WeatherIsNiceUpHere
closes Mar 22
Will Donald Trump’s prediction of his arrest “by Tuesday” (03/21/2023) occur?
14%
chance

Closes yes if Donald Trump is arrested by midnight 03/21/2023.

Clarification for the Karens: Taken into custody by 11:59:59 PM on 03/21/2023.

Sort by:
Joseph Noonanbought Ṁ10 of NO

Just to be clear: You do mean by midnight 03/21/2023, and not 03/22/2023, right? As in, within the next few hours? That is what the title and description both indicate, but it is a strange decision to make a market about it, since the actual prediction was that he would be arrested on Tuesday, not before Tuesday. And given that the market probability is way higher than it should be, I am guessing some people have misunderstood the criteria.

Jackis predicting YES at 24%

@JosephNoonan I think "By Tuesday" is more often than not understood to mean by end of day Tuesday, but it is ambiguous. From context, I think in this case it is clear that it is meant the midnight at end of day Tuesday. Context clues include the reference to Trump's prediction and the close date.

Joseph Noonanis predicting NO at 27%

@jack That's why I asked. The reference to the prediction and the close date suggest that it is meant to include Tuesday, but the description specifically says that it must happen by midnight on 3/21, which is the beginning of Tuesday, not the end of Tuesday.

Jackis predicting YES at 27%

@JosephNoonan I don't think that's clear either, Midnight Tuesday is also ambiguous and could refer to either midnight before or after.

Joseph Noonanis predicting NO at 31%

@jack I don't really think it's ambiguous where midnight, Tuesday falls, though. Midnight on Day X means 12:00 AM on Day X, which is the beginning of the day, not the end. It's possible the market creator meant the end of Tuesday, but if that's the case, they should have specified more clearly, rather than use the word "midnight" in a non-standard way.

Nico Dsold Ṁ6 of YES

@JosephNoonan It is ambiguous. That’s why we’re having this conversation.

robmbought Ṁ35 of YES

I'm just here for the arbitrage. 14% to 17% is all I could afford, when the other market is at 21% and should be strictly lower (ON Tues vs BY Tues). Anyone want to take the other 4%?

Also, Trump predicted his arrest ON Tuesday, not BY Tuesday

@WeatherIsNiceUpHere What definition of "arrest" are you using? Same as mine?

What definition of arrest does this market use?

Mingbought Ṁ50 of NO

Why do some of you think "yes"?

Mingis predicting NO at 33%

@higherLEVELING

I just have a feeling that he is nut.

This is his post on TruthSocial. Sounds nut to me.

Also, from the USA Today article: ""No one tells us anything, which is very frustrating," Tacopina [Trump's attorney] said in an email to USA Today. "President Trump is basing his response on press reports, and the fact that this is a political prosecution and the DA leaks things to the press instead of communicating to the lawyers as they should."