This has nothing to do with this market. The CEO didn't use AI to make the decision, it's just a post saying that he intends to replace jobs with AI
reasoning for betting no:
10M twitter followers is a lot – doesn't include celebrities like grimes who i could totally see doing this
Standard for major life decision appears to be quite high – cowriting a piece with AI/using an AI suggestion for music doesn't count
The main case for YES that I can see is Elon, but I doubt his new AI company will have a good model by EOY 2023 (and I doubt he'd use chatgpt publicly for a major decision because he's competing with them)
The German Minister of Labour and Social Affairs Hubertus Heil has claimed that he uses ChatGPT to prepare for interviews. Only 120.000 followers though.
Sources:
https://www.golem.de/news/revolution-der-arbeitswelt-arbeitsminister-heil-nutzt-chatgpt-2304-173822.html
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/arbeitsminister-uber-kunstliche-intelligenz-ab-2035-wird-es-keinen-job-mehr-geben-der-nichts-mit-ki-zu-tun-hat-9733466.html
@PipFoweraker Good questions. 1 & 2 I think are definitely a no. 3 I'm less sure about; probably no, but if it's the sort of contract that's going to dictate their life for the next few years, then I think it should count.