What will be true of Volodymyr Zelensky in 2024?
65
441
3.4k
Dec 31
67%
He will visit Washington DC
60%
He will be target of an assassination attempt
58%
He will be on Time magazine's shortlist for Person of the Year
50%
He will visit the United Kingdom
38%
He will visit Israel
28%
He will be the target of a coup attempt
27%
He will mock or insult Tucker Carlson
21%
He will not be the President of Ukraine
21%
He will express a serious preference for a candidate in the 2024 United States Presidential Election.
20%
He will dance on camera
19%
He will meet Donald Trump
14%
He will sign a contract with Netflix to produce or appear in an original documentary or docuseries
10%
He will resign
9%
He will meet Vladimir Putin
7%
He will die
7%
He will be seriously wounded
3%
He will flee Ukraine and take up residence in the United Kingdom

General rules

This is a free response market. Users may submit answers that are pertinent to the question posed in the market title. These answers, once submitted, will become my responsibility to resolve appropriately. As new answers are added, I may clarify their resolution criteria in the description if necessary.

I may edit submitted answers for the sake of clarity (e.g. to fix spelling errors). I will not, however, meaningfully change the wording of any answer that has already been traded on. I reserve the right to resolve duplicate, inappropriate and overly ambiguous answers to N/A.

I may bet in this market, although I will refrain from investing heavily in answers when I foresee that their resolution may be contentious.

Answers are unlinked and any number of them may resolve YES.

Information specific to each answer

"He will be target of an assassination attempt" and "He will be the target of a coup attempt"

There will need to be compelling evidence for a YES resolution on each of these answers. Unfounded claims will not be sufficient.

"He will not be the President of Ukraine"

This answer will resolve YES if Zelensky ceases to be the President of Ukraine at any point in 2024, including in the event of his death. It will resolve NO if he remains President throughout the year.

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He will be target of an assassination attempt

@Ziddletwix

As I clarified in the description:

"He will be target of an assassination attempt" and "He will be the target of a coup attempt"

There will need to be compelling evidence for a YES resolution on each of these answers. Unfounded claims will not be sufficient.

Now, to take a paragraph from the Independent article you've cited:

Without providing evidence, they wrote: “The enemy was actively developing plans to eliminate President Volodymyr Zelensky.

For now, I cannot possibly determine that there is 'compelling evidence' if this is merely a claim accompanied by (reportedly) no evidence. If evidence of an assassination attempt does emerge, I will, of course, consider it.

The Independent article alludes to the fact that Ukrainian authorities claim to have thwarted assassination attempts on Zelensky rather frequently, which is exactly what I had in mind when I wrote the clarification. If such claims (sans evidence) were sufficient to resolve this answer to YES, I suspect it would have been at >90% probability all along as the SBU seems to reliably make this claim at least once a year... and for all I know, it may well be true each time, but for the purpose of this market, compelling evidence = YES, significant doubt = N/A, no evidence = NO.

Sorry for the long-winded party-pooping post. I'm off to bed now, but I'll see where this is at when I wake up – perhaps there will be new developments. Regardless, thank you for bringing the news to my attention.

Thank you to those who have added new answers. As promised, I have clarified the resolution criteria for some of these answers in the description.

@a_l_e_x thanks for clarifying 👍