It was a shame I didn't have more funds to buy when the chances shot up.

@Blomfilter kinda feel bad for the people who flew out start of September in hopes of catching it.

why do i always sell 1 day before i would have made huge gains

@8 1412 shares, damn 😆😂

new info?

@jacksonpolack This maybe https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/faa-could-advance-spacex-starship-license-soon-october-2023-09-13/

FAA could advance SpaceX Starship license as soon as October

The acting head of the Federal Aviation Administration said on Wednesday the agency could advance the SpaceX Starship launch license as early as next month.

Arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-bf4b09fd7078

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of September 2023?

61% chance. Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4)

On the one hand, this live broadcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhJRzQsLZGg and Musk's announcements.

On the other hand, the marine notice in Navarea IV https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings has not been updated.

So, has to be launched tomorrow at the latests, or another marine notice has to be issued. Marine notice experts, what's your take? What else is missing for a September launch?

Starbase Live: 24/7 Starship & Super Heavy Development From SpaceX's Boca Chica Facility

Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable launch system which is being developed at Starbase in Cameron County, Texas. Starbase LIVE provides 24/7 coverage of the ...

@RatUziCat Marine notices can go pretty fast. There's one for 12–18 September I believe but only for the region near Hawaii.

But for a launch mainly we need the FAA launch license, that's the biggest thing we're waiting for. The day before the launch there will also be an overpressure notice sent out.

Started 2y ago

This broadcast means nothing

@Shump Yeah those guys are always streaming, it's not SpaceX owned. There's also LabPadre streams that are always live.

@Shump what I meant with this stream is that we see Starship on the launchpad, not that the stream started recently. But anyway as you correctly guessed I'm not the expert here 😄

Not sure whether to trade on the basis that traders are not sufficiently factoring in delays (usually a good bet), or on the basis that traders are conflating formalities with practicalities - overestimating the extent to which actual major work needs to be done done before the FAA grants the launch license.

I would guess these two effects might be roughly cancelling each other out for now, so suppose the price might be about right.

@chrisjbillington

@Mqrius No launch license per the FAA website yet but that is reason enough for me to sell my shares of NO.

https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1700148188923969948

The chance of this getting completed in under 3 weeks seems basically 0.

I'm sure all the major concerns were already addressed btw. But just the bureaucracy of it is not that fast. Especially if they will also do a senate briefing before granting the license.

@WieDan Put your money where your mouth is.

edit, I think this was unnecessary and have apologised

@NathanpmYoung To be fair, they've been doing that

@WieDan props

@NathanpmYoung A) wtf is with the weirdo hostile internet though guy attitude mr Young, have I ever done anything to you?
B) Argue on merit, do you have anything meaningful to add, don't be pathetic?
C) The 'positions' tab is only one click away. No content and also lazy on top. Not a good look.

@WieDan Yeah I'm sorry. it was more hostile than a was going for. My bad

I guess I was going for sassy, but I got my figures wrong. As I say, my error.

@NathanpmYoung Water under the bridge.