Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-7c3df59ceab5
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d (you are here)
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
1,000
3.00@Blomfilter kinda feel bad for the people who flew out start of September in hopes of catching it.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/RJBQ5RPDGVKFLJ6QWN64CIYY5Q.jpg)
On the one hand, this live broadcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhJRzQsLZGg and Musk's announcements.
On the other hand, the marine notice in Navarea IV https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings has not been updated.
So, has to be launched tomorrow at the latests, or another marine notice has to be issued. Marine notice experts, what's your take? What else is missing for a September launch?
@RatUziCat Marine notices can go pretty fast. There's one for 12–18 September I believe but only for the region near Hawaii.
But for a launch mainly we need the FAA launch license, that's the biggest thing we're waiting for. The day before the launch there will also be an overpressure notice sent out.
@Shump Yeah those guys are always streaming, it's not SpaceX owned. There's also LabPadre streams that are always live.
@Shump what I meant with this stream is that we see Starship on the launchpad, not that the stream started recently. But anyway as you correctly guessed I'm not the expert here 😄
Not sure whether to trade on the basis that traders are not sufficiently factoring in delays (usually a good bet), or on the basis that traders are conflating formalities with practicalities - overestimating the extent to which actual major work needs to be done done before the FAA grants the launch license.
I would guess these two effects might be roughly cancelling each other out for now, so suppose the price might be about right.
@Mqrius No launch license per the FAA website yet but that is reason enough for me to sell my shares of NO.
@WieDan Put your money where your mouth is.
edit, I think this was unnecessary and have apologised
@NathanpmYoung A) wtf is with the weirdo hostile internet though guy attitude mr Young, have I ever done anything to you?
B) Argue on merit, do you have anything meaningful to add, don't be pathetic?
C) The 'positions' tab is only one click away. No content and also lazy on top. Not a good look.
@WieDan Yeah I'm sorry. it was more hostile than a was going for. My bad
I guess I was going for sassy, but I got my figures wrong. As I say, my error.