this

https://natesilver.substack.com/p/journalists-should-be-skeptical-of

I'll read it later and then research more

Here’s the scandal. In March 2020, a group of scientists ... published a paper in Nature Medicine that seemingly contradicted their true beliefs about COVID’s origins and which they knew to be misleading. The paper, “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2”, has been cited more than 5,900 times and was enormously influential in shaping the debate about the origins of COVID-19.

In the Slack and email messages, the authors worked to manipulate the media narrative about COVID-19’s origins and to ensure that their private uncertainty wasn’t conveyed in conversations with reporters. They also thought they were going to get away with it. “The truth is never going to come out ”, wrote Rambaut in one message

Specifically, this resolves YES if I think it's more than 50% likely and NO if less than 50% likely by usual bayes stuff

I would have guessed such a thing wouldn't have happened a year ago! But there seems to be a lot of evidence, which I will look into.