1a3orn's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.77
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when 1a3orn bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?NOṀ50
- Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of September 2023?NOṀ45
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ40
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%