Forrest Taylor's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.36
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Forrest Taylor bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ1,000
- Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ1,000
- Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?YESṀ1,000
95%
97%
- Will Michelle Yeoh win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as Evelyn Quan Wang in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' at the 95th Academy Awards?YESṀ2,000
- Will I have >= 300 unique traders by the end of February?YESṀ1,000
- Donald Trump's return on Instagram: Will @realdonaldtrump post on Instagram in 2023?YESṀ1,000