Will the crew and passengers of the Titanic explorer be found safely by the end of the week?

222

3.3K

Ṁ170K

Ṁ2K

resolved Jun 23

Resolved

ALL

A submarine containing tourists exploring the wreck of the Titanic has gone missing and there is currently a search underway:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/19/titanic-tourist-submarine-missing-north-atlantic

Will the submarine be located with everyone on board alive (or will everyone who was on board be found alive) by the end of the week?

Resolution criterea:

"The end of the week" means the end of Sunday UK time. So the closing time of this market.
For this to count as "found safely" and resolve to YES, they need to be located with some chance of rescue. So locating the submarine without knowing whether anyone on board is alive or even locating it with the knowledge that the passengers are alive without anyone being able to get to them before their air runs out would resolve to NO.

Let me know if you would like any other elements of the resolution criterea to be clarified.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ364
2		Ṁ176
3		Ṁ161
4		Ṁ117
5		Ṁ86

25 Comments

186 Holders

513 Trades

Sort by:

predicted NO

@SimonGrayson Resolves NO. Here's a source: https://www.reuters.com/world/search-intensifies-titanic-sub-with-only-hours-oxygen-left-2023-06-22/

Titanic sub destroyed in ‘catastrophic implosion,’ all five aboard dead

A deep-sea submersible carrying five people on a voyage to the century-old wreck of the Titanic was found in pieces from a “catastrophic implosion” that killed everyone aboard, the U.S. Coast Guard said on Thursday, ending a multinational five-day search for the vessel.

predicted NO

They’re all dead

predicted NO

@tbone_steak any bodies?

predicted NO

@higherLEVELING There might be remains of some kind, but the sort of failure that occurred would not leave individual bodies. Think an order of magnitude more pressure than a hydraulic press.

sold Ṁ0 of YES

predicted NO

Welp, catch you boyos on the next market.

bought Ṁ10,000 of NO

https://www.cnn.com/americas/live-news/titanic-missing-sub-oceangate-06-22-23/index.html

Missing Titanic sub crew believed to be dead, tour company says | CNN

Tour company OceanGate Expeditions said it believes the five passengers on board the missing Titanic-bound submersible have died. Follow here for live updates.

predicted NO

Honestly. Imo.... the submersible imploded 1:45 min into the decent. There is no credible evidence from the coast guard saying the sounds are man made.

Here is why I belive this:

The window is graded for 1300m of pressure, not 4000.
The submersible is made of fiberglass (hard to bang on without impeding the integrity of the material. Ie with a wrench or hands could damage the hull)
Once fiberglass fails it shatters, not crumbles.
The contact was lost 1:45 into decent (takes 2:30 to reach titanic)
The submersible is designed to release the ballasts even in the case that the crew passes out.

Chances are they died very quickly and didn't even know it happened (which is a much kinder end than suffocating to death for 5 days)

Hope I'm wrong, but these are the facts of the matter. There is likely no submersible to find at this point.

predicted NO

https://twitter.com/USCGNortheast/status/1671907901542211584?t=Rp2_t8Onb-XKuMXG2V6bfg&s=19

predicted NO

Looks like my analysis might be correct.

Sad, but I'd prefer dying this way than suffocating for 5 days.

bought Ṁ2 of YES

What if the submarine comes back up and everything is fine except there's an extra guy in there for some reason?

predicted YES

@Mirek That would resolve to YES… Though it seems like a scenario where there’s “an extra guy in there for some reason” is mutually exclusive with everything else being fine…

predicted YES

@SimonGrayson Great, thank you.