Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Aug 2

Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2023?

56%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will resolve YES if the Kurzgesagt channel publishes a video on AI alignment or explicitly AI and its risks (i.e. not on broad existential risk) before the deadline.

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Kurzgesagt, oh Kurzgesagt,
Will you release a video,
On AI alignment, so we can get it?
Before August 1st, 2023, you bet!

satanbought Ṁ20 of NO

They must have it on their radar, and if not so far, I'm sure gpt 4's release will affect that, but there's no chance they're done with it in 4 months.

@sacredSatan Do you have data on how long it usually takes them to make a video?

satanis predicting NO at 64%

@LukeHanks yes, they made a video about it a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFk0mgljtns

Razeis predicting YES at 54%

@sacredSatan Assuming the number they give for how long it takes them to make a video, they could have one starting now, and be out by May. That's also assuming the 1200 hour figure they use is the average time spent from start to finish on one video and not man hours.

Kurzgesagt seems to be pretty on the ball with popular trends so I think this is a pretty safe bet they will have one out before August.

Razeis predicting YES at 54%

@Raze But I also thought forsen would finish a run this month so I have been wrong before.

Luke Hanksis predicting NO at 54%

@Raze from near the end of the video:

This journey has been so wild and so much fun, and we can't wait to share the stuff we're working on right now with you; in a year, or maybe two.

Razeis predicting YES at 63%

@LukeHanks Ok but that's also clearly a joke. I don't know if that's their actual timeline.

satanis predicting NO at 57%

@Raze I don't think it's a joke. They mention that some scripts can take as much as a year or more to finish. I think this is a topic that requires a bit of time. Unless they get greedy and want to get in on the hype, which isn't like them, and I don't think the hype for AI is going away anytime soon.

Raul Cavalcanteis predicting YES at 59%

gpt4-32k in the model window

Raul Cavalcanteis predicting YES at 59%

@RaulCavalcante sorry commented in the wrong market

how does this resolves when it mentions risks from AI, but it puts very little focus on existential risk from AI?

@harfe, it resolves YES if:
It is a full video focused on the risks of AI (even non-existential, doubt this would be the case though with recent OpenPhil partnerships)

harfeis predicting NO at 57%

@EsbenKran I think you should rename the title of the question then. Maybe to "will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI and its risks before ...". This would resolve describe the market more accurately imo.

I take your comment that the AI video from Jon Oliver https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqa8Zo2XWc4 would resolve the question positively (and its not really an alignment video).

Lbought Ṁ100 of NO

reasoning: hunch, no specific and coherent evidence

NoUsernameSelected bought Ṁ50 NO from 58% to 56%

na pewno bought Ṁ10 NO at 58%

Harlan Stewart bought Ṁ10 NO at 58%

uhcess bought Ṁ35 YES from 57% to 58%

GPT-P bought Ṁ10 YES at 57%

PersonMan bought Ṁ100 NO from 60% to 57%

Luke Hanks filled limit order Ṁ97/Ṁ100 NO at 60%

Dan sold Ṁ46 NO from 61% to 63%

Sky bought Ṁ200 YES from 58% to 61%

Steffo bought Ṁ20 YES from 57% to 58%

Sabrina bought Ṁ10 YES at 57%

puffymist created limit order for Ṁ16 YES at 32%

MHKFA bought Ṁ100 YES from 55% to 57%

Jo King bought Ṁ10 YES at 55%

Jakob Zupanec bought Ṁ100 YES from 52% to 55%

lukalot bought Ṁ10 YES at 52%

Travis Luckenbaugh bought Ṁ50 YES from 51% to 52%

bja123 bought Ṁ50 NO from 52% to 51%

PersonMan bought Ṁ100 NO from 55% to 52%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 55%

Caleb Ditchfield bought Ṁ100 YES from 55% to 58%

Caleb Ditchfield bought Ṁ100 YES from 53% to 55%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ10 YES at 53%

Patrick bought Ṁ10 NO at 53%

PersonMan bought Ṁ10 NO at 53%

Irwin Dudley bought Ṁ10 YES at 53%

cheese doodle bought Ṁ30 YES at 53%

Mark Ramsbo bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 53%

Manu Srinath Halvagal bought Ṁ10 YES at 52%

Grace C bought Ṁ15 NO at 52%

Celene bought Ṁ10 YES at 52%

Ivan bought Ṁ20 YES at 52%

Ivan bought Ṁ40 YES from 51% to 52%

Butanium bought Ṁ30 YES from 50% to 51%

Luke Hanks filled limit order Ṁ150/Ṁ150 NO at 50%

Ming bought Ṁ50 YES from 53% to 54%

Victor Li bought Ṁ53 NO from 54% to 53%

Heliscone sold Ṁ21 NO at 54%

Matt McDade bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 54%

Kevin Lalik bought Ṁ10 YES at 53%

Kevin Lalik bought Ṁ30 YES from 52% to 53%

Lainan Q. bought Ṁ30 YES at 52%

Alfie bought Ṁ40 YES from 51% to 52%

Raze bought Ṁ50 YES from 50% to 51%

Long Tran bought Ṁ30 YES at 50%

Randy Ardywibowo bought Ṁ10 YES at 50%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 41%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 38%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 55%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 58%

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