The Battle of Bakhmut is the longest one of the Ukraine-Russia war, running from november 2022 to now.
In may of 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were pushed out of the city. Following the claimed victory, the Wagner group retreated from the city and was replaced by regular Russian troops.
Since then, the Ukrainian armed forces have resumed offensives around Bakhmut, making limited progress in the outlying villages as part of a potential encirclement, notably re-taking Kishchiivka on 23/07/2023.
This market will resolve YES if the AFU holds the Bakhmut City Building (48.58917818706879, 38.00052084708632) for at least a 24 hour period before the end of the year.
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@SebastianWorms even 9% seems high tbh. Ukraine doesn't want/need to capture it, it's a tactically worthless set of pillboxes now. It's only role was to bleed the Russian offensive
Shifting to a weak yes position. Need to sort out my maths.
1) Ukraine seeks to retake bakhmut directly this year 15%
2) Ukraine seeks to roll back Eastern front, sieging bakhmut and retaking it incidentally 100% long term, 5% this year (I believe the focus is on Crimea land route)
3) the smaller Eastern counterattack, seemingly intended as a diversion to pin three brigades down, has stopped convincingly enough that Russia has removed the reserve third brigade to reinforce the South.
3a) this means no capability for a Ukrainian attack here
3b) it may mean a opportunistic attack if no capability for a Russian counterattack
