Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?
148
2025
35%
chance

This bet will resolve as 'yes' if Ukrainian private military companies (PMCs) will start being deployed in large operations in the war before the end of 2025:

  • The operations must include ground combat roles for a PMC unit of at least 500 armed contractors fighting against Russian invasion forces.

  • The PMC unit must be composed of contractors working for an entity that meets the definition of a private military company: A private company providing organized armed security, combat or military training services for profit.

  • There must be photographic or video evidence clearly verifying the identity of the PMC and the scale of their deployment as part of the operation.

  • Alternatively, their participation could be officially acknowledged by either the Ukrainian government or military command or consensus of reputable observers of Ukrainian-Russian war.

  • The operations may be undertaken independently by the PMC or in conjunction with Ukrainian military forces.

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