Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?
resolved Mar 30

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Polymarket is currently at 60% odds. Premature resolution?

predicted YES

@AaronKreider As we have seen in the past, Polymarket takes time to adjust to Manifold's correct valuations.

@ForrestTaylor Really? I'd think real money markets would be more accurate and faster. I've seen how Metaculus is slow to move. And I've seen several Manifold markets left open at 98 cents that were clearly at 100.

@AaronKreider This assumes there isn't a large whale or two that distorts the real money market.

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor Not at all the case. YES was proposed on Polymarket earlier today but was disputed by someone arguing that the market should resolve NO based on the wording of the rules. Now it'll take another day to get through the dispute process.

predicted YES

@AaronKreider Metaculus = slow to move bc its usersbase is nerds instead of degenerate gambling addicts

Polymarket = slower than manifold as their userbase is constantly worrying about whether their fake money is worth three cents or three million dollars.

Manifold is superior to both, as I know that my mana will be worth the exact same amount tomorrow as yesterday.

There is the small problem with Manifold of the 98 cents problem, but you can expect this to fade away as my portfolio becomes larger

predicted NO

> their userbase is constantly worrying about whether their fake money is worth three cents or three million dollars.

predicted YES

@nmehndir Ethereum, USD "stable"coin, etc. Not a real money market

sold Ṁ112 of NO

For new NO bettors- what's the thinking? The reports are wrong, or Gigacasting won't count an indictment vote as an indictment?

predicted YES

@ForrestTaylor the other market won't resolve on a sealed indictment, this one doesn't specify. I guess people are trying to play on the vagueness. For all intents and purposes the indictment has been made, but won't be confirmed legally yet

predicted YES

@dgga what's the other market?

bought Ṁ0 of NO
sold Ṁ1,444 of YES

@dgga Yeah as the guy with most of the NO shares at the moment the question just seemed a bit ambiguous. I guess since it’s hard to prove a negative a sealed indictment or some as-yet-unreported vote that actually he would be indicted would always have been a possibility come the deadline. Obviously that seems fairly certain now rather than merely possible, but then it’s not clear where you would draw the line if not at ‘officially announced’. Having said that, it’s just a bet I made in expectation and everything. I think resolving YES because of the current news would be totally reasonable.

predicted YES

@1941159478 Yeah by all intents and purposes no one in media at the moment is questioning the indictment, even hardcore Trumpers have moved past that to smearing the jury etc. Since this market doesn't specify that the indictment has to be unsealed, it's pretty clear now. The other market I'm investing in NO

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@dgga Sure, but I don’t think that implies everyone agrees Trump is, as of today, indicted. Most people aside from this market just don’t particularly care whether the date of Trump’s indictment was some unknown number of days ago when a vote reportedly happened, today when it was widely reported, or some days in the future when it’ll seemingly be officially announced. It’s just a really niche definitional matter we have ourselves at. Great day not to be @Gigacasting having to resolve this one! Also maybe relevant: @BTE resolved his version as YES: /BTE/will-trump-be-indicted-in-new-york

sold Ṁ2 of NO

the absolute scale of trading once the news broke

predicted NO
bought Ṁ413 of YES


predicted NO

Not in a court, not with a plea,

Not in a case, not even for free.

They will not indict him for a bribe,

Not for obstruction, they won't subscribe.

They will not indict him for his tweets,

Or for the lies liberal media repeats.

They will not indict him for his past,

Not for his taxes or his business amassed.

They will not indict him, it's plain to see,

For anything, much less halt his presidency.

So let's not worry, let's not frown,

Trump won't be indicted, not in this town.

He'll go on living, free as a bird,

And that, my friends, is the final word.

predicted NO

They will not indict him in Georgia

They will not indict him on whore’s bluff

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Unlikely tomorrow at this point, but probably next week.

predicted NO

They will Not indict him on Thursday

They will Not indicted him any day

@AlexBeal lol, it's 🤡 all the way down with this witch hunt