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@AaronKreider As we have seen in the past, Polymarket takes time to adjust to Manifold's correct valuations.
@ForrestTaylor Really? I'd think real money markets would be more accurate and faster. I've seen how Metaculus is slow to move. And I've seen several Manifold markets left open at 98 cents that were clearly at 100.
@ForrestTaylor Not at all the case. YES was proposed on Polymarket earlier today but was disputed by someone arguing that the market should resolve NO based on the wording of the rules. Now it'll take another day to get through the dispute process.
@AaronKreider Metaculus = slow to move bc its usersbase is nerds instead of degenerate gambling addicts
Polymarket = slower than manifold as their userbase is constantly worrying about whether their fake money is worth three cents or three million dollars.
Manifold is superior to both, as I know that my mana will be worth the exact same amount tomorrow as yesterday.
There is the small problem with Manifold of the 98 cents problem, but you can expect this to fade away as my portfolio becomes larger
@ForrestTaylor
> their userbase is constantly worrying about whether their fake money is worth three cents or three million dollars.
what?
@ForrestTaylor the other market won't resolve on a sealed indictment, this one doesn't specify. I guess people are trying to play on the vagueness. For all intents and purposes the indictment has been made, but won't be confirmed legally yet
@dgga Yeah as the guy with most of the NO shares at the moment the question just seemed a bit ambiguous. I guess since it’s hard to prove a negative a sealed indictment or some as-yet-unreported vote that actually he would be indicted would always have been a possibility come the deadline. Obviously that seems fairly certain now rather than merely possible, but then it’s not clear where you would draw the line if not at ‘officially announced’. Having said that, it’s just a bet I made in expectation and everything. I think resolving YES because of the current news would be totally reasonable.
@1941159478 Yeah by all intents and purposes no one in media at the moment is questioning the indictment, even hardcore Trumpers have moved past that to smearing the jury etc. Since this market doesn't specify that the indictment has to be unsealed, it's pretty clear now. The other market I'm investing in NO
@dgga Sure, but I don’t think that implies everyone agrees Trump is, as of today, indicted. Most people aside from this market just don’t particularly care whether the date of Trump’s indictment was some unknown number of days ago when a vote reportedly happened, today when it was widely reported, or some days in the future when it’ll seemingly be officially announced. It’s just a really niche definitional matter we have ourselves at. Great day not to be @Gigacasting having to resolve this one! Also maybe relevant: @BTE resolved his version as YES: /BTE/will-trump-be-indicted-in-new-york
Not in a court, not with a plea,
Not in a case, not even for free.
They will not indict him for a bribe,
Not for obstruction, they won't subscribe.
They will not indict him for his tweets,
Or for the lies liberal media repeats.
They will not indict him for his past,
Not for his taxes or his business amassed.
They will not indict him, it's plain to see,
For anything, much less halt his presidency.
So let's not worry, let's not frown,
Trump won't be indicted, not in this town.
He'll go on living, free as a bird,
And that, my friends, is the final word.