This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.
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@Joshua How do we reconcile this poll with every other poll in the last week that shows Trump leading in Pennsylvania? Even if one discounts that poll that undersampled Philadelphia black voters, there is still a spread in the polls outside the margins of error.
@SteveSokolowski GOP aligned pollsters are flooding the zone with crap. Most GOP aligned pollsters showed Oz with a 2 to 3 point lead in 2022. NYT/Siena showed Fetterman a few points ahead. Fetterman ended up winning by 5. Same pattern is emerging this year.
@ZacParker While it's true there are a lot of shitty GOP aligned pollsters, it's also the case that the NYT is just much better at finding/modeling/weighting likely voters than anyone else in the business - including other neutral pollsters.
And they aren't weighting by recalled 2020 vote and so aren't herding their results towards what has happened before. This chart makes the difference clear:
@skibidist Look, having nuclear β my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart β you know, if you're a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world β it's true! β but when you're a conservative Republican they try β oh, do they do a number β that's why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune β you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we're a little disadvantaged β but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me β it would have been so easy, and it's not as important as these lives are β nuclear is so powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right, who would have thought? β but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners β now it used to be three, now it's four β but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven't figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it's gonna take them about another 150 years β but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us, this is horrible.
My theory on why Trump will not win the 2024 election is because he won the 2016 election not due to being an ideal candidate but because America hated Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump.
EDIT: spelling mistake corrected
@TalesFromTheBasement doesn't check out. Biden won by <100k adversarial votes & he was both much more popular than Clinton & in a historically (once in a generation) favorable situation with covid & BLM fever. Clinton didn't lose by such a slim margin & there's been some rightward drift among men, though not very much
I have just submitted my entry for the 2026 Diversity Visa Lottery and I endorse President Trump.
@skibidist Trump win because he had help. Hilary won the popular vote by a landslide. But the Electoral vote is what tells us who won and only a few states have that power to elect the President. The rest of our votes don't matter.
@ManifoldPolitics Start adding some more iron-clad t's and c's on these election results markets. I know it's different for you down there in Australia, but I think everyone is going to be astonished just by how many shenanigans are going to occur in this election.
@Predictor FYI Joshua, a true blooded US citizen, runs the politics account - not me (the Australian). Are there any particular edge cases you want covered?
We ran this one past all the mods before making it too and hammered out all the edge cases we can think of. Any election denialism like last time won't matter if the AP/Fox call the race. If they don't call the race, then this resolves on certification or contingent election. If the US devolves into civil war with no certification, the default resolution is NO.
@Joshua What about a remix of the 2000 election, what happened there and could something similar happen this year?
@Predictor There were some incorrect state calls election night of 2000, but they were quickly retracted. Then things went through the courts and ultimately congress certified Bush as the winner.
@Joshua, @Predictor Realistically, the only two possible options are Congress certifies a winner, or the entire United States collapses. I really think that there is no way that there is a congress failing to certify a winner outcome.