If Harris wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 3.5%)?
If Harris wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 3.5%)?
resolved by
71
1kṀ8696
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
N/A

Inflation data gathered from the bureau of labor statistics

The current inflation rate is 3.2% the FED has a goal of 2%. 2.5% is roughly in the middle of these two numbers. If Harris is elected will the FED reach that mark?

Resolves N/A if Harris is not elected.

Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.


Related:


Politics
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
Kamala Harris
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
bought 𝕊1.00 YES6mo

It looks like experts aren’t expecting Harris’ plans to alter the current projections of it remaining below 2.5%

https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-tariffs-taxes-immigration-federal-reserve-a18de763fcc01557258c7f33cab375ed

7mo

I suspect the probability for Trump or Harris in 2025 should be somewhat close since inflation is a somewhat lagging indicator and 2025 is only a years time. I guess any policy differences should be visible by the end of 2025, but then there is the additional question of how long it would take to enact these policy differences.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy