Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?

860

1.1K

Ṁ470K

Ṁ2K

resolved Mar 14

Resolved

YES

ALL

Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts.

Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of March 31st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).

Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Resolution based on my best judgment.

Dec 14, 5:46pm: ~~Will GPT4 be released before March 31th, 2023?~~ → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?

Feb 4, 12:50pm: ~~Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?~~ → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?

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I just tried out GPT-4 via ChatGPT Plus.

bought Ṁ11,692 of YES

Time to resolve!

predicted NO

This investment of mine is clearly going great!

predicted YES

@GamerBathGamerGutten You and me both lol

predicted YES

@GamerBathGamerGutten first time?

predicted YES

@GamerBathGamerGutten

sold Ṁ17,187 of YES

Polite of the Manifold admins to buy in at 99.7% to give everyone else liquidity to exit early.

TFW your AI will suggest sterilization but not cigarettes

Imagine your only competitive advantage being a little more spend than the llama farm

Plus broken ethics that make your model wrong

sold Ṁ20 of NO

ITT they admit wokifying the model makes it less calibrated

predicted YES

ah, sorry for reposting, didnt see it posted already

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

bought Ṁ643 of YES

@ZiquaftyNny o7

predicted YES

https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1635684890812485633 👀

bought Ṁ19 of YES

@rockenots Sam is "excited 4 today"

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@rockenots Pi day was the Schelling point. We should've known.

predicted YES

predicted NO

So I would like a determination here. How would this market resolve if:

GPT4 is "unveiled" before March 31st but there is no public alpha, but a microsoft employee tweets "I was using it yesterday and it was really good" before march 31st.

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung Something more concrete:

https://manifold.markets/rocketsan/will-openai-publish-a-blog-post-tha

predicted NO

Look these fools

predicted NO

@Gigacasting Look history and gpt2 fool

predicted NO

Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society

(And now you can get a million words for $2, or run a superior model to GPT-3.5 on your MacBook 🤔)

predicted NO

@Gigacasting I fully expect them to pull that one out of the bag every third or fourth release just to remind everyone they are building silicon gods everyone should be simultaneously terrified of and longing for. LMFAO.