Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
1k
2025
11%
chance

For the bet to resolve as «yes»:

1. Official Annexation Declaration: The resolution is contingent on an official declaration by the Russian government confirming the annexation of Transnistria.

2. Presence of Russian Military Forces: Successful resolution requires the deployment and sustained presence of Russian military forces within Transnistria.

3. Transnistrian Acceptance: The annexation is contingent on Transnistria expressing and demonstrating acceptance of the annexation, either through official statements, local government actions, or public sentiment.

4. Verification by Reliable News Sources: Verification should be based on credible news sources or official statements by recognized authorities.

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One relevant piece of context is that Transnistria is landlocked and has no operational airport. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_Transnistria

Its surrounding countries do not have friendly relations with Russia. For example, the Russian "peacekeeper" soldiers stationed in Transnistria used to come and go via airports in Moldova and Ukraine, but they are no longer able to do so: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operational_Group_of_Russian_Forces#Calls_for_withdraw_and_UN_resolution

So it's hard to see how Russia could project force into Transnistria. I guess they could use paratroopers, or helicopters, or land on the old runways at a currently-unused airport. Seems like a big bottleneck though.

I have questions about how condition 2 of the bet could resolve.
- Do the Russian soldiers currently deployed in Transnistria satisfy condition 2?
- If Russia declares that the current Transnistrian paramilitary forces are officially part of the Russian military, does that satisfy condition 2?

@PeterFavaloro Based on the wording, the Russian troops already present in Transnistria likely do not fully satisfy condition 2 on their own. The condition specifies "deployment and sustained presence of Russian military forces within Transnistria" in the context of an actual annexed/occupied territory. The existing Russian military contingent was already there prior to any hypothetical annexation. To unambiguously meet condition 2 for a "YES" resolution, Russia would likely need to overtly deploy additional military units from Russia into Transnistria following any declaration of annexation. Simply recognizing the local forces as Russian would not constitute a clear "deployment" of forces in the wake of annexation.

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