Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in September 2023?
resolved Oct 1

Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.





/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d (you are here)




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predicted NO

It was a shame I didn't have more funds to buy when the chances shot up.

predicted YES
predicted YES

@Blomfilter kinda feel bad for the people who flew out start of September in hopes of catching it.

why do i always sell 1 day before i would have made huge gains

@8 1412 shares, damn 😆😂

predicted NO

On the one hand, this live broadcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhJRzQsLZGg and Musk's announcements.

On the other hand, the marine notice in Navarea IV https://msi.nga.mil/NavWarnings has not been updated.

So, has to be launched tomorrow at the latests, or another marine notice has to be issued. Marine notice experts, what's your take? What else is missing for a September launch?

predicted YES

@RatUziCat Marine notices can go pretty fast. There's one for 12–18 September I believe but only for the region near Hawaii.

But for a launch mainly we need the FAA launch license, that's the biggest thing we're waiting for. The day before the launch there will also be an overpressure notice sent out.

bought Ṁ35 of NO

Started 2y ago

This broadcast means nothing

predicted YES

@Shump Yeah those guys are always streaming, it's not SpaceX owned. There's also LabPadre streams that are always live.

predicted NO

@Shump what I meant with this stream is that we see Starship on the launchpad, not that the stream started recently. But anyway as you correctly guessed I'm not the expert here 😄

predicted YES

Not sure whether to trade on the basis that traders are not sufficiently factoring in delays (usually a good bet), or on the basis that traders are conflating formalities with practicalities - overestimating the extent to which actual major work needs to be done done before the FAA grants the launch license.

I would guess these two effects might be roughly cancelling each other out for now, so suppose the price might be about right.

predicted YES
sold Ṁ224 of NO

@Mqrius No launch license per the FAA website yet but that is reason enough for me to sell my shares of NO.

predicted NO

The chance of this getting completed in under 3 weeks seems basically 0.

predicted NO

I'm sure all the major concerns were already addressed btw. But just the bureaucracy of it is not that fast. Especially if they will also do a senate briefing before granting the license.

predicted YES

@WieDan Put your money where your mouth is.

edit, I think this was unnecessary and have apologised

predicted YES

@NathanpmYoung To be fair, they've been doing that

predicted YES

@WieDan props

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung A) wtf is with the weirdo hostile internet though guy attitude mr Young, have I ever done anything to you?
B) Argue on merit, do you have anything meaningful to add, don't be pathetic?
C) The 'positions' tab is only one click away. No content and also lazy on top. Not a good look.

predicted YES

@WieDan Yeah I'm sorry. it was more hostile than a was going for. My bad

I guess I was going for sassy, but I got my figures wrong. As I say, my error.

predicted NO

@NathanpmYoung Water under the bridge.