Will Manifold have a day over 1350 engaged users in Aug?
246
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1.9K
resolved Sep 2
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

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PC avatar
PCpredicted NO

So, I believe that there was a certain type of manipulation that was going on in this market. I'm very curious and would love to update my models of how these things. So, I am offering $1k bounty to anyone who messages me on Discord and shares the details of what they did, esp if it matches some of what I was seeing.

8 avatar
Trongpredicted YES

Did I lose the most on this market? no! did i have the most YES shares by the end of this market? yes! win in my book.

nobody avatar
Specialist-Sugar-573predicted NO

this or rather these types of markets have been a grand success. thank you for making them

PC avatar
PCpredicted NO

Wild market. Thanks everyone for participating. Looking back I was probably overconfident and lucky. I definitely did expect potential rigging.

Thanks to @nickten for suggesting this market. I didn't expect it to get this big.

Just FYI - at the beginning, I thought this was going to YES and Chris bought my 50% YES limit order. Then we both flipped that same day and he bought my 60% NO order.

I feel bad for those who might have lost more than they liked on this market. If you feel like your Manifold experience would be improved with more mana, leave me a comment and I can send you a managram for a reasonable requested amount.

NamesAreHard avatar
NamesAreHardbought Ṁ2,000 of NO

@PC The stats are out, resolves NO (as do all the other engaged users August markets):

Trongbought Ṁ100 ofYES
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@8 thank you

PC avatar
PCbought Ṁ0 of NO

@firstuserhere haha you can take the rest :)

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted NO

@PC At these prices? Never!

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted NO

@firstuserhere Give me those 50% prices again xD

8 avatar
Trongbought Ṁ100 of YES

@firstuserhere Clearly you don’t know what is going to happen

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted NO

@8 clearly, because I dont know what is going to happen

8 avatar
Trongpredicted YES

@firstuserhere Clearly, because I know you don’t know what is going to happen

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted NO

@8 Clearly, because I know you know I don't know what is going to happen

8 avatar
Trongpredicted YES

@firstuserhere clearly, because I know you know I know you know I don't know what is going to happen

8 avatar
Trongpredicted YES

@8 wait i messed that up

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherepredicted NO

@8 Just like this market

PC avatar
PCpredicted NO

@firstuserhere @8 you two are cute ;)

PhilCbought Ṁ3,000 ofNO
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@PC fast

Tundra XDbought Ṁ100 ofYES
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
deagol avatar
Daniel Tellopredicted NO

@firstuserhere 15,595% return gotta have faith!

(Edit: ok more like 8,400% I didn't see their other buys at first)

TundraXD avatar
Tundra XDpredicted YES

@firstuserhere Meta gaming. If the platform doesn’t rocket, I’ll probably lose interest anyway and stop using it.

Low risk, high reward

DanMan314 avatar
Danbought Ṁ40 of YES

Against my better judgement I’m hoping the ACX article brings enough traffic to keep the hope alive one last time.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@DanMan314 Which ACX article?

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@chrisjbillington It won't happen but I want to free my mana anyway lol