Is Bing's chatbot GPT-4?
resolved Mar 14

Microsoft's blog says:

We’re excited to announce the new Bing is running on a new, next-generation OpenAI large language model that is more powerful than ChatGPT and customized specifically for search. It takes key learnings and advancements from ChatGPT and GPT-3.5 – and it is even faster, more accurate and more capable.

Bing itself claims to be running on GPT-4:

I use a ChatGPT interface that is powered by OpenAI's GPT-4.0 technology, which is a large language model that can generate natural and conversational text.

This market resolves once more information about it has been made public and we can know for sure. If it turns out to be some intermediate model, this market resolves based on whether it's "closer" to GPT-3 and its derivatives such as Codex and ChatGPT, or "closer" to a new GPT-4 system. Resolves based on what Bing was running on at the time of market creation.

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

This was very obvious if you did any evaluation at all of the relative capabilities of ChatGPT and Bing tbh, I have no idea why people thought OpenAI wouldn't do this with their biggest partner. Good market though :)

@hyperion For once, someone's claims of "this was super obvious" are actually backed up by their bets before the information was publicly known! Well done. :)

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Only reason I pulled out earlier was because another GPT-4 market was at 30% and I didn't have enough liquidity for both. Easy $$$$

predicted YES

@Mira your account is still deleted though 🥴

Any concerns before I resolve this to YES?

sold Ṁ7 of NO

@IsaacKing plz do it, need liquidity

sold Ṁ124 of NO

"We are happy to confirm that the new Bing is running on GPT-4, customized for search. If you’ve used the new Bing in preview at any time in the last six weeks, you’ve already had an early look at the power of OpenAI’s latest model."

The new Bing launched Feb 7, which is more than 6 full weeks prior to this statement, or 5 full weeks and two partial weeks. This implies that it not only is GPT-4 now, but has been since launch.

predicted NO

@JimHays bet this is straight up an attention grabbing lie, but you never know. feels weird that OpenAI clearly states that the free usage tier of GPT-4 will be more limited than GPT3 was. But then again, it's no longer a for-profit org, is it... 😢

@rkn Wanna actually bet on that?

predicted NO

@IsaacKing not really, I already did lol. In hindsight it's perfectly reasonable for Microsoft to pay (or already $10B) as Bing desperately needs market share vs Google ^^ Good thing OpenAI "... rolled out the ability to purchase ChatGPT Plus internationally." in yesterdays release notes for chatgpt, you know, since they're only letting Plus-users use GPT4 (free use not yet known) 😂

@rkn So you think this market should resolve NO, because Bing was not using GPT-4 at the time of release, and is now switching it over and lying about having always been using it?

I'm willing to seriously consider this possibility if you seriously believe it, but the fact that you have not bought a bunch of NO at such incredibly good odds for you makes me think you don't seriously hold this belief and are just trolling.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing while I think it's *possible*, I really don't think should resolve to no as long as MS states that Bing has been running gpt4 all along. Unless they walk it back somehow

not trolling got my shares earlier than this (~60-70% iirc) so imma realize this loss

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I think this is implausible because Bing was clearly more advanced than ChatGPT. There was little doubt if it uses some other better model, it was just not clear if it was GPT-4 or GPT-3.6 or something like this.

predicted YES

@ValeryCherepanov also, it is plausible that Bing used GPT-4 from the start because GPT-4 existed for months already (this is not rumors, it is what the official OpenAI post says).

@rkn Ok, I'm going to resolve this YES without further research unless you or someone else wants to provide a serious counterargument within the next few minutes.

predicted YES

From the GPT-4 blog: "We’ve been working on each aspect of the plan outlined in our post about defining the behavior of AIs, including steerability. Rather than the classic ChatGPT personality with a fixed verbosity, tone, and style, developers (and soon ChatGPT users) can now prescribe their AI’s style and task by describing those directions in the “system” message. System messages allow API users to significantly customize their users’ experience within bounds. " doesn't that remind you the precise / creative / balanced behavior of Bing?

predicted NO

@Butanium I've used the gpt3.5 API and these "system" messages, seeing as they just announced a waitlist for GPT-4... I don't think Bing has been running anything more than a "custom" 3.5 build

predicted NO

@rkn apparently microsoft says otherwise, guess we know why Bing's version was so shoddy (less tested/poor bing system prompts/???)

predicted NO

You really think BING got GPT-4 before ChatGPT?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@grahambo GPT-4 is rumored to have trillions of parameters, which means it's orders of magnitude more computationally expensive than ChatGPT or GPT-3 is. Which means there's no way they are scaling that for people to use it for FREE

predicted NO

@grahambo The trillion parameters ba has been debunked by Sam Altaman himself. The GPT-4 models won’t be much bigger than the GPT-3.5 ones

predicted NO

@R2D2 *trilion parameters bs.

predicted NO

@R2D2 Damn that's confusing. Still though, people seem to think Bing will be getting GPT-4 before OpenAI does lmao

predicted NO

@grahambo I don’t know about that. Since Microsoft paid very good money, they might demand to be the first to release it. We don’t know the details of their commercial agreement. Anyway, that doesn’t matter for what it concerns this market. “Resolves based on what Bing was running on at the time of market creation” and there’s no way GPT-4 was out already when this market was created.

predicted YES

@R2D2 Bing could have been running on a prerelease of GPT-4. Scott Alexander thinks this is the case and thinks they just fumbled it because they were less technically competent than OpenAI expected them to be. But he's not an AI expert.

predicted YES

@grahambo OAI already has access to GPT-4 and plan to publicly release it soon. It is a smaller model as well