Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?
Basic
246
928k
resolved Sep 2
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ28,521
2Ṁ10,038
3Ṁ5,705
4Ṁ2,227
5Ṁ1,792
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predicted NO

So, I believe that there was a certain type of manipulation that was going on in this market. I'm very curious and would love to update my models of how these things. So, I am offering $1k bounty to anyone who messages me on Discord and shares the details of what they did, esp if it matches some of what I was seeing.

predicted YES

Did I lose the most on this market? no! did i have the most YES shares by the end of this market? yes! win in my book.

predicted NO

this or rather these types of markets have been a grand success. thank you for making them

predicted NO

Wild market. Thanks everyone for participating. Looking back I was probably overconfident and lucky. I definitely did expect potential rigging.

Thanks to @nickten for suggesting this market. I didn't expect it to get this big.

Just FYI - at the beginning, I thought this was going to YES and Chris bought my 50% YES limit order. Then we both flipped that same day and he bought my 60% NO order.

I feel bad for those who might have lost more than they liked on this market. If you feel like your Manifold experience would be improved with more mana, leave me a comment and I can send you a managram for a reasonable requested amount.

@PC The stats are out, resolves NO (as do all the other engaged users August markets):

TrongboughtṀ100YES

@8 thank you

@firstuserhere haha you can take the rest :)

predicted NO

@PC At these prices? Never!

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Give me those 50% prices again xD

@firstuserhere Clearly you don’t know what is going to happen

predicted NO

@8 clearly, because I dont know what is going to happen

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Clearly, because I know you don’t know what is going to happen

predicted NO

@8 Clearly, because I know you know I don't know what is going to happen

predicted YES

@firstuserhere clearly, because I know you know I know you know I don't know what is going to happen

predicted YES

@8 wait i messed that up

predicted NO

@8 Just like this market

predicted NO

@firstuserhere @8 you two are cute ;)

PhilCboughtṀ3,000NO

@PC fast

Tundra XDboughtṀ100YES
predicted NO

@firstuserhere 15,595% return gotta have faith!

(Edit: ok more like 8,400% I didn't see their other buys at first)

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Meta gaming. If the platform doesn’t rocket, I’ll probably lose interest anyway and stop using it.

Low risk, high reward

Against my better judgement I’m hoping the ACX article brings enough traffic to keep the hope alive one last time.

predicted NO

@DanMan314 Which ACX article?

@chrisjbillington It won't happen but I want to free my mana anyway lol