Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be imprisoned or deceased by end of August?

215

Ṁ150K

Ṁ2K

resolved Sep 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

Yes = he is publicly known to be imprisoned (in Russia, or any other place), or to be deceased - or it can be inferred as very likely from public sources

No = not the case

I might resolve Prob if it's some unclear in-between situation, a-la Kim Jong-Il in the last months of his stay on this Earth, blessed be his name

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It's ridiculous this is not resolved yet! Maybe Queen Elizabeth death market should being unresolved now just in case to make a certain she doesn't rise from tomb!

predicted NO

@Mirek They haven’t found his body. The implication that these two scenarios are anything alike is ridiculous.

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr pretty sure they recovered bodies but haven't confirmed anything definitively.

@ShadowyZephyr You just worried about diamond rank shyster.

predicted NO

@Mirek has Queen Elizabeth faked her death before? :))

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Mirek yeah my 25 mana in this market is what'll make the difference i'm sure

predicted NO

@Haws They have discovered bodies now. I don't think they had when I wrote this comment.

predicted YES

u can see two.. it looks like atleast two crumpled bodies in one of the video clips that was released at the beginning when the crashed first happened

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Will we know enough for this market to resolve by tomorrow?

By the end of the week?

/SimonGrayson/will-yevgeny-prigozhin-be-confirmed-05816a6540d4

/SimonGrayson/will-yevgeny-prigozhin-be-confirmed

bought Ṁ14 of NO

FYI a major independent/opposition Russian media reports Prigozhin death as 'possible'. It's too early for a definitive resolution yet.

https://meduza.io/feature/2023/08/23/bylo-oschuschenie-chto-posle-bunta-on-ploho-zakonchit-takogo-ne-proschayu

«Было ощущение, что после бунта он плохо закончит. Такого не прощают» Крушение самолета Пригожина. Что о возможной гибели главы ЧВК Вагнера говорят источники «Медузы», близкие к Кремлю — Meduza

Один из источников «Медузы», близких к администрации президента (АП), признался, что само крушение самолета Евгения Пригожина его «не очень удивило»: «было ощущение, что после бунта он плохо закончит, такого [в Кремле] не прощают».

predicted NO

Is current media coverage enough to resolve this market as a YES or do you take into consideration that it might have been a conspiracy? (inb4 I have my tinfoil hat on and its Russia we're talking about)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/will-it-be-confirmed-that-prigozhin

predicted NO

@MrLuke255 Certainly no need to rush with resolving until the dust settles or proof of some sort emerges

predicted YES

@lukres Agreed, it's definitly worth waiting. The many disguises saga shows he is (was?) the kind of person who actively takes measures against being assassinated, so not entirely implausible that he wasn't on the plane. If he is still alive we should know pretty soon.

sold Ṁ5 of NO

I say this as someone holding a bunch of “yes he died” shares, but a private plane crash seems like a great way to surreptitiously move to Fiji and have the world believe you’re dead.