Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Jan 26, 1:20pm: Will there be a pandemic via zoonosis from the ongoing avian H5N1 outbreak? → Will the WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza?

Feb 4, 12:43am: Will the WHO declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza? → Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?

Feb 6, 2:46pm: Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza? → Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 influenza before 2024?

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@NathanpmYoung can resolve?

bought Ṁ1,200 of NO

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predicted NO
predicted NO

predicted NO

Pedantic sidenote: should it be "a H5N1 pandemic" or "an H5N1 pandemic"? I initially felt like "an" was right but I thought "a" would be less controversial?

@NcyRocks In this case, it depends on if you're British or not (whether you pronounce the letter H like "aich" or like "haich"). If you pronoun it "aich", then you need to say "an", since otherwise there's a weird gap between the vowels. If you pronounce it like "haich" though, there's no reason to use "an". Confusing!

@Gabrielle Apparently even in British English saying "haitch" will get you shot by David Mitchell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo8FR8GGoJ0

A Tweet by pale bone

In the future it will seem crazy that we didn’t always have access to a single, reliable number on the likelihood of a pandemic. https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=aWFu

predicted YES

Created the following thread for discussion of H5N1: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QMMFyAX3ajf9vF5sb/h5n1-thread-for-information-sharing-planning-and-action

I encourage everyone to contribute with information. I really hope that I'll end up looking stupid and that biosecurity experts will chime in and tell me that I'm irresponsible and alarmist, but that fear was what kept me from doing anything remotely useful at the beginning of covid. Not making that mistake again.

predicted NO

@MathiasBonde What could you have done at the beginning of Covid?

predicted YES

I urge everyone to subsidize the following markets as well:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

There haven't even been any human cases associated with the mink outbreak. (Everyone wore PPE.) There's a gigantic gulf between the threat currently posed by the H5N1 on the mink farm and a PHEIC. Not impossible to cross, but mega unlikely imo.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Buying some no purely to subsidize market

predicted YES

is there somebody mana-rich who can subsidize this market? Seems like an exceptionally high impact use of imaginary money

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Seems possible to get to widespread human to human spread, and certainly worth protecting against. But also seems less likely than 10% https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs

Concern about mink outbreak (first?) publicised on Nov 29th 2022 in this technical report from UKHSA urging genomic analysis, leading to this news coverage on Nov 30th.

First study of the genomics of the outbreak published Jan 19th 2023.

Science.org news coverage published Jan 23.

Nature.org follows on Jan 24.

NYTimes opinion article published on Feb 3rd urging further action.

bought Ṁ70 of YES

I'd really appreciate information sources also?

A Tweet by Nathan 🔎

If you want a more accurate prediction on this, you can add liquidity! @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=TmF0aGFucG1Zb3VuZw

A Tweet by Nathan 🔎

If you want a more accurate prediction on this, you can add liquidity! @ManifoldMarkets https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-there-be-a-pandemic-via-zoonos?r=TmF0aGFucG1Zb3VuZw

bought Ṁ60 of NO

Very important question - just added M1000 in liquidity

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