The paper "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.12008.pdf claims to have discovered a very simple room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor. Resolves YES if by the end of the year there are multiple independent replications of the claims in the paper, or in general there's consensus that the results are legit.

If a variation of the methodology used in this paper gives us "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor", this resolves YES.

Resolves N/A if there's no consensus on Dec 31st, resolves NO if on Dec 31st most of the relevant experts state that the results don't hold up. (i.e. there is no known room temperature superconductor)

If a completely independent method gives a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor this resolves N/A.

I will not bet in this market after setting it to 10%