Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023?
17%
chance
I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:
1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans
2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art
3. AI generating wholly new science/tech
4. A technological singularity, obviously
5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere
How should I interpret "sudden" in this title? Is there any massive impact that won't count as sudden? (For example, if AI art just continues to gradually but rapidly improve until it reaches "superhuman" by the end of 2023, does that still count?)
Daniel Reeves is betting YES at 14% 11 hours ago
@EigilRischel Good question, let's say yes, that would count! But it has to be so superhuman that it kinda turns the industry upside down. That's the "trillion dollar" part.
Forrest bought M$20 of NO2 days ago
This is currently higher that https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll-8d2fc453ac75, which is clearly wrong.
Daniel Reeves is betting YES at 13% 17 days ago
Anyone have examples of past trillion-dollar events? Smartphones would be one, I think. Maybe it's a tall order to point to a single 1.5-year period when a trillion dollars of value was added. If so, that may make it less likely for this to resolve to YES.
Picking resolution criteria for predictions sure is hard.
But very roughly I'm trying to ask this: PaLM and DALL-E are scarily good. Will things like that result in obvious changes in normal people's everyday lives by the end of 2023?
Daniel Reeves is betting YES at 9% a month ago
Fair enough, we can add an implicit "conditional on lack of apocalypse" to this.
horse bought M$10 of NOa month ago
Unless it's true without causing human extinction, which seems vastly more likely?
Martin Randall bought M$1 of NOa month ago
Mana is worth less if this is true due to human extinction.