Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?
148
2026
72%
chance

For the bet to be resolve as "yes," the following criteria could be established:

1. Scheduled Flights: Commercial flights must resume regular, scheduled operations from at least one Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026.

2. International Routes: The resumption should include flights on international routes, not limited to domestic services.

3. Operational Stability: The resumed commercial flights should demonstrate a level of operational stability, indicating a sustainable return to normalcy in the aviation sector.

4. Official Recognition: Recognized aviation authorities or international organizations should acknowledge the reopening of commercial flights from Ukrainian airports.

5. No Significant Restrictions: The resumption should occur without significant travel restrictions or disruptions that would impede regular commercial air travel.

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Air traffic in Ukraine can start already this year, - General Director of ACI Europe.

"I think with high probability that the first flights in Ukraine will begin to be performed by the end of 2024. Despite the military risks, Ukraine does not stop trains, and they are very slow, unlike airplanes. However, for some reason, everyone decided that aviation is more dangerous," said Olivier Yankovets.

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