Will we have "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" before 2024?
closes Dec 31

The paper "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12008.pdf claims to have discovered a very simple room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Resolves YES if by the end of the year there are multiple independent replications of the claims in the paper, or in general there's consensus that the results are legit.

If a variation of the methodology used in this paper gives us "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor", this resolves YES.

Resolves N/A if there's no consensus on Dec 31st, resolves NO if on Dec 31st most of the relevant experts state that the results don't hold up. (i.e. there is no known room temperature superconductor)

If a completely independent method gives a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor this resolves N/A.

I will not bet in this market after setting it to 10%

Get Ṁ500 play money

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VoyagerRock avatar
Voyager Rock

the problem is that even if lk99 were actually real, it would be basically useless since it's ceramic. This whole story is a huge nothingburger

2 replies
cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jacksonpredicts YES

@VoyagerRock clay pots flying through the sky delivering mcdonalds orders

MichaelGarba avatar

@VoyagerRock it would still work as a thin film coating on surfaces such as flexible fibres. However, flexibility is not required in motors, generators and MRIs. Josephson junctions in SQUIDs for low-noise sensors that are orders of magnitude more sensitive than what we have today.

JfP avatar
Jf Ppredicts YES

https://twitter.com/altryne/status/1686801275604877312 We have successfully observed zero resistance below 110K in #LK99 material...

tmk avatar
Thomas Kehrenberg

If the superconductivity only exists along one axis and if there is consequently no strong Meissner effect [1], which maybe means there'd be some dispute over whether or not it's a "real" superconductor, does the market still resolve to YES?

[1] e.g., suggested here: https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1686514863777120257

1 reply
Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzopredicts NO

@tmk Depends on the state of dispute on Dec 31st. If at that time there is no consensus as to whether or not LK99 is a superconductor this resolves N/A.

See the description: "Resolves N/A if there's no consensus on Dec 31st"

StuartEllison avatar
Stuart Ellisonbought Ṁ100 of YES

More and more papers are going to pile up.

Looks like we are actually going to get RTAPSC, but with weird caveats eg directional conductivity.

Material lattice is complex and weird, needs more considered production methods eg in presence of magnetic fields and radio frequencies to maximise properties.

But all that is slowly emerging already.


yep avatar

Am I reading right, if this specific paper gets retracted for reasons unrelated to replicability, the market will resolve No even if the results are replicated later?

relevant: https://nitter.1d4.us/8teAPi/status/1685294623449874432

2 replies
StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ500 of NO

@yep If it both gets retracted and replicates multiple independent times, then I'd argue the spirit of the question is "yes" and the letter of the question is both "yes" and "no", which might add up to N/A, but who knows.

Lorenzo avatar
Lorenzopredicts NO

@yep Oh no, I didn't think of that, I've edited the description. @StevenK is correct

CabiaRangris avatar
Cabia Rangrispredicts YES

Gotta believe in your communist catgirls.

JacobPfau avatar
Jacob Pfau


"A recent report of room temperature superconductivity at ambient pressure in Cu-substituted apatite (`LK99') has invigorated interest in the understanding of what materials and mechanisms can allow for high-temperature superconductivity. Here I perform density functional theory calculations on Cu-substituted lead phosphate apatite, identifying correlated isolated flat bands at the Fermi level, a common signature of high transition temperatures in already established families of superconductors. I elucidate the origins of these isolated bands as arising from a structural distortion induced by the Cu ions and a chiral charge density wave from the Pb lone pairs. These results suggest that a minimal two-band model can encompass much of the low-energy physics in this system. Finally, I discuss the implications of my results on possible superconductivity in Cu-doped apatite"

1 reply
MaybeNotDepends avatar
MaybeNotDependspredicts NO

@JacobPfau Just Say No!

903124 avatar
903124predicts NO


According to The Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, no Meissner effect observed (yet) but magnetic susceptibility is measured to be the same same as in the paper

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ100 of NO

damn there's a lot of foolish money in this one

1 reply
DavidBolin avatar
David Bolin

@L Better hope your name is not an example of nominative determinism.

nebraska_research avatar
Nebraska Researchbought Ṁ50 of NO


7 replies
jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicts NO

@nebraska_research what's the significance?

QuantumObserver avatar
Quantum Observerpredicts YES

@jonsimon It looks like “Fool” but is just likely a dumb coincidence with standard notation for these things.

JerryMew avatar
Jerry Mewbought Ṁ10 of NO

@nebraska_research Can you explain more in details? Don't quite get it

QuantumObserver avatar
Quantum Observerpredicts YES

@JerryMew The term in parens is a term that is generically represented as (hkl) where h, k, and l are integer indices. I believe the last index, l, corresponds to the z-plane of the unit cell. So if you sum along only the z axis and don’t care about x or y planes, you get (00l).

JerryMew avatar
Jerry Mewpredicts NO

@QuantumObserver Sorry but I still didn't get it. Isn't this formula just trying to calculate the Fourier transform of F which the authors claim to be eventually the electron density? What is the specifical problem with this paragraph?

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonpredicts NO

@JerryMew People think the expression F(00l) looks like the English word "fool" which made them think it was an Easter egg left by the authors to say "haha this was all a joke, we fooled you / you are all fools"

But really it's just a benign albeit weird looking standard formalism.

JerryMew avatar
Jerry Mewpredicts NO

@jonsimon Oh okay lmao