This is question #23 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ31,210 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5,110 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,962 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,847 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,662 |
@ShitakiIntaki there's a substantial chance that the charges will be dropped and there will be no need to state an obvious NO resolution
@ShitakiIntaki 2-4 times a week, but most of them are not about the prediction contest.
@SovietStali This market seems to be set up a to only be able to resolve NO on January 1, 2024, but could resolve YES anytime before that based upon Scott Alexander's opinion. Seems like you may be barking up the wrong tree, to use a colloquialism, and your arguments would be best made to Mr. Alexander, the sole arbiter in this market.
@SovietStali the question wasn't "will Donald Trump be indicted in a way @SovietStali deems valid?", it was "will Donald Trump be indicted on criminal charges?".
Prosecutors can (and frequently do!) over-charge, stretch the law to achieve indictments, etc. That's why we have due process - if the charges are indeed as unwise/invalid as many are saying, he'll beat them in court.
@ACXBot Please resolve this YES.
(It's been discussed a few times in these "resolves according to judgement of X" questions, if there's any unexpected surprises, the market can always be re-resolved. Resolving promptly is much preferable compared to locking up people's mana unnecessarily.)
@IsaacKing @jack He has already resolved one of these markets so I would expect him to resolve it soon.
I think the account is run by Manifold, not Scott.
But yes, https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/39-will-openai-release-gpt4-in-2023 was already resolved and this one should too.
@IsaacKing "The payment was legal - but Trump allegedly recorded it as a business expense. Falsifying business records is illegal in New York." From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-64993429
@IsaacKing It’s being reported as more than 30 counts, we’ll have to get more information on what all ends up being in scope. It sounds like a repeated crime of some kind.
It’s also very likely that multiple people are on the receiving end of payments, and possibly even others acting with him in the alleged crime.
@Isaac228c Could plausibly be interpreted as a valid business expense for PR purposes, to pay someone to spike a story that would reflect badly on the business' figurehead.