Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by EOY 2024?
1k
Dec 31
12%
chance
  • The bet will be considered POSITIVE if a frozen conflict is established in Ukraine by December 31st, 2024, similar to war in Donbass from 2015 to 2021. This is defined as:

    1. A formal or not formal ceasefire agreement is in place

    2. No major kinetic military operations, major shelling, or battles occur for a consecutive 3 month period

    3. Some Russian forces remain occupying parts of Ukraine

    4. Political resolution talks stall with no comprehensive peace deal

  • The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and major kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.

  • If by December 31st, 2024, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A.

Frozen conflict by EOY 2024 (you are here)

Frozen conflict by EOY 2025 link

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Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state-0e415b192aa1?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?

pro-Russian ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

pro-Ukraine ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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