Will GPT-4 be announced before March 1st 2023?
22%
chance
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This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before March 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases.
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I think its likely that danvinci was going to be gpt4 before the chinchilla paper and PALM came out.
I does seems likely that by now they have something else that's even better but whether they will call it gpt4 depends more on PR considerations than anything else.
YES shares
437
277
196
143
140
57
38
NO shares
1,107
629
463
366
308
233
207
197
153
128
120
116
103
102
79
