Most likely at the OpenAI/Microsoft press event.
(In case they announce something similar to GPT-4 but don't quite call it that, I'll interpret the resolution criteria based on what seems reasonable to me; therefore, I won't bet in this market).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ117 | |
| 2 | Ṁ111 | |
| 3 | Ṁ98 | |
| 4 | Ṁ79 | |
| 5 | Ṁ77 |
People are also trading
@AndrewG hahaha alright! With everything that's happening, shouldn't rule that kind of announcement out yet!
Opportunity for arbitrage with Will Microsoft's Bing announcement on 2/7/2023 include any explicit mention of GPT-4? | Manifold Markets
@MichaelChen I see where you're coming from but I'm confused whether any explicit mention of GPT-4 would constitute an "announcement". For example, if they say something like "As for those rumours about GPT-4, you'll have to wait and see." Or "To be clear, this is not GPT-4", I wouldn't consider this an announcement.
@MichaelChen And this could also go the other way obviously, if they announce a GPT-4-like thing but never mention "GPT-4".