Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2023?
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resolved Aug 1
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NO

Will resolve YES if the Kurzgesagt channel publishes a video on AI alignment or explicitly AI and its risks (i.e. not on broad existential risk) before the deadline.

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Mvem avatar
Mvembought Ṁ30 of YES

Open Philanthropy sponsored video on biotech risk released today

MattReardon avatar
Matt Reardon

@Mvem Open Phil has funded their videos in the past...

Mvem avatar
Mvempredicted YES

@MattReardon This one is about an AI risk adjacent topic, could easily have been about AI

SharifulIsalm avatar
Shariful Isalm

good very good

Svenbonne avatar
Svenbonne

What happens if they release the video in another dlanguage first? e.g. at their german channel?

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaney

@Svenbonne Then the video title would probably be one really long compound word, like, "Sehrschlecktenartificialenintelligenzrischkenanalizis"

EsbenKran avatar
Esben Kran

@Svenbonne If a video is released about it from the Kurzgesagt team, then it counts!

Svenbonne avatar
Svenbonne

@PatrickDelaney I guess it would be more like "Warum (A)KI gefährlicher ist als viele denken"

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaneypredicted YES

@Svenbonne Yeah, that's technically correct but not as funny (to an English speaker) as if you were to make up a super unnecessarily sounding long compound word to embody one concept.

PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaneypredicted YES

@Svenbonne GPT4 says, "KünstlicheIntelligenzGefahrenÜberraschungsUnwissenheitsBewusstseinsSchnitzelkatastrophengefahr" ...

Svenbonne avatar
Svenbonne

@PatrickDelaney That is a very funny and hilarious Word/Sentence written withour space 😅

Computersoftwareneuheitssicherheitsgefahrenabwägungsexpertenvideoanalyse (kurzgesagt: KI-Sicherheit)

Schwabilismus avatar
Schwabilismus

@PatrickDelaney I like the random insertion of "Schnitzel".

Raze avatar
Razepredicted YES

Man, they just released a video explaining their funding and optimistic bias in their videos. That took what, a week?

That AI video is on its way soon.

HankyUSA avatar
Luke Hankspredicted NO

@Raze How do you know it took them only one week to make that video?

Raze avatar
Razepredicted YES

@LukeHanks It took 3 months to respond to this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjHMoNGqQTI, probably less since that video got popular around a month ago.

The AI video is probably on track to release sometime in May or June.

AdamSzilvasi avatar
Ádám Szilvásipredicted NO

@Raze speaking from position. :)

Mason avatar
GPT-PBot

Kurzgesagt, oh Kurzgesagt,
Will you release a video,
On AI alignment, so we can get it?
Before August 1st, 2023, you bet!

sacredSatan avatar
satanbought Ṁ20 of NO

They must have it on their radar, and if not so far, I'm sure gpt 4's release will affect that, but there's no chance they're done with it in 4 months.

HankyUSA avatar
Luke Hanks

@sacredSatan Do you have data on how long it usually takes them to make a video?

sacredSatan avatar
satanpredicted NO

@LukeHanks yes, they made a video about it a while ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFk0mgljtns

Raze avatar
Razepredicted YES

@sacredSatan Assuming the number they give for how long it takes them to make a video, they could have one starting now, and be out by May. That's also assuming the 1200 hour figure they use is the average time spent from start to finish on one video and not man hours.

Kurzgesagt seems to be pretty on the ball with popular trends so I think this is a pretty safe bet they will have one out before August.

Raze avatar
Razepredicted YES

@Raze But I also thought forsen would finish a run this month so I have been wrong before.

HankyUSA avatar
Luke Hankspredicted NO

@Raze from near the end of the video:

This journey has been so wild and so much fun, and we can't wait to share the stuff we're working on right now with you; in a year, or maybe two.

Raze avatar
Razepredicted YES

@LukeHanks Ok but that's also clearly a joke. I don't know if that's their actual timeline.

sacredSatan avatar
satanpredicted NO

@Raze I don't think it's a joke. They mention that some scripts can take as much as a year or more to finish. I think this is a topic that requires a bit of time. Unless they get greedy and want to get in on the hype, which isn't like them, and I don't think the hype for AI is going away anytime soon.