Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?
closes 2024

Inspired by "I am Bing, and I am evil". See also What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like.

A notable attack could include a bombing, an attack on someone who works there, a hack, etc. The attack does not need to be successful; a bomb that doesn't detonate would still count. However the planned attack must actually matter. Some graffiti on the wall of an AI lab is not going to resolve this YES, though more significant vandalism like cutting the internet cables could count.

A large, sustained, in-person protest would also count, even if nothing is violent.

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duck_master avatar
duck_masterbought Ṁ10 of NO(edited)


EDIT: wait nevermind

Fion avatar
Fionis predicting YES at 30%

@duck_master hmm, it's not obvious to be what the arbitrage is here. There's a big difference between a protest (which this market includes) and a terrorist attack (which seems to be what the other market requires) for example.

Boojum avatar
Boojumis predicting YES at 39%
JamesRomeril avatar
James Romerilsold Ṁ76 of NO

@Boojum good for context, but I'll note that there's no "leading AI organization" being targeted here.

TeddyWeverka avatar
Teddy Weverkabought Ṁ18 of YES
JacyAnthis avatar
Jacy Reese Anthis

@TeddyWeverka Seems like what matters is whether a week is "sustained" and whether how ever many people show up is "large," since it is clearly an in-person protest.

JacyAnthis avatar
Jacy Reese Anthis

@IsaacKing any clarification on what it would take for this sort of protest to count? Here's the summary, "📢 Hey everyone! Im organizing a week-long picket around OpenAI's HQ in San Francisco, mid May (So in 2 weeks!), to call for 6 month pause on AI development, to get public attention. Stay tuned for the updates here. Join me, spread the word! Together, we will succeed! #PauseAI"

IsaacKing avatar

@JacyAnthis Needs to get significant coverage and be actually disruptive to OpenAI.

JamesRomeril avatar
James Romerilbought Ṁ100 of NO

Companies are hacked all the time. Will this resolve to NO if there’s no evidence that a hack was motivated for anti-AI reasons?

PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Foweraker

@JamesRomeril I'd argue that would depend on the impact of the hack - data or model exfiltration NO, something like ransomware or DDOS YES

NicholasKross avatar
Nicholas Krossis predicting YES at 35%

@PipFoweraker IMHO the intent is still part of that. E.g. model exfiltration could be motivated by a competing company's greed, but data exfiltration could be "Look how much data this chatbot knows about you!". It's not clear if that's quite linked "enough" to AI itself, but it kinda points toward what that could look like.

MichaelChen avatar
Michael Chenbought Ṁ200 of NO

Who would even organize a protest?

IsaacKing avatar

@MichaelChen Someone who is concerned about AI, presumably...

JamieCrom avatar
jamiebought Ṁ255 of NO

what if someone splashes tomato soup on a painting owned by a tech billionaire and then thousands of weird nerds write articles about how it was unethical and counterproductive even though the protestor's message got out more than they could ever have hoped?

IsaacKing avatar

@JamieCrom Doesn't count unless it's closely related to AI in some way.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghis predicting YES at 44%

Would a protest or attack on an exclusively AI-art related company resolve YES? Midjourney for instance

IsaacKing avatar

@DylanSlagh Hmm. If they're doing capabilities research, I think that should count, yeah. If they just use other people's AIs to make and sell art, no.

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima

@IsaacKing Midjourney trains their models these days fyi, e.g. Midjourney v4 was trained with TPUs

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Taylor

How large is a large protest?

IsaacKing avatar

@ForrestTaylor Largeish.

cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jackson

"Italy temporarily bans ChatGPT over privacy concerns"

PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Foweraker

For clarity, the market would resolve 'yes' if any of the following took place:

  • DDOS or other equivalent externally generated impacts on commercially available, uptime-guaranteed AI APIs?

  • Physical trespass eventuating in police-assisted removal or arrest

  • Vandalism resulting in destruction of more than $1,000USD of property

  • Vandalism resulting in destruction more than $10,000USD of property

IsaacKing avatar

@PipFoweraker Needs to be serious enough to be disruptive and/or get publicity

connorwilliams97 avatar
Connor Williams

IDK, but there should be. Time to fight hard.

PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Fowerakerbought Ṁ20 of YES

@connorwilliams97 'will' and 'should' have very different meanings in these markets

connorwilliams97 avatar
Connor Williams

@connorwilliams97 To be clear, I'm endorsing protests and political action, not violence, which I condemn.

PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Fowerakeris predicting YES at 41%

@connorwilliams97 concur, and not meaning to imply otherwise - more noting that there is a much higher amount of commitment needed to take part in direct action than wanting it to occur, hence a lower likelihood of a YES resolve :-)

connorwilliams97 avatar
Connor Williams

@PipFoweraker Oh it's not about your comment at all. I just realized that when commenting on a market that includes bombings as one of several potential action types, I want to make it very clear that when I say "we should be [doing these things]", the violent ones are not the ones I am talking about.

Elspeth avatar

I suggest editing the description to include links.

Elspeth avatar
Elspethbought Ṁ30 of NO

@Elspeth Sorry, I did not notice the links.

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