Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?
87%
chance

Resolves YES if Trump is charged with a felony by the grand jury.

Aug 3, 5:41pm: Will Trump be charged by the grand jury in Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia? → Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?

Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm

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ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor
is predicting YES at 79%
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 73%

“We want to make sure that everyone is treated fairly, and we think for future defendants to be treated fairly it’s not appropriate at this time to have this report released,” Wilis said.

andrew avatar
Andrew Conner
bought Ṁ30 of YES

@BTE "future defendants" sounds fairly certain, right?

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 73%

@andrew Sure does. Her regular grand jury meets once a week on Tuesday I believe so probably today!!!

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 67%

The special grand jury report is with the judge and will likely be released on the 24th. Sounds like they are setting up a conspiracy charge. https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/01/09/fani-willis-fulton-county-georgia-trump-investigation/

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 70%
BTE avatar
BTE
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@MattP @Gigacasting I really do appreciate you guys making it so much easier to dig myself out of my Elon induced hole here.

MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 64%

@BTE my sentiments exactly! ;)

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 49%

@MattP This prosecutor Fani Willis is elected. Which means she faces consequences for inaction. This is the Cook County of the south. Charges are near certain. Doesn’t mean convicted, but charged.

MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@BTE "Charges are near certain. Doesn’t mean convicted, but charged."

I'd advise reexamining this statement. DAs do not like to bring cases they aren't nearly certain they will win. Bringing a case against a former president who is running for a second term and who would almost certainly be able to use an indictment to boost his political chances?

All I'll say is: if you come at the king, you best not miss.

I think the prosecutor is likely smarter than that. She won't bring a case unless she's certain she can get a conviction - and while I think there's a case there, it's not more than 50/50.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 56%

@MattP I have not read a single legal analysis that says this is 50/50. Not one. Every respectable, non-partisan lawyer I have read says this case is a slam dunk against Trump. Plus, the jury is almost guaranteed to be heavily stacked against Trump. I think it is merely a question of whether you just charge Trump, or you charge it as RICO. Willis is a RICO expert and has taken down several Atlanta street gangs that way. I seriously doubt she is more scared of Trump than Atlanta street gangs. You are wishing and hoping history still matters when it comes to Trump. Good luck with that.

MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ45 of NO

@BTE this isn't a matter of my wishes, it's a matter of what I predict will happen.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ5 of NO

The “nukular secrets” story seems more plausible than the “asked guy to recount votes without all the fraud this time” story; leaning more likely federal than some midwit atl lady

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 51%

@Gigacasting again you are forgetting this is Fulton County. It might as well be Cook County in terms of how they feel about Trump. Not charging him will be received as well as the Cook County DA dropping the original charges against Jussie Smollett for pretending to get beat up by someone that matches your description actually while walking home from subway at 3am on the Gold Coast. In other words, not well. The people in Fulton County don't give a shit about Trump or how important he used to be. I guess you can just stick to the Teflon Don idea because it has held so far, but don't forget what happened to the original Teflon Don - he died in the supermax.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
bought Ṁ50 of NO

The fact that I moved this market 4% with a pretty small potatoes bet makes me think its peculiarly high percentage is due to somebody whaling on yes. Unless the DA for Fulton County is the culprit, I think that confidence is unwarranted.

MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 56%

@AndrewHartman the way Manifold's AMM is designed, it requires a large amount of liquidity to get significant "inertia". Practically speaking, the vast majority of "inertia" in markets is provided by limit orders (the same way real-world securities markets work). There's a big limit floor at 56% for this market, and a smaller though not insignificant limit ceiling at 70%. Thus, it might be more accurate to think of the "market probability" as ~56%-70%, rather than a single number.

MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 56%

@AndrewHartman I do wish Manifold would add a display tab for seeing who holds what shares, though. That info is already extractable from the "bets" tab, this would just be a more user-friendly way of seeing it. That way we'd be able to see if the "YES" here is almost entirely due to (for example) BTE single-handedly betting YES against everyone who bets NO, or if the betting community is actually somewhat split on it.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting NO at 56%

@MattP I was aware of the limit orders being a thing that existed, but didn't bother to check for them here because who the hell would pick 56% specifically? I'm hard pressed to imagine a scenario in which this question has such a clearly calculable value and it's right there. I guess maybe as a tactical choice for a question you think is a little more likely than not it works? Still seems like you're going to be leaving a lot of money on the table though.

MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ50 of NO

@AndrewHartman might as well ask who would pick $113.43 per price of Google vs $113.44? That's how we end up with a market consensus, people are forced by other limit orders outbidding them to decide how high/low they're willing to go. Or it's all bots trading with each other.

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting NO at 56%

@MattP Eh, I think there is a nontrivial difference - the underlying value of stock is mostly calculable, in theory (value of assets held plus the weighted expectation of dividends, etc.). There's not really any underlying value to shares in a prediction market, beyond the EV that arises from your assessment of its probable resolution (i.e. you don't own anything for owning the shares). Yes, obviously market consensus is the whole point of the procedure - but prediction is inherently harder than accounting.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 56%

@AndrewHartman I have had so many limit orders execute on the wild swings in this market. I am the YES whale but honestly didn't get so big on purpose. It is harder to unwind than it is to build up.

MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 71%

@BTE is this a "by the end of 2022" market or are you planning to extend the close date if no indictment occurs before the end of the year?

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 70%

@MattP No, this markets extends until there is a definitive outcome. The Fulton County DA is required to make a decision one way or the other after the grand jury expires later this year. Would you prefer I extend it out to the end of the DA’s current term?

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 70%

@MattP That would be the end of 2024. I think that makes sense if nobody has any objections.

franlouco avatar
test
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ25 of YES
Updated: Charging a candidate looks terrible. They either need to do it quickly or not do it (the resolution criteria are bizarre but ultimately this will need to close by the election to not be obviously a fake market with only one possible answer) This should be higher: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a This market should be lower: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-gigacastings-most-recent-hunte Also the DA doesn’t look very competent. And the whole thing is and always was political grandstanding that will come back to the haunt the left: https://youtu.be/KqR44wxx4h8
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 69%
Further: January 6 will be long forgotten like that silly “Putin” thing and the “Ukraine whatever” psyops. CNN will sell ads with it but it all looks clownish a few years later—there was a phone call they spent $25 million investigating? Related: “….said they think Trump should be charged with a crime, including 9 in 10 Democrats but only 10% of Republicans. …. Six in 10 respondents said they don't think Trump will face any charges.” This is the very definition of a one-sided political prosecution that will demolish the Democrats if they pursue it. Probably more amusing if they do, and Trump wins a landslide mandate once the mail in vote fraud fades away this time. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/21/1112546450/a-majority-thinks-trump-is-to-blame-for-jan-6-but-wont-face-charges-poll-finds
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 61%
@Gigacasting Your analysis lacks one critical component - common sense. As far as I can tell you (and the people questioned in those polls you cite) aren't even addressing whether or not you think Trump committed a crime, only pointing out that it becomes a political prosecution when he is a candidate for office, which is right out of the Hillary Clinton Vast Right Wing Conspiracy playbook, but also totally irrelevant. If it mattered at all everyone charged with or even investigated for a crime would simply declare as a candidate for something. The January 6 committee did operate as a one sided political prosecution, that is what Congress does and it is largely because McCarthy was criminally negligent in not participating so if anything it was a self-inflicted persecution, but that is totally irrelevant to this market. This market is about a criminal prosecution based actions taken well before January 6 which were captured on tape. The facts are not in dispute by anyone, the only out available is to call it a "witch hunt" or whatever and that, my friend, is the argument of an incompetent and/or guilty person. It would be easier to buy the fishing expedition excuse if it were an investigation into Trump's business or taxes or some bullshit like that where he was probably smart enough to insulate himself from any questionable activity. But the evidence against him is so overwhelming even his defenders, yourself included, don't even bother to address the facts in the case because they are indefensible, so you fall back on what amounts to an argument that Trump is above the law so long as he is politically active. Very strange how so many of you thought Hillary Clinton should have been charged for a crime weeks before the election in 2016. I don't know enough about Fani Willis to judge her competence, but I can say she is absolutely fearless so I doubt any intimidation or fear of reprisal is going to influence her. https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/atlanta-da-reveals-more-high-profile-rico-cases-are-coming-in-the-next-60-days-report-news.155077.html
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ24 of YES
Hillary should be in jail for how her voice sounds; anyone who thinks this is a serious indictment for an actual crime has lost the plot — along with anyone who doesn’t think this will help him electorally
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 72%
@Gigacasting I don’t think whether or not it helps him electorally is relevant to the decision to charge him. However, some of the crimes he could be charged with carry the penalty of being prohibited from ever holding elected office if convicted. It’s a zero sum game, if you shoot and miss he emerges stronger, but if you hit he is dead politically. I do think his prosecution could open the door for one of his children to fill the void, presenting the perfect opportunity for him to pass the torch and maintain total loyalty among his base and therefore actual power by proxy.
Charlie avatar
Charlie
is predicting NO at 61%
@Gigacasting “along with anyone who doesn’t think this will help him electorally” I wonder what a market testing this claim would look like.
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
it is not clear when it will resolve as no if charges will not be filed
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 75%
@M Resolves NO when the prosecutor announces the outcome of the grand jury and Trump is not charged with a crime. The market will remain open until there is a formal announcement of charges filed or not filed against Trump.
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requested
is predicting NO at 65%
@BTE Are they obligated to make formal announcement of charges not filed against Trump, if they decide to not do this?
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 65%
@M They sure aren't! And they also aren't obligated to announce charges, as Julian Assange can tell you. (I am not a lawyer, if you think you may have committed treason, please consult a lawyer, not a prediction market)
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 65%
@M the decision is actually with the DA not the grand jury, which can only make recommendations. This question is about whether real charges are filed.
MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 65%
@BTE are you resolving based on grand jury recommendation or DA decision?
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 65%
@MattP grand jury proceedings are confidential so we may never know what the recommendation is so I am going on the DA decision.
MattP avatar
Matt P
is predicting NO at 65%
@BTE gotcha, so it's more like "will Trump be charged by the DA in Georgia"?
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 65%
@MattP yes and now I can actually update it!
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 65%
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/19/false-georgia-electors-da-probe-00046593 I think they are going to bring RICO charges against the entire conspiracy led by Trump. That is the prosecutors specialty and by making the fake electors criminal targets it shows she is thinking about this case as a massive conspiracy.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ35 of NO
60% chance he’s a Presidential candidate + 70% chance he’s indicted = at least a 30% chance he’s under indictment and the nominee 🤔
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 63%
@Gigacasting There have been candidates to run their entire campaign from jail and do fairly well, for socialists. Several of the things he could be charged with come with a lifetime ban from holding public office. This case aside, if convicted of taking boxes of classified documents taken to Florida have only one penalty and it is lifetime ban from holding federal office. The only reason Hillary Clinton didn't get charged, remember, is because she was smart enough to destroy the evidence completely with fire.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 63%
@Gigacasting Also, who cares if he is a candidate?? Or even if he becomes president? Have you forgotten about Tom DeLay, Rod Blagojevich, George Ryan, Jesse Jackson, Jr? My first job out of college was in Speaker Denny Hastert's office in DC and look at how far he fell. Politicians in this country can go to jail, it happens A LOT.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 63%
Lfg https://twitter.com/ajc/status/1544371408955998212
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 63%
@Gigacasting I was just about to share the AJC article. The prosecutor is tough as nails, she just indicted a very violent street gang with RICO charges, she is going to charge Trump.
RationalOttawa avatar
How does this resolve if he is indicted by the grand jury in 2023, after market close?
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 63%
@RationalOttawa It would resolve YES. I purposely did not specify a timeframe for when the indictment is filed. I could potentially extend the close date, but I don't have strong feelings one way or the other. Open to reasons to extend.
RationalOttawa avatar
@BTE ok, wasn't sure whether the close date was an implied time limit or not. I don't know how long this kind of process takes but 12+ months wouldn't surprise me at all.
MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ250 of NO

@BTE IMO you should either extend the close date to some arbitrarily long time (eg 2025) or treat it as a time limit. Leaving it to the end of the year but extending it at the last minute might confuse people.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 48%

@MattP I think you are right. I am gonna do that now.

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 48%

@MattP It's actually not updating on mobile. Hmm.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 57%
The first rule of forecasting is “it’s all base rates.” You might even be smart enough to guess the second rule.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ40 of NO
Lol dudes will literally think the front-runner to win the election is going to be indicted for “whining about the election” instead of going to therapy (And that indicting Trump wouldn’t energize his base and sweep the House, Senate, and Presidency for the GOP)
BTE avatar
BTE
bought Ṁ25 of YES
@Gigacasting I don't care that he is whining now, in fact I kind of enjoy watching him flail in public every chance he gets. I only cared up to the point a crime was clearly committed, which was all while he was still president. I can't believe anyone would want someone so incredibly pathetic to be their president. I guess being loyal to a guy who literally has never been loyal to anyone in his entire life makes sense, if you fucking hate yourself. Personally, I prefer to have serious people who are actually interested in doing the job as my president. Also be nice if they capped them under the age of 60. Anyway, willfully ignoring reality is not a defense. He can say there was fraud all he wants, but if it isn't proven to be true, well then it is itself fraud. Bill Barr is going to make for a very credible prosecution witness. I get that you really don't want to acknowledge these basic facts, and that kinda makes sense I guess since that is your guy's only move. "You don't get to be simultaneously oppressor and victim." - Jordan Peterson
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 57%
LOL at thinking the president has any power in today’s government, or that “saying there is fraud and being wrong” is a crime “Oh no you libeled the political machine that’s a felony!” -Stalin, probably
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 55%
@Gigacasting not necessary to have any power, though it was clear that Trump definitely thought the president had power at the time. The things you say make it very clear you, like your hero, have no interest whatsoever in the actual facts. In this case the crimes are on tape. The evidentiary record is strong, and Georgia criminal law explicitly bars solicitation and conspiracy to commit election fraud, as well as providing avenues for prosecutors to pursue RICO charges which may well apply to Trump. Not to mention Fulton County is also among the least MAGA counties in the South, so charging him at least locally will be very popular.
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ50 of NO
hedge
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ40 of NO
Lock him up!
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ30 of NO
@Gigacasting partial arbitrage because the jury could charge him in 2023, but that doesn't justify this much of a gap.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 44%
@MartinRandall If I could bet this to 100 percent I would. I can't wait to take all of @gigacasting mana. There is only one reason Trump might avoid charges and that is because he has shown he will definitely use mob violence to avoid negative consequences. However, Merrick Garland is 10x the man Trump is and will absolutely not cower. I have been watching stuff on Nixon and he was clearly a psychopath who wanted to destroy his enemies at all costs, but when he lost he was gracious (despite having better case than Trump to challenge) and when he won he won BIG and despite his dishonorable resignation he went out a winner. Trump is the biggest loser, literally and figuratively, in modern history. I can't wait to see him in a Fulton County jail sans secret service soon.
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
is predicting NO at 57%
@BTE you should definitely bet this to 99% so I can get better odds.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 44%
Steve Bannon's utter meltdown on his podcast threatening to impeach the entire Justice Dept of Trump is charged is the best evidence yet that they know they are screwed.
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Anything less than 99% is reasonable doubt. For the sake of our “democracy” aka actually a constitutional republic slash behemoth entrenched administrative state, bid this higher!
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 44%
Clearly Trump will be indicted, convicted, and then publicly beheaded. Anyone who questions any aspect of the election process, like the fake “pipe leak” and last-minute shifts in the absentee ballot totals in only a few key swing states should likewise join him on the guillotine. Our democracy will cease to exist if anyone anywhere comments on election processes!
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 44%
Further, anyone betting NO on this market should likewise be tried and convicted as Trump’s accomplice in insurrection against democracy. Team Trump Derangement Syndrome Strong!
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 41%
@Gigacasting You aren't biased at all, clearly. I guess it is deranged to think the president shouldn't, idk, break the law. FYI, it is election fraud to claim there was election fraud when you have been told there was no election fraud by law enforcement (i.e. the Attorney General of the United States). You: "But the pipe leak conspiracy!!!" Me: LMFAO!!!!
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 48%
I agree 100%; anyone who even hints at the possibility of election fraud should be summarily shot. Suspend habeas corpus and send the troops door to door, confiscating guns and shooting everyone who refuses to pledge allegiance to the Biden regime.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 44%
@Gigacasting you're obviously not the least bit insecure about this.
ZianChoy avatar
Couple of priors from https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/list?series_filter=Federal%20Justice%20Statistics - 35.3% of public order cases get dropped - If it were a federal grand jury, there's a ~7.6% chance a case gets dropped at this point regardless of the nature of the offense Couldn't find any relevant statistics from https://cjcc.georgia.gov/about-sac/statistical-data-resources.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 65%
@ZianChoy Thanks for sharing the stats! I feel like you don’t convene a grand jury like this unless you really think he committed a crime. I mean we have all heard the tapes, the lawyer from the secretary of state’s office warned Trump he was compromising himself and Trump literally threatened him in response. It was so clearly a crime, the exact crime he constantly claims to be a victim of nonetheless. I really hope this is how he goes down, in Georgia state prison.
ZianChoy avatar
Zian Choy
is predicting YES at 36%
@BTE I wonder what's driving all the "No" activity. Maybe people think the indictment won't be delivered before the end of this year.
BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 21%
@ZianChoy I don't get it. Seems so clear that he deserves to be charged. Perhaps you are right, but I didn't say anything about it having to be by the end of the year. That is just when I cut off betting and I see that as a fluid end point. I might change it.
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
@BTE in my case it is pure pessimism
BTE avatar
BTE
bought Ṁ25 of YES
@LivInTheLookingGlass I understand that. I share your pessimism generally.