update: based on the original intent of the question and people's trading, my resolution criteria will resolve YES if either:
a 70b model or greater is released
two different model sizes are released, for example 7b and 13b
if only a 7b is released, or only 7b-chat and 7b, this will resolve NO
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This can resolve YES:
https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1780999054719127840
70B and 8B model sizes are released.
@sylv I wouldn’t advise a poll. You should think through your resolution criteria and post them quick or resolve n/a. Think about:
Whether a smaller model preview would count
Whether a preview of the model in some usable form but without the weights available would count.
@sylv you can also create auxiliary questions for specific size thresholds, for instance "at least 30b params llama 3 before May"
@sylv and then rename the title of this question to the 70b threshold if that's what you've already decided on and confirmed here.
Just link to the other questions in the description.
I think 70b sounds reasonable for this market, just make it explicit asap and link to the other questions to make everyone happy.
@sylv I strongly recommend that you clarify now out what counts as a "release", and what counts as "LLama 3", or you run the risk of having many unhappy traders regardless of how you resolve.
Meta's Llama 3 is coming this summer — but a small version could drop next week for you to try early