Will SBF take a plea deal?
49%
chance

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ChrisGillett avatar
Chris Gillett
bought Ṁ25 of YES

This is such a tough one because so many of the key factors cut both ways.

He's facing a lot of time, which cuts both ways. Going to trial and losing could be extremely costly. But also, it's hard to imagining him agreeing to do >15yrs.

He has generally good PR, which should make it easier to get a good deal. But that good PR comes in large part because of his political donations / etc, and prosecutors will want to avoid the perception that his giving made them go easy on him.

I think it's likely he doesn't take a deal. He's a gambler, and he's unlikely to get a good deal. But my gut is that on this decision he'll turn out to be careful and rational. Idk. I bought YES.

ChrisGillett avatar
Chris Gillett
is predicting YES at 55%

@ChrisGillett Sorry I meant I bought NO

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ60 of NO
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 69%
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
bought Ṁ40 of NO
Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting
is predicting NO at 37%