This market resolves to YES if OpenAI announces the release of GPT-4 before March 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI. I will use my best judgement regarding edge cases.
Clarification: Previously this question was ambiguous. Therefore, I will add these terms,
If GPT-4 is announced and released before March 1st, this question resolves to YES.
If GPT-4 is announced but not released, or released but not announced, before March 1st, this question resolves to N/A.
If GPT-4 is neither announced nor released before March 1st, this question resolves to NO.
To "announce the release of" GPT-4 means to make a statement to the effect that they're planning on releasing a system that the OpenAI staff consistently refer to as "GPT-4", or that they have already released such a system.
Added: If Bing's AI is revealed to be GPT-4 before March 1st by the staff of OpenAI, then that will count, and the question will resolve to YES.
Feb 7, 1:20pm: Will GPT-4 be announced before March 1st 2023? → Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023?
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"GPT-4 imminent." (https://twitter.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1628460249383583744)
"Word is late February so in the next week.
Some time between January and March was always the plan." (https://twitter.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1628460249383583744)
From a popular anonymous Twitter account that tends to have short timelines.
@IsaacKing I think tentatively it should resolve to YES in that case. Does anyone have any objections?
@MatthewBarnett should be explicitly called GPT-4 by OpenAI before the closing date for it to count, no?
@HenriThunberg Yes, I suppose that makes sense. I will add a line to the description saying that if Bing's AI is revealed to be GPT-4 by the staff of OpenAI before March 1st, this resolves to YES, but if it is revealed afterwards, that does not count.
The Verge: Microsoft announces surprise event for tomorrow with Bing ChatGPT expected
"Microsoft is holding a major news event tomorrow on February 7th. ... Microsoft’s event starts at 10AM PT / 1PM ET on February 7th, and the company isn’t teasing much ahead of time. But it’s likely the company will focus on its rumored ChatGPT integration into Bing and its broader partnership with OpenAI."
"Microsoft’s second-place search engine Bing is poised to incorporate a faster and richer version of ChatGPT, known as GPT-4, into its product in the coming weeks, marking rapid progress in the booming field of generative AI and a long-awaited challenge to Google’s dominance of search." — semafor.com
@21eleven I agree; I was mostly trying to point to the fact that the rumours are widespread.
@StevenK Huh, good point. I likely meant "announce the release of" but I'm not sure what to do. Hopefully this question won't resolve N/A because of this.
@MatthewBarnett fwiw, I would append a block into the description clarifying the language in that regard.
Participants watching the market should (hopefully) see these comments and update their positions if they wish.
@MatthewBarnett Thanks for clarifying. Sorry to nitpick, but I think by:
previously the resolution criteria said "This market resolves to YES if OpenAI announces GPT-4"
you meant:
previously the resolution criteria said "This market resolves to YES if OpenAI releases GPT-4"
With the new wording, I'm not 100% sure what phrase is modified by "before March 1st". It's only the announcement that has to take place before that date, right? The release can be later, so long as the announcement is earlier?
@StevenK Whoops, yeah. I am not reading very carefully. I modified the note in the question body.
TBQH I don't know exactly what I originally meant when I wrote the criteria, but I think I was imagining something like, an announcement saying that GPT-4 is about to be released, or they're planning to release it. However, I messed up and put "release" rather than focusing on the announcement part. Here's what I'll do, and I'll write it into the criteria,
If GPT-4 is announced and released before March 1st, this question resolves to YES.
If GPT-4 is announced but not released, or released but not announced, before March 1st, this question resolves to N/A.
If GPT-4 is neither announced nor released before March 1st, this question resolves to NO.