This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Nevada in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Nevada, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00Apparently a big surge in young voters in Nevada?
@DylanSlagh I think it's mostly from this guy
Ralston predicts Kamala in Nevada https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
@Ziddletwix He didn't give any reason except what he hopes will happen.
(She could win, but he provides no evidence of that.)
Did you even click on the article?
----On Friday, the last day when the Dems had their best day, it was also the youngest and most non-white of any day in the early vote period. The under-30 cohort exceeded the proportion of the Over 65 cohort for the first time by 7 points. Whites also made up only 61 percent of the voters. And indies had more voters in Clark than either of the majors. Anomaly or harbinger of what’s to come?
The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie.
@StopPunting (i.e. "who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote.") is not a reason. It is a wish.
@StopPunting Where is the reasoning for "just enough"?
That's right, there isn't any. And there couldn't be; it would have to be significantly more than "just enough" for there to be any reasonable reasoning.
based on his experience with Nevada elections, he thinks it will be just enough? plus you could read the rest of his early vote analysis to figure out how he comes to that conclusion? even if the data wasn't also right there (and since his data/analysis before the predictions presents it as close to a 50/50) there is nothing to believe its a wish instead of his honest analysis
@BrandonRoney Only problem is dems reliably outperform polls in Nevada, Trump needs to be up like 2-4pts in Nevada to have a solid chance here, currently he's up a couple tenths (at best). Early voting numbers are hard to analyze, before 2020 early votes overwhelmingly favored reps in most states, because reps skew older. Dems on the otherhand more likely vote on election day. 2020 was unusual in that voting by mail was used widely across age groups due to covid, so a lot of people sorta forgot that early voters tend to be red. Dems may still outperform in early voting this cycle, similar to 2020, but that is only an assumption at this point. If it's a cycle like <=2016 the reps need to be up far more than they currently are in early votes to secure a win here.
@ChrisMcGuire genuinely asking here, aren't the expected turnout rates of republicans for election day voting quite a bit higher for this election compared to 2020 and 2016? Just anecdotally speaking, I have seen/know of quite a few people who are going to vote on Tuesday - many of whom claiming to do so because they don't trust the process otherwise.
@jaberjay the surge in trump odds here is largely due to analysis of the early vote #s (plus a little it of the general GOP surge + real money market distortions from Fredi, but there's a reason NV has surged much more than e.g. MI/PA). not saying that's correct—people often read too much into the early vote data. but that's the main reason you saw a sudden shift after the odds here had been stable for a long time