Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023?
Jan 1, 2024
I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech 4. A technological singularity, obviously 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere
Anyone have examples of past trillion-dollar events? Smartphones would be one, I think. Maybe it's a tall order to point to a single 1.5-year period when a trillion dollars of value was added. If so, that may make it less likely for this to resolve to YES. Picking resolution criteria for predictions sure is hard. But very roughly I'm trying to ask this: PaLM and DALL-E are scarily good. Will things like that result in obvious changes in normal people's everyday lives by the end of 2023?