@BTE "future defendants" sounds fairly certain, right?

@andrew Sure does. Her regular grand jury meets once a week on Tuesday I believe so probably today!!!

@BTE my sentiments exactly! ;)

@MattP This prosecutor Fani Willis is elected. Which means she faces consequences for inaction. This is the Cook County of the south. Charges are near certain. Doesn’t mean convicted, but charged.

@BTE "Charges are near certain. Doesn’t mean convicted, but charged."

I'd advise reexamining this statement. DAs do not like to bring cases they aren't nearly certain they will win. Bringing a case against a former president who is running for a second term and who would almost certainly be able to use an indictment to boost his political chances?

All I'll say is: if you come at the king, you best not miss.

I think the prosecutor is likely smarter than that. She won't bring a case unless she's certain she can get a conviction - and while I think there's a case there, it's not more than 50/50.

@MattP I have not read a single legal analysis that says this is 50/50. Not one. Every respectable, non-partisan lawyer I have read says this case is a slam dunk against Trump. Plus, the jury is almost guaranteed to be heavily stacked against Trump. I think it is merely a question of whether you just charge Trump, or you charge it as RICO. Willis is a RICO expert and has taken down several Atlanta street gangs that way. I seriously doubt she is more scared of Trump than Atlanta street gangs. You are wishing and hoping history still matters when it comes to Trump. Good luck with that.

@BTE this isn't a matter of my wishes, it's a matter of what I predict will happen.

@Gigacasting again you are forgetting this is Fulton County. It might as well be Cook County in terms of how they feel about Trump. Not charging him will be received as well as the Cook County DA dropping the original charges against Jussie Smollett for pretending to get beat up by someone that matches your description actually while walking home from subway at 3am on the Gold Coast. In other words, not well. The people in Fulton County don't give a shit about Trump or how important he used to be. I guess you can just stick to the Teflon Don idea because it has held so far, but don't forget what happened to the original Teflon Don - he died in the supermax.

@AndrewHartman the way Manifold's AMM is designed, it requires a large amount of liquidity to get significant "inertia". Practically speaking, the vast majority of "inertia" in markets is provided by limit orders (the same way real-world securities markets work). There's a big limit floor at 56% for this market, and a smaller though not insignificant limit ceiling at 70%. Thus, it might be more accurate to think of the "market probability" as ~56%-70%, rather than a single number.

@AndrewHartman I do wish Manifold would add a display tab for seeing who holds what shares, though. That info is already extractable from the "bets" tab, this would just be a more user-friendly way of seeing it. That way we'd be able to see if the "YES" here is almost entirely due to (for example) BTE single-handedly betting YES against everyone who bets NO, or if the betting community is actually somewhat split on it.

@MattP I was aware of the limit orders being a thing that existed, but didn't bother to check for them here because who the hell would pick 56% specifically? I'm hard pressed to imagine a scenario in which this question has such a clearly calculable value and it's right there. I guess maybe as a tactical choice for a question you think is a little more likely than not it works? Still seems like you're going to be leaving a lot of money on the table though.

@AndrewHartman might as well ask who would pick $113.43 per price of Google vs $113.44? That's how we end up with a market consensus, people are forced by other limit orders outbidding them to decide how high/low they're willing to go. Or it's all bots trading with each other.

@MattP Eh, I think there is a nontrivial difference - the underlying value of stock is mostly calculable, in theory (value of assets held plus the weighted expectation of dividends, etc.). There's not really any underlying value to shares in a prediction market, beyond the EV that arises from your assessment of its probable resolution (i.e. you don't own anything for owning the shares). Yes, obviously market consensus is the whole point of the procedure - but prediction is inherently harder than accounting.

@AndrewHartman I have had so many limit orders execute on the wild swings in this market. I am the YES whale but honestly didn't get so big on purpose. It is harder to unwind than it is to build up.

@MattP No, this markets extends until there is a definitive outcome. The Fulton County DA is required to make a decision one way or the other after the grand jury expires later this year. Would you prefer I extend it out to the end of the DA’s current term?

@MattP That would be the end of 2024. I think that makes sense if nobody has any objections.

@BTE IMO you should either extend the close date to some arbitrarily long time (eg 2025) or treat it as a time limit. Leaving it to the end of the year but extending it at the last minute might confuse people.

@MattP I think you are right. I am gonna do that now.

@MattP It's actually not updating on mobile. Hmm.