How could Ukraine win a war against Russia with a ceasefire on Ukrainian or allied terms? [add responses]
1.1k
2030
73%
Political collapse or revolution in Moscow
68%
Multiple foreign countries directly join the war against Russia
62%
Putin dies of natural causes
51%
Decisive military counteroffensive
41%
Ukraine regains control of occupied territories
39%
Russia enters recession
35%
Ukrainian AF privatization/decentralization (widescale use of PMCs)
28%
Ukraine joins NATO

Here are some suggested definitions to clarify key terms for the bet:

Definitions:

  • Ukraine win - A ceasefire or peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia on terms favorable to Ukraine. This includes at a minimum:

    • Russia withdrawing from all Ukrainian territory occupied since 2014.

    • Ukraine regaining full control of its internationally recognized pre-2014 borders

    • Russia formally renouncing territorial claims on any Ukrainian land

  • Allied terms - Terms of a ceasefire or peace deal that align with the public positions of and serve the interests of the US, NATO countries, and other major allies providing military aid to Ukraine.

  • Occupied territories - Areas of Ukraine that have been occupied by Russian armed forces since 2014, including Crimea and parts of eastern Donbas/Donetsk and Luhansk regions not controlled by Ukrainian government before 2022 invasion.

  • Decisive Ukrainian counteroffensive - Ukraine launching successful large-scale operations to drive Russian forces out of substantial occupied areas of Ukraine and significantly degrade Russia's military capabilities in Ukraine.

  • Political collapse/revolution in Moscow - The currently ruling Russian government under Vladimir Putin losing power due to internal pressure or coup, resulting in new leadership.

Please let me know if you would like me to modify or expand on any of these definitions to provide more clarity around key terms pertaining to the conditions for an Ukrainian win in the war against Russia. I'm happy to incorporate additional details as needed.

Following scenarios are included:

  1. Ukraine retakes all occupied territories including Crimea, forcing Russia to accept ceasefire terms renouncing territorial claims.

    • Criteria: Ukraine regains control of all land occupied by Russia since 2014. Ceasefire compels Russia to formally cede claims on these areas under threat of further military action.

  2. Ukraine joins NATO, forcing Russia into ceasefire to avoid invocation of Article 5

    • Criteria: Ukraine is granted NATO membership. Russia ceases hostilities to avoid war against NATO alliance per Article 5.

  3. Decisive Ukrainian offensive leaves Russia unable to continue fighting

    • Criteria: Ukraine launches successful counteroffensive pushing Russian forces back to the point they lose capability or will to sustain hostilities. Russia accepts ceasefire terms.

  4. Political collapse or revolution in Moscow leads to Russian withdrawal

    • Criteria: Putin government is removed from power. New government initiates unilateral withdrawal per Ukraine/allied ceasefire requirements.

  5. Widescale use of Ukrainian PMC’s (army privatization/decentralization) that lead to ceasefire.

    • Pro-Ukraine private military companies (PMC) carry out a successful irregular warfare operation inside Russian territory, occupied territories, or on the frontlines in Ukraine which inflicts sufficient damage or disruption to force Russian leadership to agree to ceasefire terms.Irregular warfare operations include sabotage, training/arming resistance groups, targeted assassinations or kidnappings of Russian commanders, attacks on Russian military infrastructure or supply lines.

If multiple options lead to ceasefire, than every option will resolve as 'yes'. The bet will resolve as N/A if Ukraine doesn’t get a ceasefire agreement on Ukrainian/allied terms.

upd: Bet on primary drivers of a ceasefire agreement on russian terms here

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Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state-0e415b192aa1?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?

pro-Russian ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

pro-Ukraine ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  1. Multiple countries directly join the war providing air support

    • Criteria: At least 3 countries formally declare war against Russia in Ukraine by committing their own military aircraft and pilots to conduct strikes on Russian targets. This includes establishing and enforcing a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine. Their substantial air power tips the war in Ukraine's favor, allowing Ukraine to regain territory and force Russia to accept allied ceasefire terms.

Key points:

  • Entry of 3+ air forces directly attacking Russians

  • No-Fly Zone enforced over Ukraine

  • Level of air support proves decisive in defeating Russia

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