Made a more specific market: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-russia-launch-major-offensive-9c5e3e376432

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pyv8q94g1o

It's spelled Kharkiv.

Depends on the definition of "major offensive"

@RemNi Yeah, but it I think it would be pretty obvious if it happened. Strict resolution criteria make questions more about them.

@de27 What if Russia increases the pressure around the city to pin Ukrainian soldiers there while their main offensive occurs elsewhere?

@RemNi This to be decided by general consensus as written in the description. I think if ground forces will make a large push in Kharkov region, even if the goal is to distract, it will be covered as as a major offensive.

@de27 But what does that mean? If there are headlines from BBC and New York Times with the term "large offensive in Kharkiv" or something, does that resolve this question as yes? Even if it's only these two outlets and they don't say the term "major offensive"?

@RemNi As I already said I don't like strict criteria. I will attempt to resolve this question as close to the real events as possible. There will be no technicalities about specific wording.

@de27 Sure ok. Problem is that such a choice makes the market epistemically weak. You're likely to get bad ratings if you give a resolution that is biased.

@de27 Adding a slightly more specific set of criteria makes the resolution more neutral, and that improves the quality of the market.

@RemNi I can deal with it. It's much worse for me when people bet because of the criteria and not the actual intent of the question. What happened with this for example was quite bad.