Inspired by "I am Bing, and I am evil". See also What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like.
A notable attack could include a bombing, an attack on someone who works there, a hack, etc. The attack does not need to be successful; a bomb that doesn't detonate would still count. However the planned attack must actually matter. Some graffiti on the wall of an AI lab is not going to resolve this YES, though more significant vandalism like cutting the internet cables could count.
A large, sustained, in-person protest would also count, even if nothing is violent.
@duck_master hmm, it's not obvious to be what the arbitrage is here. There's a big difference between a protest (which this market includes) and a terrorist attack (which seems to be what the other market requires) for example.
Writers guild protesting the use of chatgpt in a strike https://www.euronews.com/culture/2023/05/03/why-the-ai-demand-from-the-writers-guild-strikes-is-the-most-important-talking-point
@Boojum good for context, but I'll note that there's no "leading AI organization" being targeted here.
a picket of OpenAI
@TeddyWeverka Seems like what matters is whether a week is "sustained" and whether how ever many people show up is "large," since it is clearly an in-person protest.
@IsaacKing any clarification on what it would take for this sort of protest to count? Here's the summary, "📢 Hey everyone! Im organizing a week-long picket around OpenAI's HQ in San Francisco, mid May (So in 2 weeks!), to call for 6 month pause on AI development, to get public attention. Stay tuned for the updates here. Join me, spread the word! Together, we will succeed! #PauseAI"
Companies are hacked all the time. Will this resolve to NO if there’s no evidence that a hack was motivated for anti-AI reasons?
@JamesRomeril I'd argue that would depend on the impact of the hack - data or model exfiltration NO, something like ransomware or DDOS YES
@PipFoweraker IMHO the intent is still part of that. E.g. model exfiltration could be motivated by a competing company's greed, but data exfiltration could be "Look how much data this chatbot knows about you!". It's not clear if that's quite linked "enough" to AI itself, but it kinda points toward what that could look like.
what if someone splashes tomato soup on a painting owned by a tech billionaire and then thousands of weird nerds write articles about how it was unethical and counterproductive even though the protestor's message got out more than they could ever have hoped?
Would a protest or attack on an exclusively AI-art related company resolve YES? Midjourney for instance
@DylanSlagh Hmm. If they're doing capabilities research, I think that should count, yeah. If they just use other people's AIs to make and sell art, no.
@IsaacKing Midjourney trains their models these days fyi, e.g. Midjourney v4 was trained with TPUs
https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/systems/tpu-v4-enables-performance-energy-and-co2e-efficiency-gains
For clarity, the market would resolve 'yes' if any of the following took place:
DDOS or other equivalent externally generated impacts on commercially available, uptime-guaranteed AI APIs?
Physical trespass eventuating in police-assisted removal or arrest
Vandalism resulting in destruction of more than $1,000USD of property
Vandalism resulting in destruction more than $10,000USD of property
@connorwilliams97 'will' and 'should' have very different meanings in these markets
@connorwilliams97 To be clear, I'm endorsing protests and political action, not violence, which I condemn.
@connorwilliams97 concur, and not meaning to imply otherwise - more noting that there is a much higher amount of commitment needed to take part in direct action than wanting it to occur, hence a lower likelihood of a YES resolve :-)
@PipFoweraker Oh it's not about your comment at all. I just realized that when commenting on a market that includes bombings as one of several potential action types, I want to make it very clear that when I say "we should be [doing these things]", the violent ones are not the ones I am talking about.
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