Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts.
Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of March 31st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).
Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Resolution based on my best judgment.
Dec 14, 5:46pm: Will GPT4 be released before March 31th, 2023? → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?
Feb 4, 12:50pm: Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023? → Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?
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Polite of the Manifold admins to buy in at 99.7% to give everyone else liquidity to exit early.
Imagine your only competitive advantage being a little more spend than the llama farm
Plus broken ethics that make your model wrong
So I would like a determination here. How would this market resolve if:
GPT4 is "unveiled" before March 31st but there is no public alpha, but a microsoft employee tweets "I was using it yesterday and it was really good" before march 31st.
@NathanpmYoung Something more concrete:
https://manifold.markets/rocketsan/will-openai-publish-a-blog-post-tha
Remember when they refused to release GPT-2 because they said it was harmful and risked destroying the fabric of society
(And now you can get a million words for $2, or run a superior model to GPT-3.5 on your MacBook 🤔)
@Gigacasting I fully expect them to pull that one out of the bag every third or fourth release just to remind everyone they are building silicon gods everyone should be simultaneously terrified of and longing for. LMFAO.
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