For the market to resolve as “Yes”, by January 1, 2026 or earlier following criterias should be met:
1. Official Announcement: Ukrainian authorities must make an official announcement or policy change explicitly lifting the travel ban abroad for male citizens aged 18-60.
2. Effective Implementation: The lifting of the travel ban abroad should be effectively implemented, allowing unrestricted travel for this demographic group.
3. No Significant Restrictions: There should be no substantial additional travel restrictions or conditions imposed on this age group that would hinder their ability to travel freely.
4. Publicly Acknowledged: The change in travel restrictions should be publicly acknowledged by relevant authorities or government entities, ensuring transparency and recognition of the policy modification.
5. No Reimposition: There should be no reimposition of the travel ban for this demographic group at least for 3 consecutive months or before January 1, 2026.
1,000Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:
Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:
EOY 2025?
EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?
pro-Russian ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
pro-Ukraine ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M