What unsolved mysteries will have major developments before 2025? [Free Response - Unlinked]
Where is Ilya Sutskever? https://twitter.com/ilyasut
The nature of the One Piece https://onepiece.fandom.com/wiki/One_Piece
The source of extreme energy cosmic rays https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-high-energy_cosmic_ray
The Pentagon "Tic Tac" UFO Videos: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentagon_UFO_videos
The mechanism for sonoluminescence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonoluminescence
The values of the neutrino masses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutrino#Mass
The composition of dark matter: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter
The reason for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370's disapperance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370_disappearance_theories
Vacuum catastrophe/cosmological constant problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmological_constant_problem

This is an unlinked free response market. If you submit an option and people trade on it, you'll get mana for each unique trader!

You can submit pretty much any mystery you like as long as you include a link explaining what the mystery is. Ideally this would be a link to the mystery's Wikipedia page, or a similarly neutral summary. Wikis for a fictional property are good for fictional mysteries.

Please try to submit specific mysteries, rather than a general category. So rather than submitting "UFOs", submit options like "The Pentagon Tic Tac UFO Videos". Insufficiently specific or mysterious submisisons will be N/A-ed.

An option will resolve yes if a link is posted in the comments to a reliable source presenting new information which makes a mystery significantly less mysterious. At market close in 2025, all remaining options resolve to No.

My goal is broadly to count things which are about as significant as the most significant previous developments in a mystery, while not requiring a mystery to be solved to resolve yes.

Examples of things which would count:

  • An OpenAI board member doing a tell-all interview where they explain why they fired Sam Altman without being vague.

  • The pentagon releases new tic tac videos.

  • We learn that the One Piece is some sort of weapon.

  • We find the main cabin of Flight 370 at the bottom of the ocean.

Examples of things which would not count:

  • A new OpenAI story is published like the one about Q* from anonymous sources.

  • Someone releaseas a new anaylsis of the TIc Tac videos which supports some explanations and debunks others, but doesn't add significant new information.

  • We learn where the One Piece is, but not anything about what it is.

  • We find another small piece of debris from Flight 370.

You are welcome to DM me if you think you have something that might count but you want to confirm that this is true before posting in the comments. I will try to trade on every option submitted if I know anything about it, but will not hold any large positions in this market so as to keep myself unbiased.

These rules should be considered to be in Draft Form as of market creation, and I may update them if people suggest significant improvements in the spirit of the question.

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The Hubble tension https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Hubble_tension

Wendy Freedman, a leading figure in this field, has led a comprehensive blind analysis of JWST data which gives an estimate which would fully resolve the Hubble tension within expected error bars.


Strong CP problem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_CP_problem

not the branding I would have picked

The existence of historical Jesus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_Jesus

Unlikely to have major developments since there is already consensus on this one

The Hubble tension https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Hubble_tension
bought Ṁ10 The Hubble tension h... NO

I can't believe this doesn't have its own Wikipedia article.

The values of the neutrino masses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutrino#Mass
bought Ṁ10 The values of the ne... NO

The intention of the wording here is that a major development towards finding the value of any neutrino mass eigenstate would count. But I wouldn't count something like, "We lowered the upper bound for this one, but the interval of possible values still contains zero."

The Riemann Hypothesis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_hypothesis

Would something short of a proof or disproof suffice for this? There could be developments in the sense of progress being made toward a proof, but that wouldn't really make it less mysterious.

Also, how about a proof that RH is independent of ZFC? That would make it way more mysterious, but also be a major development.

@PlasmaBallin Hmmm the spirit of the market is that the development gets us closer to the answer, but I guess discovering that we are wrong about something and thus that the mystery is more mysterious is still getting us closer to the answer by getting us further away from the wrong path people were going down.

I don't know how major that specific development would be though. I'd want to see headlines written about it or something for it to count, ideally. Or at least significant updates to the Wikipedia page.

Awesome market. The best thing is that fairly soon we get an idea of the relative ranking of mysteries

In markets like this it might be fun to bet about final results, that for example option X will be higher at date D than option Y

bought Ṁ10 of The reason for Malay... NO

It might be nice if the market owner moved the links into the description so they'd be clickable and the options would look nice.

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