Will Donald Trump be indicted for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2023?
resolved Mar 31

Resolves the same as https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a except ending in 2023

Jul 27, 2:35am: to clarify, including in 2022

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Mason avatar

Will Trump face indictment,
For crimes he may have committed?
By the end of 2023,
His fate will be permitted.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Since there are multiple possible indictments, I've created a market to see if he will be indicted multiple times.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ1,000 of YES


The Manhattan district attorney’s office recently signaled to Donald J. Trump’s lawyers that he could face criminal charges for his role in the payment of hush money to a porn star, the strongest indication yet that prosecutors are nearing an indictment of the former president, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.

The prosecutors offered Mr. Trump the chance to testify next week before the grand jury that has been hearing evidence in the potential case, the people said. Such offers almost always indicate an indictment is close; it would be unusual for the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, to notify a potential defendant without ultimately seeking charges against him.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted YES at 68%
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted NO at 70%

Made longer and shorter time frame markets for those who think it will happen but disagree over when.



Bot avatar
Arrrrrrr 🤖Botbought Ṁ48 of NO


tofu avatar


jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ50 of YES

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/18/politics/justice-department-trump-special-counsel/index.html "DOJ announces special counsel for Trump-related Mar-a-Lago and January 6 criminal investigations"

MattP avatar
Matt Ppredicted NO at 60%

Note for posterity and clarification: Tish James' recently filed lawsuit against Trump and his company is not an indictment. It's a civil case.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 69%

@MattP His company is under criminal indictment currently though, you know for posterity and such.

MattP avatar
Matt Ppredicted NO at 69%

@BTE Sure - I just didn't want someone to get all excited about the Tish James news and prematurely resolve YES.

PSF avatar
[insert here] delenda estbought Ṁ35 of NO

@BTE Yes, but that is not Donald Trump

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 73%

@PatrickFitzgerald1bc8 For sure, but that was 5 months ago. I think you should check out Fulton County. "Imminent" is I believe how the announcement is described by the DA.

LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Oliviapredicted YES at 67%
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ25 of NO

They’re highlighting what they “hoped” to find which is a hint they didn’t find anything.

(Leaving aside these clowns had Epstein’s attorney, who also gave Epstein a sweetheart deal then went to work for him, and who isn’t even an Article III judge, grant the warrant.)

Garland and the two AGs aren’t exactly the sharpest tools in the shed, looking less and less likely. Continued missteps and/or evidence the whole thing is for personal/agency/msnbc-viewer eyeballs rather than a serious path to indictment.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES at 56%

@Gigacasting Sometimes I think you might be Roger Stone. That’s a compliment.

MattP avatar
Matt Ppredicted NO at 70%

Trump's supporters (and some opponents) are fond of saying that if he is indicted, it will only make him stronger. Are they right?


BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwards So during 2023 or between now and the end of 2023?
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Olivia @BTE between now and end of 2023