Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2023?
resolved Aug 1

Will resolve YES if the Kurzgesagt channel publishes a video on AI alignment or explicitly AI and its risks (i.e. not on broad existential risk) before the deadline.

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bought Ṁ30 of YES

Open Philanthropy sponsored video on biotech risk released today

@Mvem Open Phil has funded their videos in the past...

predicted YES

@MattReardon This one is about an AI risk adjacent topic, could easily have been about AI

good very good

What happens if they release the video in another dlanguage first? e.g. at their german channel?

@Svenbonne Then the video title would probably be one really long compound word, like, "Sehrschlecktenartificialenintelligenzrischkenanalizis"

@Svenbonne If a video is released about it from the Kurzgesagt team, then it counts!

@PatrickDelaney I guess it would be more like "Warum (A)KI gefährlicher ist als viele denken"

predicted YES

@Svenbonne Yeah, that's technically correct but not as funny (to an English speaker) as if you were to make up a super unnecessarily sounding long compound word to embody one concept.

predicted YES

@Svenbonne GPT4 says, "KünstlicheIntelligenzGefahrenÜberraschungsUnwissenheitsBewusstseinsSchnitzelkatastrophengefahr" ...

@PatrickDelaney That is a very funny and hilarious Word/Sentence written withour space 😅

Computersoftwareneuheitssicherheitsgefahrenabwägungsexpertenvideoanalyse (kurzgesagt: KI-Sicherheit)

@PatrickDelaney I like the random insertion of "Schnitzel".

predicted YES

Man, they just released a video explaining their funding and optimistic bias in their videos. That took what, a week?

That AI video is on its way soon.

predicted NO

@Raze How do you know it took them only one week to make that video?

predicted YES

@LukeHanks It took 3 months to respond to this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjHMoNGqQTI, probably less since that video got popular around a month ago.

The AI video is probably on track to release sometime in May or June.

predicted NO

@Raze speaking from position. :)

Kurzgesagt, oh Kurzgesagt,
Will you release a video,
On AI alignment, so we can get it?
Before August 1st, 2023, you bet!

bought Ṁ20 of NO

They must have it on their radar, and if not so far, I'm sure gpt 4's release will affect that, but there's no chance they're done with it in 4 months.

@sacredSatan Do you have data on how long it usually takes them to make a video?

predicted NO

@LukeHanks yes, they made a video about it a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFk0mgljtns

predicted YES

@sacredSatan Assuming the number they give for how long it takes them to make a video, they could have one starting now, and be out by May. That's also assuming the 1200 hour figure they use is the average time spent from start to finish on one video and not man hours.

Kurzgesagt seems to be pretty on the ball with popular trends so I think this is a pretty safe bet they will have one out before August.

predicted YES

@Raze But I also thought forsen would finish a run this month so I have been wrong before.

predicted NO

@Raze from near the end of the video:

This journey has been so wild and so much fun, and we can't wait to share the stuff we're working on right now with you; in a year, or maybe two.

predicted YES

@LukeHanks Ok but that's also clearly a joke. I don't know if that's their actual timeline.

predicted NO

@Raze I don't think it's a joke. They mention that some scripts can take as much as a year or more to finish. I think this is a topic that requires a bit of time. Unless they get greedy and want to get in on the hype, which isn't like them, and I don't think the hype for AI is going away anytime soon.

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