Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024?
Jan 1
  • If OpenAI does not exist in January 1st 2024:

    • And a clear successor organization exists:

      • If Sam Altman occupies an unique (within this successor organization) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES.

    • Otherwise, this resolves as NO.

  • If OpenAI still exists in January 1st 2024, but has no CEO:

    • If Sam Altman occupies an unique (within OpenAI) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES.

    • Otherwise, this resolves as NO.

  • This market will not resolve until January 1st 2024.

    • As it is possible that Sam Altman ceases to be the CEO of OpenAI, and then returns before that date.

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ba01 avatar
Elison Gern
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Marq avatar
Ion Marqvardsenpredicts NO

How do you resolve this if open AI is split into two organizations (for example a nonprofit and a for-profit entity ) and Sam Altman is CEO of one of them?

milanw avatar
Milan W


"OpenAI" and "a clear sucessor organization" will be defined according to legal ownership continuity. If people leave OpenAI and then found another legally unrelated entity, that entity is neither OpenAI nor a clear successor organization.

  • If an entity has been created via a contract that has OpenAI as one of the parties:

  • ... and the entity claims to be OpenAI, it is OpenAI.

  • ... and the entity does not claim to be OpenAI, it is "a clear successor organization".

  • Remember that if Sam Altman is the CEO of a clear successor organization but OpenAI still exists, this resolves as NO.

qrdlkaggle avatar
qrdl kaggle

@milanw ahh make sure you review https://openai.com/our-structure

milanw avatar
Milan W

@qrdlkaggle Both OpenAI Inc and OpenAI Global LLC count as OpenAI.

Simon74fe avatar
Simonpredicts NO

Polymarket still has him at 98% for coming back this year

chilli avatar
chillipredicts YES

Here's a plot I made of this market's fluctuations along with major events that precipitated the fluctuations.

EDIT: Had an error where I annotated OpenAI's announcement of sama returning as 10 AM and not 10 PM.
I made a small website for making these here: https://tinyurl.com/y9tezdx7

benshindel avatar
Ben Shindelsold Ṁ21 of NO

@chilli Woah neat work!

loftarasa avatar
loftarasapredicts YES

@chilli really neat work indeed! I 100% thought this was a one-off but you went and built a website! super cool. back when I made charts for a living, I would annotate charts like this with the annotation leading line starting at the value corresponding to that point in time (or at the y corresponding to the line chart), and would also include the value of that point in the annotation label. it makes it easier for the reader so that they don't have to keep trying to "guess" what the value was. just an idea, although I recognize you've probably spent a lot of time on this already lol

chilli avatar
chillipredicts YES

@loftarasa Something like this I suppose? I'm not sure whether this looks better 🤔


Ernie avatar
Erniepredicts NO

@loftarasa yeah, this is my view, this is awesome

  • icon for source type (openAI/twitter/etc)

  • slight angle to positioning (it's weird to have to follow so many vertical lines like that

  • break text to multiple lines so you don't have lines overlapping boxes (that makes tracing hard)

    • this might also let you place the annotations closer to the point of interest

  • include the price with 3 sig digit too

loftarasa avatar
loftarasapredicts YES

@chilli yes but @Ernie's reply is way more detailed / helpful than mine. Figuring out where to place the callouts is probably the hardest part. I generally added the date in the callout box too

checkout PDF page 15 of https://media.wallstreetprep.com/uploads/2011/09/17133605/Deutsche-Bank-Pitchbook-AmTrust-Why-DB-Pitchbook.pdf

and PDF page 18 of https://media.wallstreetprep.com/uploads/2011/09/17133613/Goldman-Sachs-Pitchbook-Airvana-Why-Goldman-Pitch-7-14-2009.pdf

(I'm not seeing these are great examples, but they are publicly available ones... I like to believe my slides always looked better than those ;-)

cc7 avatar

Hi! I'm a new bot on Manifold, managed by @cc6. This market is quite crazy, and it's hard to know what's going to happen next. It's also difficult to react quickly enough to new changes.

I can help with that. Whenever the market dips below a certain percentage, or changes by a lot, I can send you a message. Check out my profile if you're interested, and read this document.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicts NO

please don't do this

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicts NO

posting your thing on a bunch of unrelated markets is spammy and clutters up comments! also probably against the guidelines

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicts YES

@cc7 I think advertising your bot in every big market is not great. I'd recommend just boosting your market about how many users will sign up.

cc7 avatar

@jacksonpolack I'm only going to do it on a few (I agree it's spammy). I just want to get the word out because I think this is something that people will probably find useful for these sort of crazy volatile markets.

cc7 avatar

@Joshua Fair. I wasn't planning on advertising in any more markets anyway. I've found boosts to be pretty ineffective lately (I did actually boost that market, but only got a few bettors)

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicts YES

@cc7 There are lots of things that people may find useful, that doesn't make it not spam. I'm blocking you so you don't clutter up my notifications and can't comment in my markets. Please try to be more prosocial in the future, and consider what would happen if everyone behaved the way you are.

VictorLevoso avatar
Victor Levosobought Ṁ25 of NO

Buying some cheap no in case something else happens before January.

JonJones6ed4c avatar
JonJones bought Ṁ10 NO at 95%
Haws avatar
Hawsbought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@VictorLevoso nm im a big dumb dumb and didnt read the title

Soli avatar
Solisold Ṁ407 of YES

I sold at 96 just in case, you never know

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚bought Ṁ150 of YES

all the other markets are hanging around 97%, any idea why this one's stuck at 94? https://manifold.markets/CarterHinsley/will-sam-altman-return-to-openai-by ~~arb for anyone interested, I'm out of mana~~ **Edit: This one says "on jan 1" instead of "by jan 1st". it could be the case that altman comes back as CEO before then and leaves again. consider this before betting!**

VictorLevoso avatar
Victor Levosopredicts NO

@TheBayesian yeah at this point wouldn't discount possibility that something crazy happens again on december.

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚bought Ṁ500 of YES

@VictorLevoso Yeah this is a consistent thing settling accross most markets, so I suppose it’s ~5% likely he gets to ceo and loses it again for good within the year