Will Google's Gemini model be released in 2023?
closes Jan 1

Resolves if the model could reasonably described as being released in 2023. Feel free to posit grey area release scenarios and we can reach a consensus.

List of events qualify to resolve this market YES:
Released to the public
Open Beta
Paid but otherwire open service
Leaked weights that have been packaged to be usable by laymen
Renamed to something else (in name only) but released

Closed Beta with proof of >=10,000 users

List of events that do not qualify to resolve this market YES:
Leaked weights that are useless
Closed Beta with no proof of user numbers
Closed Beta with <10,000 users
Limited researcher only release

List of events that immediately resolve this market NO:
Project renamed and takes vastly different direction
Project cancelled
Not released by 2024
Model explicitly permanently not released due to risks


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LoganZoellner avatar
Logan Zoellner

delete double post

nikkey avatar
Comment hidden
EvanDaniel avatar
Evan Daniel

It seems to me that these two could happen in order:

List of events that immediately resolve this market NO:
Model explicitly permanently not released due to risks

Followed by:

Leaked weights that have been packaged to be usable by laymen

Does the market in fact resolve No and stay that way if that happens?

4 replies
brubsby avatar
brubsbybought Ṁ75 of YES

@EvanDaniel rules as written, yeah you'd be correct there. Looking back I'd probably have the "explicitly permanently not released due to risks" not be in the immediate NO category, but I wanted a way to resolve early if they killed the project, and don't think I should change it now.

EvanDaniel avatar
Evan Daniel

@brubsby Thanks! I'm supportive of not changing things unless there are major problems, just wanted to check that I was reading it correctly.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

Imo things like that are sufficiently minor that it's fine to change them

brubsby avatar
brubsbybought Ṁ10 of YES

@jacksonpolack fair, I'm kind of two minds about the specific criterion though. I think maybe it should resolve NO before getting leaked in that case, as the title wording "released" does imply a bit of an official vibe (as opposed to if it were to say "leaked"). although immediate NO resolution in such a case is a bit unusual, I'll admit.