Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by EOY 2024?
Dec 31
  • The bet will be considered POSITIVE if a frozen conflict is established in Ukraine by December 31st, 2024, similar to war in Donbass from 2015 to 2021. This is defined as:

    1. A formal or not formal ceasefire agreement is in place

    2. No major kinetic military operations, major shelling, or battles occur for a consecutive 3 month period

    3. Some Russian forces remain occupying parts of Ukraine

    4. Political resolution talks stall with no comprehensive peace deal

  • The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if active fighting and major kinetic warfare in Ukraine continues to occur consistently throughout 2024, with no ceasefire longer than 2 months.

  • If by December 31st, 2024, a definitive frozen conflict has not set in, but hostilities have also not ceased, the bet will be considered N/A.

Frozen conflict by EOY 2024 (you are here)

Frozen conflict by EOY 2025 link

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Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?


EOY 2024?


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pro-Russian ceasefire?


pro-Ukraine ceasefire?


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  • Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?


  • Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?


  • Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?


  • Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?


  • Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?


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