If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]
αΉ€1k
2029
74%
Decisive Russian military victory
68%
Western aid shortage / economic collapse in Ukraine
57%
Black swan geopolitical events 🦒
49%
Trump wins US elections and forces Ukraine to cede territories
44%
Ukraine runs out of soldiers - further mobilization not feasible
29%
Collapse of Ukraine's government

This bet will be on the cause and conditions of a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Specifically - If Russia secures a ceasefire favorable to its interests by end of war, what would be judged by experts as the primary causal driver that enabled this outcome?

The bet option/s will be resolved as "YES" if:

  1. A ceasefire is achieved that experts broadly agree substantially favors russian interests AND

  2. The panel of experts determines one or more of the options listed is the primary driver enabling Russia to achieve a favorable outcome

If a ceasefire is achieved on terms favorable to Ukraine or the West the bet will resolve as "N/A". See my other bet (here) to bet on the driver of ceasefire on Ukrainian/allied terms.

Probable drivers, mentioned in the bet:

A) Decisive russian military victory enabling imposition of peace terms

Criteria: Capture of Ukraine's capital or other strategic cities that force Ukraine to make a ceasefire agreement on russian terms.

B) Ukraine government collapse and replacement with pro-Russian leadership Criteria: Resignation/removal of Zelenskyy and new Russia-friendly president

C) Ukraine economic collapse forcing acceptance of russian terms

Criteria: Significant decrease in Western aid, leading to economic collapse of Ukraine

D) Unforeseen political/geopolitical events leading Ukraine to concessions

Criteria: Events outside military, leadership and economic realms

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Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state-0e415b192aa1?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?

pro-Russian ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

pro-Ukraine ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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