Closes yes if Donald Trump is arrested by midnight 03/21/2023.
Clarification for the Karens: Taken into custody by 11:59:59 PM on 03/21/2023.
Just to be clear: You do mean by midnight 03/21/2023, and not 03/22/2023, right? As in, within the next few hours? That is what the title and description both indicate, but it is a strange decision to make a market about it, since the actual prediction was that he would be arrested on Tuesday, not before Tuesday. And given that the market probability is way higher than it should be, I am guessing some people have misunderstood the criteria.
@JosephNoonan I think "By Tuesday" is more often than not understood to mean by end of day Tuesday, but it is ambiguous. From context, I think in this case it is clear that it is meant the midnight at end of day Tuesday. Context clues include the reference to Trump's prediction and the close date.
@jack That's why I asked. The reference to the prediction and the close date suggest that it is meant to include Tuesday, but the description specifically says that it must happen by midnight on 3/21, which is the beginning of Tuesday, not the end of Tuesday.
@JosephNoonan I don't think that's clear either, Midnight Tuesday is also ambiguous and could refer to either midnight before or after.
@jack I don't really think it's ambiguous where midnight, Tuesday falls, though. Midnight on Day X means 12:00 AM on Day X, which is the beginning of the day, not the end. It's possible the market creator meant the end of Tuesday, but if that's the case, they should have specified more clearly, rather than use the word "midnight" in a non-standard way.
@JosephNoonan It is ambiguous. That’s why we’re having this conversation.
I'm just here for the arbitrage. 14% to 17% is all I could afford, when the other market is at 21% and should be strictly lower (ON Tues vs BY Tues). Anyone want to take the other 4%?
Why do some of you think "yes"?
@MingNg i dont have any extra information, Just these articles:
1. Potential Trump Indictment Spurs Security Measures in Manhattan: Report (businessinsider.com)
2. Trump expects to be arrested Tuesday in Manhattan probe (usatoday.com)
what made you pick no
I just have a feeling that he is nut.
This is his post on TruthSocial. Sounds nut to me.
Also, from the USA Today article: ""No one tells us anything, which is very frustrating," Tacopina [Trump's attorney] said in an email to USA Today. "President Trump is basing his response on press reports, and the fact that this is a political prosecution and the DA leaks things to the press instead of communicating to the lawyers as they should."