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72% chance. Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site. @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d (you are here) @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98 @/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa