This question resolves after the Associated Press projects which party will control the United States House following the 2024 US general election and all relevant runoff/special elections.
This question resolves YES if the Republican Party will be in control, or NO otherwise. This question will wait to resolve until 48 hours after the house majority has been called by the AP, to ensure that the call is not retracted.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, this question will wait for those to resolve.
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Well, Matt Gaetz apparently HAS now resigned before the start of congress. Not sure AP retracts the call because of this but 🤷♂️
Alaska is almost certain to flip Republican.
As it stands, the election will head to a ranked-choice runoff. Even if Peltola receives all votes from 4th place and below, she would still be short of 50%. So, it must come down to redistributing the third-party votes for John W. Howe (AIP), who received 11k first-choice votes. Nick Begich would need less than 3k second-choice votes to win the runoff. This is likely to happen given the nationalist conservative position of the AIP.
@ManifoldPolitics I think this can resolve now?
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4974235-house-republicans-control-majority/amp/
@Calibrate Seems a little excessive. The AP calls thousands of races per year and I can only find a couple examples where they miscalled races in the last decade. Do you really want to make every wait 48 hours on the 1 in 10,000 chance the AP is wrong?
@GG in the cases where it's stated in the market description that we wait, it's policy here to wait. Market creators that don't want to wait that long can just state it resolves to AP call, in which case it can resolve early and reresolve in the rare cases where AP changes their call
@Bayesian I understand you gotta resolve the market the way you say you're gonna resolve it, but that just pushes the question back. Why does a question from an official Manifold account have a 48 hour delay? Resolving immediately on the AP call would tie the your winnings/losses to the breaking news, amplifying its dopamine rush. It's not nearly as fun to collect your winnings two days later. And in the 1 in 10,000 chance that you have to unresolve the market when the AP retracts their call...well now you've taken my dopamine on a roller coaster!
I was curious, so I looked at the 18 remaining uncalled House races. There are 13 currently uncalled races where Democrats have at least a slim chance of winning:
CA-39 (Takano, currently D+12)
CA-49 (Levin, currently D+3)
OR-05 (Bynum, currently D+3)
CA-09 (Harder, currently D+2)
CA-27 (Whitesides, currently D+2)
CA-21 (Costa, currently D+1)
CA-47 (Min, currently D+<1)
OH-09 (Kaptur, currently D+<1)
ME-02 (Golden, proceeding to runoff v. Theriault)
AZ-06 (Engel, currently Ciscomani R+<1)
CA-45 (Tran, currently Steel R+2)
CA-13 (Gray, currently Duarte R+3)
CA-41 (Rollins, currently Calvert R+3)
To control the House, Democrats would need to win all 13 of the above, plus one additional race from this set (which I believe is exceedingly unlikely):
CA-22 (Salas, currently Valadao R+7)
CO-08 (Caraveo, currently Evans R+<1 with the vast majority of votes in)
IA-01 (Bohannan, currently Miller-Meeks R+<1 with the vast majority of votes in)
AK-01 (Peltola, proceeding to runoff v. Begich, will almost certainly lose)
Democrats have already lost these uncalled races:
WA-04 (Republican vs. Republican)
It's worth comparing this to the individual seat markets on the US Election tab:
ME-02 is almost guaranteed D
OR-05 and OH-09 are safe D
Most of the unfinished CA seats are likely D, except for:
CA-41, CA-45, CA-13 (all at ~30% D), and CA-22 (5% D)
AZ-06 is likely R (85%)
CO-08, IA-01 are safe R (95%)
AK-01 is likely R (10%)
I'm inclined to agree with all of these assessments.
The CA seats are all correlated, and probably also weakly correlated with AZ-06.
I think a D victory is extremely unlikely but not literally inconceivable (1-2%).
@Anthem Huh, interesting. Better trade R on that AK-01 market, then! It's worth noting that in 2022, a majority of voters preferred Begich to Peltola (52.6% to 47.4%), but Peltola won as Sarah Palin eliminated Begich from the race before the final runoff.
@Calibrate I'm not sure if this is true? She would only leave congress after she is confirmed by the senate for the position, no?
