For the bet to be resolve as "yes," the following criteria could be established:
1. Scheduled Flights: Commercial flights must resume regular, scheduled operations from at least one Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026.
2. International Routes: The resumption should include flights on international routes, not limited to domestic services.
3. Operational Stability: The resumed commercial flights should demonstrate a level of operational stability, indicating a sustainable return to normalcy in the aviation sector.
4. Official Recognition: Recognized aviation authorities or international organizations should acknowledge the reopening of commercial flights from Ukrainian airports.
5. No Significant Restrictions: The resumption should occur without significant travel restrictions or disruptions that would impede regular commercial air travel.
Air traffic in Ukraine can start already this year, - General Director of ACI Europe.
"I think with high probability that the first flights in Ukraine will begin to be performed by the end of 2024. Despite the military risks, Ukraine does not stop trains, and they are very slow, unlike airplanes. However, for some reason, everyone decided that aviation is more dangerous," said Olivier Yankovets.
Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:
Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:
EOY 2025?
EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?
pro-Russian ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
pro-Ukraine ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M