Will Ukraine deploy F-16 fighter jets in Ukrainian airspace before June 21, 2024?
resolved Jun 21

This market predicts whether Ukraine will deploy F-16 fighter jets in its national airspace before June 21, 2024. The resolution of this question hinges on credible reports from major global news organizations or official statements from the Ukrainian government or military confirming the deployment of F-16 jets for any purpose, including training, combat, or patrol missions within Ukrainian airspace.

"Ukrainian airspace" for the purposes of this prediction market question includes all airspace above the land and territorial waters of Ukraine as internationally recognized prior to the conflict, including the airspace above disputed territories such as Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. This definition extends to any region claimed by Ukraine as per 2nd of May 2024, despite current control or occupation by foreign powers or separatist groups.

Resolution Criteria:

  1. Positive Resolution: The market will resolve positively if there is confirmed deployment of F-16 jets within Ukrainian airspace, as reported by reputable news sources such as Reuters, BBC, or similar, or through official communication from the Ukrainian government or military. The deployment must occur before June 21, 2024 00:00 CET.

  2. Negative Resolution: The market will resolve negatively if no such deployment has been confirmed by June 21, 2024.

  3. Clarifications:

    • Deployment refers to F-16 jets taking off, landing, or flying within Ukrainian airspace.

    • The resolution is based on the first confirmed instance of such deployment.

    • Reports must be clear and specific about the use of F-16 jets, not other aircraft types.

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