Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2026, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.
Russia must have control of at least two of the following locations:
Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000
Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast
Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000
Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000
Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600
Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000
Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000
Russia must also have control of all of the following locations:
Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol
Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900
Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600
Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000
Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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