BTE avatar
closes 
Jan 1, 2023
Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?
52%
chance

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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$5 of NOa month ago
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 51% a month ago
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AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman bought M$50 of NOa month ago
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MattP avatar
Matt P is predicting NO at 56% a month ago
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MattP avatar
Matt P is predicting NO at 56% a month ago
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AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman is predicting NO at 56% a month ago
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MattP avatar
Matt P bought M$50 of NOa month ago
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AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman is predicting NO at 56% a month ago
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 56% a month ago
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MattP avatar
Matt P is predicting NO at 71% 2 months ago
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 70% 2 months ago
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 70% 2 months ago
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$25 of YES2 months ago
Updated: Charging a candidate looks terrible. They either need to do it quickly or not do it (the resolution criteria are bizarre but ultimately this will need to close by the election to not be obviously a fake market with only one possible answer) This should be higher: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a This market should be lower: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-gigacastings-most-recent-hunte Also the DA doesn’t look very competent. And the whole thing is and always was political grandstanding that will come back to the haunt the left: https://youtu.be/KqR44wxx4h8
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting is predicting NO at 69% 2 months ago
Further: January 6 will be long forgotten like that silly “Putin” thing and the “Ukraine whatever” psyops. CNN will sell ads with it but it all looks clownish a few years later—there was a phone call they spent $25 million investigating? Related: “….said they think Trump should be charged with a crime, including 9 in 10 Democrats but only 10% of Republicans. …. Six in 10 respondents said they don't think Trump will face any charges.” This is the very definition of a one-sided political prosecution that will demolish the Democrats if they pursue it. Probably more amusing if they do, and Trump wins a landslide mandate once the mail in vote fraud fades away this time. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/21/1112546450/a-majority-thinks-trump-is-to-blame-for-jan-6-but-wont-face-charges-poll-finds
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 61% 2 months ago
@Gigacasting Your analysis lacks one critical component - common sense. As far as I can tell you (and the people questioned in those polls you cite) aren't even addressing whether or not you think Trump committed a crime, only pointing out that it becomes a political prosecution when he is a candidate for office, which is right out of the Hillary Clinton Vast Right Wing Conspiracy playbook, but also totally irrelevant. If it mattered at all everyone charged with or even investigated for a crime would simply declare as a candidate for something. The January 6 committee did operate as a one sided political prosecution, that is what Congress does and it is largely because McCarthy was criminally negligent in not participating so if anything it was a self-inflicted persecution, but that is totally irrelevant to this market. This market is about a criminal prosecution based actions taken well before January 6 which were captured on tape. The facts are not in dispute by anyone, the only out available is to call it a "witch hunt" or whatever and that, my friend, is the argument of an incompetent and/or guilty person. It would be easier to buy the fishing expedition excuse if it were an investigation into Trump's business or taxes or some bullshit like that where he was probably smart enough to insulate himself from any questionable activity. But the evidence against him is so overwhelming even his defenders, yourself included, don't even bother to address the facts in the case because they are indefensible, so you fall back on what amounts to an argument that Trump is above the law so long as he is politically active. Very strange how so many of you thought Hillary Clinton should have been charged for a crime weeks before the election in 2016. I don't know enough about Fani Willis to judge her competence, but I can say she is absolutely fearless so I doubt any intimidation or fear of reprisal is going to influence her. https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/atlanta-da-reveals-more-high-profile-rico-cases-are-coming-in-the-next-60-days-report-news.155077.html
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$24 of YES2 months ago
Hillary should be in jail for how her voice sounds; anyone who thinks this is a serious indictment for an actual crime has lost the plot — along with anyone who doesn’t think this will help him electorally
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 72% 2 months ago
@Gigacasting I don’t think whether or not it helps him electorally is relevant to the decision to charge him. However, some of the crimes he could be charged with carry the penalty of being prohibited from ever holding elected office if convicted. It’s a zero sum game, if you shoot and miss he emerges stronger, but if you hit he is dead politically. I do think his prosecution could open the door for one of his children to fill the void, presenting the perfect opportunity for him to pass the torch and maintain total loyalty among his base and therefore actual power by proxy.
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Charlie avatar
Charlie is predicting NO at 61% 2 months ago
@Gigacasting “along with anyone who doesn’t think this will help him electorally” I wonder what a market testing this claim would look like.
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Accountdeletionrequested avatar
it is not clear when it will resolve as no if charges will not be filed
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 75% 2 months ago
@M Resolves NO when the prosecutor announces the outcome of the grand jury and Trump is not charged with a crime. The market will remain open until there is a formal announcement of charges filed or not filed against Trump.
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Accountdeletionrequested avatar
@BTE Are they obligated to make formal announcement of charges not filed against Trump, if they decide to not do this?
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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall is predicting NO at 65% 2 months ago
@M They sure aren't! And they also aren't obligated to announce charges, as Julian Assange can tell you. (I am not a lawyer, if you think you may have committed treason, please consult a lawyer, not a prediction market)
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 65% 2 months ago
@M the decision is actually with the DA not the grand jury, which can only make recommendations. This question is about whether real charges are filed.
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MattP avatar
Matt P is predicting NO at 65% 2 months ago
@BTE are you resolving based on grand jury recommendation or DA decision?
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 65% 2 months ago
@MattP grand jury proceedings are confidential so we may never know what the recommendation is so I am going on the DA decision.
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MattP avatar
Matt P is predicting NO at 65% 2 months ago
@BTE gotcha, so it's more like "will Trump be charged by the DA in Georgia"?
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 65% 2 months ago
@MattP yes and now I can actually update it!
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 65% 2 months ago
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/19/false-georgia-electors-da-probe-00046593 I think they are going to bring RICO charges against the entire conspiracy led by Trump. That is the prosecutors specialty and by making the fake electors criminal targets it shows she is thinking about this case as a massive conspiracy.
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$35 of NO3 months ago
60% chance he’s a Presidential candidate + 70% chance he’s indicted = at least a 30% chance he’s under indictment and the nominee 🤔
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 63% 3 months ago
@Gigacasting There have been candidates to run their entire campaign from jail and do fairly well, for socialists. Several of the things he could be charged with come with a lifetime ban from holding public office. This case aside, if convicted of taking boxes of classified documents taken to Florida have only one penalty and it is lifetime ban from holding federal office. The only reason Hillary Clinton didn't get charged, remember, is because she was smart enough to destroy the evidence completely with fire.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 63% 3 months ago
@Gigacasting Also, who cares if he is a candidate?? Or even if he becomes president? Have you forgotten about Tom DeLay, Rod Blagojevich, George Ryan, Jesse Jackson, Jr? My first job out of college was in Speaker Denny Hastert's office in DC and look at how far he fell. Politicians in this country can go to jail, it happens A LOT.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 63% 3 months ago
@Gigacasting I was just about to share the AJC article. The prosecutor is tough as nails, she just indicted a very violent street gang with RICO charges, she is going to charge Trump.
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RationalOttawa avatar
How does this resolve if he is indicted by the grand jury in 2023, after market close?
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 63% 3 months ago
@RationalOttawa It would resolve YES. I purposely did not specify a timeframe for when the indictment is filed. I could potentially extend the close date, but I don't have strong feelings one way or the other. Open to reasons to extend.
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RationalOttawa avatar
@BTE ok, wasn't sure whether the close date was an implied time limit or not. I don't know how long this kind of process takes but 12+ months wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting is predicting NO at 57% 3 months ago
The first rule of forecasting is “it’s all base rates.” You might even be smart enough to guess the second rule.
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$40 of NO3 months ago
Lol dudes will literally think the front-runner to win the election is going to be indicted for “whining about the election” instead of going to therapy (And that indicting Trump wouldn’t energize his base and sweep the House, Senate, and Presidency for the GOP)
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BTE avatar
BTE bought M$25 of YES3 months ago
@Gigacasting I don't care that he is whining now, in fact I kind of enjoy watching him flail in public every chance he gets. I only cared up to the point a crime was clearly committed, which was all while he was still president. I can't believe anyone would want someone so incredibly pathetic to be their president. I guess being loyal to a guy who literally has never been loyal to anyone in his entire life makes sense, if you fucking hate yourself. Personally, I prefer to have serious people who are actually interested in doing the job as my president. Also be nice if they capped them under the age of 60. Anyway, willfully ignoring reality is not a defense. He can say there was fraud all he wants, but if it isn't proven to be true, well then it is itself fraud. Bill Barr is going to make for a very credible prosecution witness. I get that you really don't want to acknowledge these basic facts, and that kinda makes sense I guess since that is your guy's only move. "You don't get to be simultaneously oppressor and victim." - Jordan Peterson
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting is predicting NO at 57% 3 months ago
LOL at thinking the president has any power in today’s government, or that “saying there is fraud and being wrong” is a crime “Oh no you libeled the political machine that’s a felony!” -Stalin, probably
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 55% 3 months ago
@Gigacasting not necessary to have any power, though it was clear that Trump definitely thought the president had power at the time. The things you say make it very clear you, like your hero, have no interest whatsoever in the actual facts. In this case the crimes are on tape. The evidentiary record is strong, and Georgia criminal law explicitly bars solicitation and conspiracy to commit election fraud, as well as providing avenues for prosecutors to pursue RICO charges which may well apply to Trump. Not to mention Fulton County is also among the least MAGA counties in the South, so charging him at least locally will be very popular.
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Conflux avatar
Conflux bought M$50 of NO3 months ago
hedge
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$40 of NO3 months ago
Lock him up!
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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall bought M$30 of NO4 months ago
@Gigacasting partial arbitrage because the jury could charge him in 2023, but that doesn't justify this much of a gap.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 44% 4 months ago
@MartinRandall If I could bet this to 100 percent I would. I can't wait to take all of @gigacasting mana. There is only one reason Trump might avoid charges and that is because he has shown he will definitely use mob violence to avoid negative consequences. However, Merrick Garland is 10x the man Trump is and will absolutely not cower. I have been watching stuff on Nixon and he was clearly a psychopath who wanted to destroy his enemies at all costs, but when he lost he was gracious (despite having better case than Trump to challenge) and when he won he won BIG and despite his dishonorable resignation he went out a winner. Trump is the biggest loser, literally and figuratively, in modern history. I can't wait to see him in a Fulton County jail sans secret service soon.
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MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall is predicting NO at 57% 3 months ago
@BTE you should definitely bet this to 99% so I can get better odds.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 44% 4 months ago
Steve Bannon's utter meltdown on his podcast threatening to impeach the entire Justice Dept of Trump is charged is the best evidence yet that they know they are screwed.
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting bought M$50 of NO4 months ago
Anything less than 99% is reasonable doubt. For the sake of our “democracy” aka actually a constitutional republic slash behemoth entrenched administrative state, bid this higher!
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting is predicting NO at 44% 4 months ago
Clearly Trump will be indicted, convicted, and then publicly beheaded. Anyone who questions any aspect of the election process, like the fake “pipe leak” and last-minute shifts in the absentee ballot totals in only a few key swing states should likewise join him on the guillotine. Our democracy will cease to exist if anyone anywhere comments on election processes!
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting is predicting NO at 44% 4 months ago
Further, anyone betting NO on this market should likewise be tried and convicted as Trump’s accomplice in insurrection against democracy. Team Trump Derangement Syndrome Strong!
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 41% 4 months ago
@Gigacasting You aren't biased at all, clearly. I guess it is deranged to think the president shouldn't, idk, break the law. FYI, it is election fraud to claim there was election fraud when you have been told there was no election fraud by law enforcement (i.e. the Attorney General of the United States). You: "But the pipe leak conspiracy!!!" Me: LMFAO!!!!
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting is predicting NO at 48% 4 months ago
I agree 100%; anyone who even hints at the possibility of election fraud should be summarily shot. Suspend habeas corpus and send the troops door to door, confiscating guns and shooting everyone who refuses to pledge allegiance to the Biden regime.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 44% 4 months ago
@Gigacasting you're obviously not the least bit insecure about this.
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ZianChoy avatar
Couple of priors from https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/list?series_filter=Federal%20Justice%20Statistics - 35.3% of public order cases get dropped - If it were a federal grand jury, there's a ~7.6% chance a case gets dropped at this point regardless of the nature of the offense Couldn't find any relevant statistics from https://cjcc.georgia.gov/about-sac/statistical-data-resources.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 65% 4 months ago
@ZianChoy Thanks for sharing the stats! I feel like you don’t convene a grand jury like this unless you really think he committed a crime. I mean we have all heard the tapes, the lawyer from the secretary of state’s office warned Trump he was compromising himself and Trump literally threatened him in response. It was so clearly a crime, the exact crime he constantly claims to be a victim of nonetheless. I really hope this is how he goes down, in Georgia state prison.
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ZianChoy avatar
Zian Choy is predicting YES at 36% 4 months ago
@BTE I wonder what's driving all the "No" activity. Maybe people think the indictment won't be delivered before the end of this year.
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BTE avatar
BTE is predicting YES at 21% 4 months ago
@ZianChoy I don't get it. Seems so clear that he deserves to be charged. Perhaps you are right, but I didn't say anything about it having to be by the end of the year. That is just when I cut off betting and I see that as a fluid end point. I might change it.
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LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
@BTE in my case it is pure pessimism
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BTE avatar
BTE bought M$25 of YES3 months ago
@LivInTheLookingGlass I understand that. I share your pessimism generally.
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