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Polymarket is currently at 60% odds. Premature resolution?
@AaronKreider As we have seen in the past, Polymarket takes time to adjust to Manifold's correct valuations.
@ForrestTaylor Really? I'd think real money markets would be more accurate and faster. I've seen how Metaculus is slow to move. And I've seen several Manifold markets left open at 98 cents that were clearly at 100.
@AaronKreider This assumes there isn't a large whale or two that distorts the real money market.
@ForrestTaylor Not at all the case. YES was proposed on Polymarket earlier today but was disputed by someone arguing that the market should resolve NO based on the wording of the rules. Now it'll take another day to get through the dispute process.
@AaronKreider Metaculus = slow to move bc its usersbase is nerds instead of degenerate gambling addicts
Polymarket = slower than manifold as their userbase is constantly worrying about whether their fake money is worth three cents or three million dollars.
Manifold is superior to both, as I know that my mana will be worth the exact same amount tomorrow as yesterday.
There is the small problem with Manifold of the 98 cents problem, but you can expect this to fade away as my portfolio becomes larger
> their userbase is constantly worrying about whether their fake money is worth three cents or three million dollars.
@nmehndir Ethereum, USD "stable"coin, etc. Not a real money market
For new NO bettors- what's the thinking? The reports are wrong, or Gigacasting won't count an indictment vote as an indictment?
@ForrestTaylor the other market won't resolve on a sealed indictment, this one doesn't specify. I guess people are trying to play on the vagueness. For all intents and purposes the indictment has been made, but won't be confirmed legally yet
@dgga what's the other market?
@dgga Yeah as the guy with most of the NO shares at the moment the question just seemed a bit ambiguous. I guess since it’s hard to prove a negative a sealed indictment or some as-yet-unreported vote that actually he would be indicted would always have been a possibility come the deadline. Obviously that seems fairly certain now rather than merely possible, but then it’s not clear where you would draw the line if not at ‘officially announced’. Having said that, it’s just a bet I made in expectation and everything. I think resolving YES because of the current news would be totally reasonable.
@1941159478 Yeah by all intents and purposes no one in media at the moment is questioning the indictment, even hardcore Trumpers have moved past that to smearing the jury etc. Since this market doesn't specify that the indictment has to be unsealed, it's pretty clear now. The other market I'm investing in NO
@dgga Sure, but I don’t think that implies everyone agrees Trump is, as of today, indicted. Most people aside from this market just don’t particularly care whether the date of Trump’s indictment was some unknown number of days ago when a vote reportedly happened, today when it was widely reported, or some days in the future when it’ll seemingly be officially announced. It’s just a really niche definitional matter we have ourselves at. Great day not to be @Gigacasting having to resolve this one! Also maybe relevant: @BTE resolved his version as YES: /BTE/will-trump-be-indicted-in-new-york
@Gigacasting SIR, YOUR OBAMNA'S UP IN THE AIR.
Not in a court, not with a plea,
Not in a case, not even for free.
They will not indict him for a bribe,
Not for obstruction, they won't subscribe.
They will not indict him for his tweets,
Or for the lies liberal media repeats.
They will not indict him for his past,
Not for his taxes or his business amassed.
They will not indict him, it's plain to see,
For anything, much less halt his presidency.
So let's not worry, let's not frown,
Trump won't be indicted, not in this town.
He'll go on living, free as a bird,
And that, my friends, is the final word.
They will not indict him in Georgia
They will not indict him on whore’s bluff
They will Not indict him on Thursday
They will Not indicted him any day
Indicted or not, Trump's fate
Is a question that remains up to date
But if he is, it won't be too late
For justice to finally seal his fate.
@Gigacasting Best comment in manifold history to date!!
Folks, please do not do the Tik-Tok dances, that would be market manipulation.
@MichaelWheatley Oh man, it only held the top spot for 45 seconds!!
"Former President Donald Trump will not refuse to surrender if the Manhattan district attorney criminally indicts him, his lawyer told the Daily News Friday."
@AlQuinn if trump fakes suicide that is a valid NO close, it should not be NA whatsoever happens
@Gigacasting he will never be indicted, put all your money in and I will wipe you out
@MarkIngraham Ok, I will take your bet. What's an agreeable price to bet at?
@jack everything, there is no indictment, especially be a special jury. I have everything in that question
@MarkIngraham Yes I will take your bet too
@BTE put everything into the question I gave. I'll become a millionaire and take over the site and get banned
@BTE I already have $250K bet on trump getting indicted. So a lot more than you I imagine. I think you should buy more mana to bet more against me.
@BTE I'm IRL broke
@MarkIngraham OK he was indicted but in the wrong state so I win
@MarkIngraham Why are you so sure? I think all of the Trump stuff is a TDS witch hunt, but the fact it's objectively insane doesn't stop it from happening.
@AlQuinn if the arrest is March 21 it takes a week for a federal jury to meet, two days to indict, it's almost mathematically impossible before March 31 and that's if they don't find additional charges
@MarkIngraham also he will just fake suicide like epstein
@MarkIngraham What are you talking about? You better get out of your NO bets.