Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?
Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?
860
2kṀ470k
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
YES

Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts.

Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of March 31st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).

Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Resolution based on my best judgment.

Dec 14, 5:46pm: Will GPT4 be released before March 31th, 2023? → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?

Feb 4, 12:50pm: Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023? → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?

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2y

I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.

2y

Time to resolve!

predictedNO 2y
predictedNO 2y

This investment of mine is clearly going great!

predictedYES 2y

@GamerBathGamerGutten You and me both lol

predictedYES 2y

@GamerBathGamerGutten first time?

predictedYES 2y

@GamerBathGamerGutten

2y

Polite of the Manifold admins to buy in at 99.7% to give everyone else liquidity to exit early.

2y

TFW your AI will suggest sterilization but not cigarettes

2y

Imagine your only competitive advantage being a little more spend than the llama farm

Plus broken ethics that make your model wrong

2y

ITT they admit wokifying the model makes it less calibrated

predictedYES 2y

ah, sorry for reposting, didnt see it posted already

2y

https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

2y

@ZiquaftyNny o7

predictedYES 2y

https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

2y

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1635684890812485633 👀

2y

@rockenots Sam is "excited 4 today"

2y

@rockenots Pi day was the Schelling point. We should've known.

predictedYES 2y
predictedNO 2y

So I would like a determination here. How would this market resolve if:

GPT4 is "unveiled" before March 31st but there is no public alpha, but a microsoft employee tweets "I was using it yesterday and it was really good" before march 31st.

predictedYES 2y

@NathanpmYoung Something more concrete:

https://manifold.markets/rocketsan/will-openai-publish-a-blog-post-tha

predictedNO 2y

Look these fools

predictedNO 2y

@Gigacasting Look history and gpt2 fool

predictedNO 2y

Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society

(And now you can get a million words for $2, or run a superior model to GPT-3.5 on your MacBook 🤔)

predictedNO 2y

@Gigacasting I fully expect them to pull that one out of the bag every third or fourth release just to remind everyone they are building silicon gods everyone should be simultaneously terrified of and longing for. LMFAO.

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