"Trillion+ dollar impact" is a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:
Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans
Superhuman art; people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art
AI generating wholly new science/tech
Level 4 self-driving cars fairly ubiquitous
Level 5 self-driving cars available in some places
(A technological singularity is irrelevant for betting purposes)
In case it's hard to quantify the impact in dollars, the following is a necessary but not sufficient condition for this market resolving YES: I ask friends/family who pay zero attention to AI developments and they are extremely aware of the thing.
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