This market resolves to YES if OpenAI announces the release of GPT-4 before March 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases.
Clarification: Previously this question was ambiguous. Therefore, I will add these terms,
If GPT-4 is announced and released before March 1st, this question resolves to YES.
If GPT-4 is announced but not released, or released but not announced, before March 1st, this question resolves to N/A.
If GPT-4 is neither announced nor released before March 1st, this question resolves to NO.
To "announce the release of" GPT-4 means to make a statement to the effect that they're planning on releasing a system that the OpenAI staff consistently refer to as "GPT-4", or that they have already released such a system.
Added: If Bing's AI is revealed to be GPT-4 before March 1st by the staff of OpenAI, then that will count, and the question will resolve to YES.
Feb 7, 1:20pm: Will GPT-4 be announced before March 1st 2023? → Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023?
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