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Resolve? Give people their mana back for end of year?

@MarcusAbramovitch Not 2024 yet!

@Lorenzo im surprised everyone agrees with this but ok

@MarcusAbramovitch I'm surprised you're surprised. IMHO it's good to respect resolution dates, so people can use the appropriate discount rates

@Lorenzo more important than discount rates, to me, is the chance that the early resolution ends up inaccurate. Maybe we can say it's very unlikely in certain cases (e.g., scientific consensus pivots in a single day), but in theory we want markets to work even for very unlikely events.

@Jacy we can re-resolve

@Lorenzo I'm not a fan of relying on the ability to re-resolve. When you re-resolve, people get mana yanked out of their accounts. They might already have reinvested their "winnings", so they could get left with a negative balance. Not the worst thing in the world, but best to avoid if possible.

@Fion I agree, but the chance of me misclicking or manifold glitching, and so needing to re-resolve, is already much higher than the chance of this market correctly resolving YES (something like .5% vs .03%?)

@Lorenzo how about now?

@MarcusAbramovitch Eh, close enough. Happy almost 2024! 🥳

the problem is that even if lk99 were actually real, it would be basically useless since it's ceramic. This whole story is a huge nothingburger

@VoyagerRock clay pots flying through the sky delivering mcdonalds orders

@VoyagerRock it would still work as a thin film coating on surfaces such as flexible fibres. However, flexibility is not required in motors, generators and MRIs. Josephson junctions in SQUIDs for low-noise sensors that are orders of magnitude more sensitive than what we have today.

https://twitter.com/altryne/status/1686801275604877312 We have successfully observed zero resistance below 110K in #LK99 material...

If the superconductivity only exists along one axis and if there is consequently no strong Meissner effect [1], which maybe means there'd be some dispute over whether or not it's a "real" superconductor, does the market still resolve to YES?

[1] e.g., suggested here: https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1686514863777120257

@tmk Depends on the state of dispute on Dec 31st. If at that time there is no consensus as to whether or not LK99 is a superconductor this resolves N/A.

See the description: "Resolves N/A if there's no consensus on Dec 31st"

More and more papers are going to pile up.

Looks like we are actually going to get RTAPSC, but with weird caveats eg directional conductivity.

Material lattice is complex and weird, needs more considered production methods eg in presence of magnetic fields and radio frequencies to maximise properties.

But all that is slowly emerging already.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00676

Electronic structure of the putative room-temperature superconductor Pb$_9$Cu(PO$_4$)$_6$O

A recent paper [Lee {\em et al.}, J. Korean Cryt. Growth Cryst. Techn. {\bf 33}, 61 (2023)] provides some experimental indications that Pb$_{10-x}$Cu$_x$(PO$_4$)$_6$O with $x\approx 1$, coined LK-99, might be a room-temperature superconductor at ambient pressure. Our density-functional theory calcul…

Am I reading right, if this specific paper gets retracted for reasons unrelated to replicability, the market will resolve No even if the results are replicated later?

relevant: https://nitter.1d4.us/8teAPi/status/1685294623449874432

@yep If it both gets retracted and replicates multiple independent times, then I'd argue the spirit of the question is "yes" and the letter of the question is both "yes" and "no", which might add up to N/A, but who knows.

@yep Oh no, I didn't think of that, I've edited the description. @StevenK is correct

Gotta believe in your communist catgirls.

This lost 25% between 6 AM and 12 PM on 8/1. Why?

@JoshSnider Lots of discussion in the official market https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Mostly failed replications like https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16802

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

33% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-07-27: Pasting my comment on resultion criteria We’re clearly all here because a) it’s fun, and b) we’re interested in room temperature s…

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16892

"A recent report of room temperature superconductivity at ambient pressure in Cu-substituted apatite (`LK99') has invigorated interest in the understanding of what materials and mechanisms can allow for high-temperature superconductivity. Here I perform density functional theory calculations on Cu-substituted lead phosphate apatite, identifying correlated isolated flat bands at the Fermi level, a common signature of high transition temperatures in already established families of superconductors. I elucidate the origins of these isolated bands as arising from a structural distortion induced by the Cu ions and a chiral charge density wave from the Pb lone pairs. These results suggest that a minimal two-band model can encompass much of the low-energy physics in this system. Finally, I discuss the implications of my results on possible superconductivity in Cu-doped apatite"

Origin of correlated isolated flat bands in copper-substituted lead phosphate apatite

A recent report of room temperature superconductivity at ambient pressure in Cu-substituted apatite (`LK99′) has invigorated interest in the understanding of what materials and mechanisms can allow for high-temperature superconductivity. Here I perform density functional theory calculations on Cu-su…

@JacobPfau Just Say No!