Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?
35%
chance

Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts.

Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of March 31th (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).

Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Resolution based on my best judgment.

Dec 14, 5:46pm: Will GPT4 be released before March 31th, 2023? → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?

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JimHays avatar
Jim Hays
is predicting NO at 35%

Can’t be released before March “31th” unless we have dramatic changes to English soon 😉

CollinFerry avatar

Confused because I already have a friend who does not work for OpenAI who has access to GPT4. So does that count as 'early access'?

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simon
is predicting NO at 32%

@CollinFerry Is your friend in some official alpha, or does he have access because he knows someone-who-knows-someone? Regardless, for this market to resolve Yes there's need to be some kind of actual evidence.

CollinFerry avatar

@jonsimon I think it's closer to the "know-someone" side of the spectrum, but my point is the market description should (I think) clarify what is meant by 'early access' because it's currently ambiguous (to me anyway)

elibutchad avatar

@CollinFerry updated, thanks!

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 37%

@CollinFerry And yet you have nothing in the market...

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 35%

Imagine the salt if it was released on March 31st.

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 69%

VivaLaPanda putting their money where their mouth is 😅

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 74%

Does VivaLaPanda know something? 🤔

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
is predicting YES at 60%
ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 70%

@VivaLaPanda What do you know? 😅

VivaLaPanda avatar
VivaLaPanda
bought Ṁ200 of YES

@ZiquaftyNny GPT-4 will come out before March 31st

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 70%

@VivaLaPanda How do you "know" this?

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
sold Ṁ78 of YES

Bet no and if it comes out early then I am still happy.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
is predicting NO at 64%

@ZiquaftyNny ah exactly what i did. I call it "an arbitrage opportunity for excitement and happiness".

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 64%

@firstuserhere Side benefit is that markets like this trend to zero until the market closes or some news about release.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
is predicting NO at 67%
elibutchad avatar
Eli but Chad
is predicting YES at 76%

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