Will "The Waluigi Effect" post on LessWrong receive >=800 karma by March 31st? | Manifold Markets

Konstantine Sadov

closes Mar 31

Will "The Waluigi Effect" post on LessWrong receive >=800 karma by March 31st?

1.9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves "Yes" if the https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluigi-effect-mega-postwal has >= 800 karma at 06:00 GMT on 3/31/23.

Sort by:

why does this article continuously refer to GPT-4, which hasn't been released yet

Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of YES

@BrendanFinan Written based on belief that Bing/Sidney is GPT-4.

A belief that turned out to be true, I might add.

Martin Randallis predicting YES at 2%

@rockenots yes, advance predictions should increase credibility.

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/is-bings-chatbot-gpt4

dmayhem93bought Ṁ50 of YES

easy bet

Jay bought Ṁ500 NO from 2% to 1.9%

Ming bought Ṁ10 YES from 2.0% to 2%

Tassilo Neubauer bought Ṁ100 NO from 2% to 2.0%

Tassilo Neubauer bought Ṁ400 NO at 2%

Jay bought Ṁ10 NO at 2%

Jay bought Ṁ10 NO at 2%

Michael bought Ṁ2 YES at 2%

Chase Gomes bought Ṁ10 NO at 2%

nrims sold Ṁ21 NO at 2%

Jay bought Ṁ100 NO at 2%

Duncn bought Ṁ10 YES from 2.0% to 2%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ24/Ṁ24 YES at 2.0%

dmayhem93 sold Ṁ104 YES from 7% to 1.2%

Jay bought Ṁ100 NO from 8% to 7%

rockenots sold Ṁ515 NO from 5% to 8%

42irrationalist sold Ṁ25 YES from 7% to 5%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ40 NO at 7%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ6 YES at 7%

rockenots bought Ṁ500 NO from 12% to 7%

Arun Jose bought Ṁ100 NO from 15% to 12%

Jay bought Ṁ100 NO from 17% to 15%

Barnaby Colvin bought Ṁ14 YES from 15% to 17%

42irrationalist bought Ṁ15 YES from 13% to 15%

42irrationalist bought Ṁ35 YES from 9% to 13%

Tоm sold Ṁ115 NO from 7% to 9%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ10 YES from 6% to 7%

Tjaden Hess sold Ṁ23 YES from 9% to 6%

ML sold Ṁ4 YES from 10% to 9%

ML sold Ṁ4 YES at 10%

Jay bought Ṁ50 NO from 11% to 10%

firstuserhere sold Ṁ2 YES at 11%

Charlie bought Ṁ20 NO from 12% to 11%

dmayhem93 bought Ṁ10 YES from 10% to 12%

dmayhem93 bought Ṁ55 YES at 10%

Andrew G sold Ṁ20 NO at 10%

Jay filled limit order Ṁ500/Ṁ500 NO at 10%

Jay filled limit order Ṁ85/Ṁ500 NO at 10% (cancelled)

Jay bought Ṁ50 NO from 12% to 11%

dmayhem93 bought Ṁ10 YES from 11% to 12%

Pierogi🥟 sold Ṁ3 YES at 11%

Andrew Hebb bought Ṁ10 YES from 10% to 11%

1a3orn sold Ṁ10 YES from 11% to 10%

1a3orn bought Ṁ10 YES from 10% to 11%

nrims bought Ṁ20 NO at 10%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ44/Ṁ44 NO at 10%

dmayhem93 bought Ṁ100 YES from 5% to 11%

Jay filled limit order Ṁ1,000/Ṁ1,000 NO at 5%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ27 YES at 8%

Jay filled limit order Ṁ1,373/Ṁ1,500 NO at 5% (cancelled)

Forrest Taylor sold Ṁ28 NO from 18% to 19%

Anish Upadhayay

Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 250k views or more within the same month?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 150k views or more within the same month?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 200k views or more within the same month?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 225k views or more within the same month?

Will any VaushPit (Vaush's 2nd channel) video posted in March reach 125k views or more within the same month?

Will Vaush's main channel reach 6.5 million views or more in March?

Will Vaush's main channel reach 6 million views or more in March?

Will Vaush's short "republicans should be barred from public office" reach 15k views by 3/24 9 A.M. PST?

Will Vaush's video "Vaush Describes The PERFECT Batman Story" reach 40k views by 3/22 9 A.M. PST?

Anish Upadhayay

Will "The Waluigi Effect (mega-post)" reach >=1k upvotes on LessWrong by the end of 2023?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 250k views or more within the same month?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 150k views or more within the same month?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 200k views or more within the same month?

Will any Vaush video posted in March reach 225k views or more within the same month?

Will any VaushPit (Vaush's 2nd channel) video posted in March reach 125k views or more within the same month?

Will Vaush's main channel reach 6.5 million views or more in March?

Will Vaush's main channel reach 6 million views or more in March?

Will Vaush's short "republicans should be barred from public office" reach 15k views by 3/24 9 A.M. PST?

Will Vaush's video "Vaush Describes The PERFECT Batman Story" reach 40k views by 3/22 9 A.M. PST?