Bay Area Bingo: What will I experience/encounter going to watch Manifold's Dating Show in San Francisco?
107
2.1K
13K
resolved Feb 13
Resolved
YES
Eat a bagel
Resolved
YES
Talk to a stranger about something they're passionate about
Resolved
YES
Go backstage at the dating show
Resolved
YES
Get insider information from a Manifold staff member
Resolved
YES
Make a profit in dating show related markets
Resolved
YES
Give out insider information to someone else
Resolved
YES
Attend a party
Resolved
YES
Stream a Manifold Live episode
Resolved
YES
See the Manifold Office
Resolved
YES
Eat a Mission burrito
Resolved
YES
Eat a pastry at Tartine
Resolved
YES
Eat something with @mattyb
Resolved
YES
Have someone tell me their P(Doom) is >90%
Resolved
YES
See a self-driving car
Resolved
YES
Go to Dolores Park
Resolved
YES
Attend a second party
Resolved
YES
Take muni
Resolved
YES
Get a Clipper card
Resolved
YES
Watch the Superbowl
Resolved
YES
Hear someone say "rationalussy" completely unprompted

I'm currently planning a brief trip to the bay to attend Manifold's bachelorette show. I'm thinking I'll fly in the morning of the 10th, then fly out the morning of the 12th.

Inspired by @shankypanky's market /shankypanky/nyc-bingo-what-will-i-experienceenc , this market will solicit suggestions of what should happen on my trip. If something happens to/around me, it resolves yes. If it doesn't happen, it resolves no. I reserve the right to N/A responses for any reason.

Most of the things that will happen will probably be Manifold related since I'm only there for a short time, but open to general suggestions of stuff or people to hang out with in SF.

This started with me talking to @SG about doing a Manifold Live episode related to the Bet on Love show, and he kindly got me a ticket with backstage access so feel free to submit suggestions related to that.

If you're in SF and/or plan on attending the show, hit me up to hang out! The show is in the Mission District and I plan to stay at a hotel nearby, so suggestions in that area are more likely to resolve yes.

I will make only token trades in this market, and try to sell my positions to keep myself unbiased. I will announce resolutions before they happen.

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Livestream part of your visit in San Francisco

Gonna N/A this bc technically the manifold live show would count but that should have been established before

Today I

  • Got the clipper card app

  • Decided I still didn't want to take BART

  • Ubered to the airport

  • Saw a very cute dog in security

  • Got a bagel

bought Ṁ1,000 See another very cut... YES

@Joshua Does this count as getting a clipper card?

bought Ṁ33 See another very cut... YES

@Joshua where is everyone I'm exercising an unreasonable amount of self control to not bet these things all the way up/down myself lol

@june yup as I said below. Couldn't figure it out yesterday but got it today.

@shankypanky self control schmelf schmontrol

Watch the Superbowl
bought Ṁ1,000 Watch the Superbowl YES

@mattyb That was great, thanks for hosting! Probably most of the ones left resolve no as I fly out tomorrow, but I'll double-check to make sure

bought Ṁ250 Have a one-on-one co... NO

@Joshua happily, you’re welcome back any time

Get a Clipper card

You took the muni without getting one?

@MarkHamill he put $5 cash in and couldn’t get change 🫤

Get insider information from a Manifold staff member

Roon 👀

Give out insider information to someone else
bought Ṁ1,000 Give out insider inf... YES

You’ve given me heaps

boughtṀ10Try someone's Vision... NO

@mattyb oh no

bought Ṁ10 Try someone's Vision... NO

I tried to find a bagel but only got a croissant. Now heading to the manifold office

Visit Proof School

wouldn’t make sense to do this today since it’d be closed, and you’re leaving tomorrow…I’m also not sure if they’d let you in tbh. prob not worth it

@Conflux Yeah wasn't planning on it haha

matty

@Joshua wrong button. can you N/A this one?

@mattyb LOL

@mattyb ngl I thought this was bold but I was into it

@shankypanky haha feel free to add it back. it’d be up to Joshua to judge if he truly experienced mattyb

I think that it was clear that the show itself was telling you that its p(doom) was 99%.

Hear someone say "rationalussy" completely unprompted
bought Ṁ1,000 Hear someone say "ra... YES

Almost made it out of the party safely, but alas

No cool hats yet

@Joshua also no vision pros

sold Ṁ28 See someone at the a... YES

@mattyb you know what to bring (if you're gonna meet, idk if you are)

sold Ṁ17 See someone at the a... YES

@Bayesian they're doing an episode of the pod tomorrow!

@shankypanky yeah ik about that but not about whether they'd meet for it (could be through discord and at a distance)

@Bayesian interesting

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