Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of September 2023?
188
closes Oct 2
0.9%
chance

Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

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LaurenzHemmen avatar
Laurenz Hemmenbought Ṁ150 of YES

These have pretty similar resolution criteria, and since August is over, "the next attempt" or "a attempt" is the same. What am I missing? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d

1 reply
Mqrius avatar
Mqriusbought Ṁ440 of YES

@LaurenzHemmen imo they're the same too. Don't worry, I fixed it :D Thanks for the heads up for free arbitrage!

tbh I've been arbitraging these markets a few times now, I guess people don't really search for arbitrage very often.

NGK avatar
Nick Kardisbought Ṁ50 of NO

I can’t read

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ10 of YES

👀 Notice to Mariners for rocket launching activities September 8th

2 replies
Domer avatar
Domerbought Ṁ222 of NO

Mariners, stand back and stand by.

DeeMan avatar
Dee Man

it has to happen