Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 3

Inspired by "I am Bing, and I am evil". See also What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like.

A notable attack could include a bombing, an attack on someone who works there, a hack, etc. The attack does not need to be successful; a bomb that doesn't detonate would still count. However the planned attack must actually matter. Some graffiti on the wall of an AI lab is not going to resolve this YES, though more significant vandalism like cutting the internet cables could count.

A large, sustained, in-person protest would also count, even if nothing is violent. Must be at least 500 people over the course of at least a week, and actually cause disruption to them.

Any hack counts if it's seriously disruptive. A data breach alone is not good enough.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

What counts as “a hack”?

@mariopasquato Anything disruptive is good enough.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing What about a data breach or otherwise releasing information with the intent to hurt a company’s credibility? Like revealing a private chat or an internal memo

@mariopasquato Hmm, I don't think that counts if it wasn't unauthorized access.

Can we get a specific number on how large a protest would need to be to qualify here? "Large" is extremely subjective.

predicted NO

@DavidRein 500 people minimum, in-person.

bought Ṁ10 of NO


EDIT: wait nevermind

predicted YES

@duck_master hmm, it's not obvious to be what the arbitrage is here. There's a big difference between a protest (which this market includes) and a terrorist attack (which seems to be what the other market requires) for example.

predicted YES
sold Ṁ76 of NO

@Boojum good for context, but I'll note that there's no "leading AI organization" being targeted here.

bought Ṁ18 of YES

@TeddyWeverka Seems like what matters is whether a week is "sustained" and whether how ever many people show up is "large," since it is clearly an in-person protest.

@IsaacKing any clarification on what it would take for this sort of protest to count? Here's the summary, "📢 Hey everyone! Im organizing a week-long picket around OpenAI's HQ in San Francisco, mid May (So in 2 weeks!), to call for 6 month pause on AI development, to get public attention. Stay tuned for the updates here. Join me, spread the word! Together, we will succeed! #PauseAI"

@JacyAnthis Needs to get significant coverage and be actually disruptive to OpenAI.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Companies are hacked all the time. Will this resolve to NO if there’s no evidence that a hack was motivated for anti-AI reasons?

@JamesRomeril I'd argue that would depend on the impact of the hack - data or model exfiltration NO, something like ransomware or DDOS YES

predicted YES

@PipFoweraker IMHO the intent is still part of that. E.g. model exfiltration could be motivated by a competing company's greed, but data exfiltration could be "Look how much data this chatbot knows about you!". It's not clear if that's quite linked "enough" to AI itself, but it kinda points toward what that could look like.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

Who would even organize a protest?

@MichaelChen Someone who is concerned about AI, presumably...

bought Ṁ255 of NO

what if someone splashes tomato soup on a painting owned by a tech billionaire and then thousands of weird nerds write articles about how it was unethical and counterproductive even though the protestor's message got out more than they could ever have hoped?

@JamieCrom Doesn't count unless it's closely related to AI in some way.

predicted YES

Would a protest or attack on an exclusively AI-art related company resolve YES? Midjourney for instance

@DylanSlagh Hmm. If they're doing capabilities research, I think that should count, yeah. If they just use other people's AIs to make and sell art, no.

@IsaacKing Midjourney trains their models these days fyi, e.g. Midjourney v4 was trained with TPUs

More related questions