This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

 if it secures a majority of voting seats.

A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called. Candidates not formally affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered aligned with one based on their publicly declared intent to caucus.

 is unclear under the above rules, control will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 is unclear, it will be determined by the party affiliation of the first 

 have all conclusively called the outcomes of both chambers. If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ 

No final decision has been made yet; the creator is seeking trader input.

Each option provisionally resolves once both the New York Times and Decision Desk HQ (or, if those become defunct, other reliable sources) call the race and do not retract the call for 24 hours. Final resolution will be according to certified results.

Whether a candidate is "a Democrat" is determined by the party affiliation displayed on the ballot (being a Dem as one party on a fusion ticket counts.)

Can close when the winner is called by AP, Economist, and other major media outlets.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat. The outcome will be determined based on official results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth. If the primary is canceled or no candidate is declared the winner, the market will resolve as N/A.

Incumbent Senator Ed Markey, who has served since 2013, has announced his intention to seek re-election in 2026. At that time, he will be 80 years old. (

Alex Rikleen, a history teacher, has declared his candidacy for the Democratic primary. (

Representative Jake Auchincloss, serving Massachusetts's 4th congressional district since 2021, has not ruled out a primary challenge against Markey. (

Other potential candidates include Katherine Clark, Ayanna Pressley, Seth Moulton, Joseph Kennedy III, Marty Walsh, and Michelle Wu, though none have officially declared their intentions as of now.

Senator Markey's age has been a topic of discussion, with some questioning whether he should seek another term. (

) Additionally, the potential entry of younger candidates like Auchincloss could influence the dynamics of the primary race. (

Resolves to the winner. Resolves on media reporting and official results.

Resolves to the winner of the 2026 us senate election in Maine. Resolves according to official results and major media reporting.

Incumbent Democratic Senator from Minnesota Tina Smith, whose seat is up for re-election in 2026, has surprisingly decided not to seek reelection. Who will replace her as Minnesota Senator? Feel free to add answers, especially since the candidate field has yet to be determined at time of market creation. Question will be resolved upon the results of the general election becoming known. I may bet in this market.

Resolves according to the winner of the 2026 US senate election in Montana. If a Republican or bodnar doesn’t win, resolves n/a.

Resolves when both AP and DDHQ have called the race, and the calls are not retracted for at least 24 hours. If the race is never called by one of these organizations, resolves when election results are certified.

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. Results can be verified at 

Texas Secretary of State Elections Division

 or major news outlets covering the election results.

If Marco Rubio leaves the Senate, there will be a special election in 2026 to decide who will fill the position for the remaining 2 years of that term. 

If a GOP candidate wins this election, this market resolves yes.

If a non-GOP candidate wins, the election isn't held, or some other outcome occurs, this market resolves NO. 

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate wins the 2026 election to the U.S. Senate from Georgia.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party if such individual is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed affiliation, of that party.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Although Republicans are largely expected to win the seat, a recent poll from Public Policy Polling has shown Republicans between 1 and 14 points ahead, a potentially competitive range.

As identified on the ballot, regardless of how they eventually caucus. For the caucus question, see 

Note that the Democratic party is not expected to field a candidate; they've endorsed Osborn.

In the event that Osborn declares for a major party and appears on the ballot as a D or R candidate, this market will resolve to the D or R option.

Texas, but neither California nor New York

Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts.

This question will resolve YES if, in the 2026 midterm election, the congressional district containing Charlottesville is a blue district.

 of EVEN or D+x (for some positive x) on the day of the Democratic primary election. If there is no Cook PVI on that day, I will wait to resolve until a Cook PVI is known.

 if there are multiple congressional districts that contain Charlottesville, this question will be resolved based on the congressional district that has the greatest overlap with the current 5th congressional district, in terms of population.

 currently, the congressional district containing Charlottesville (the 5th district) is red, with a Cook PVI of R+6 (meaning that, in a neutral environment, Republicans are expected to get 56% of the vote). However, Virginia is likely to redistrict in a way that favors Democrats, and the district containing Charlottesville may become blue.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 3, 2026, the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional district maps AND gains seats in Congress.

The market will resolve “No” if the Texas Legislature enacts new congressional maps, but loses seats or maintains the same number.

The market will resolve to "NA" if no such redistricting occurs by that date. 

In July 2025, President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional maps to create five additional GOP-favored districts, aiming to bolster the party's majority in the U.S. House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Governor Greg Abbott responded by adding redistricting to a special legislative session agenda. Democrats are vulnerable because unlike Texas, Democratic strongholds typically have independent redistricting commissions to ensure nonpartisan districts. (

Texas Republicans currently hold 25 of the state's 38 congressional seats. The proposed redistricting targets districts like that of Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the Rio Grande Valley. The current districts are already being challenged under the Voting Rights act for diluting minority rule. Mid-decade redistricting is unprecedented, as is such extreme and blatant partisanship in creating voting districts. Ordinarily districts are redrawn once every ten years to reflect changes in the state population as recorded in the Census. 

Some are speculating that further aggressive gerrymandering in Texas amounts to “dummymandering” that could backfire by galvanizing people into turning out and toppling GOP incumbents in redrawn districts that didn’t elect them. 

A federal district court recently ruled that Texas could not use its 2025 map for the 2026 midterms:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/politics/texas-redistricting-trump-court-ruling

This question resolves YES if and only if the 2025 map, as enacted by the legislature in August, is actually used for the 2026 midterms (e.g. if the district court's decision is overturned on appeal).

This market resolves yes if Virginia uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

There is a current attempt in Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting, similar to several other states. This is particularly complicated in Virginia, because they currently have a bipartisan redistricting commission and passing a constitutional amendment is more difficult than in California. The steps needed (to my understanding:

This market will resolve Yes if Florida uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

Governor Ron DeSantis has announced a new map, and there is a special session of the (Republican controlled) legislature to try to pass it. From a legal perspective redistricting in Florida is complicated by the fact that the Florida constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering (in contrast to other states where the easiest way to avoid legal challenges to to be explicit that you are gerrymandering based on partisanship).

Resolves YES if after the 2026 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.

If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.

Washington Post reports that Trump is expected to bring the USPS under executive control. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/20/trump-usps-takeover-dejoy/

Assuming he issues the expected order, and further assuming the order is not overturned before the 2026 midterms, will Trump issue another executive order preventing the delivery or counting of vote-by-mail ballots for the federal elections for the 120th Congress?

This market will also resolve Yes if Congress passes legislation that prevents either the delivery or the counting of vote-by-mail ballots in the same elections.

In the case that such an executive order is issued or such a law is passed, and in practice the order or law only applies to some portion of eligible voters, this market will also resolve Yes.

This market will resolve when the 120th Congress sits for their first session.

"win the House" == when counting all voting representatives who caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic caucus has a majority

"win the Senate" == when counting all voting senators who caucus with the Democrats, the Democratic caucus has a full majority (51+)

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

VP party change or otherwise announced change in Senate tie break

Any major news organization retracts a call

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Senator not up for re-election changes party

This is intended to capture whether any of the weird edge cases surround the election and seating of the next Congress come to pass, especially focused on things that might cause other markets to resolve in unexpected or apparently contradictory ways.

These scenarios cover Congressional elections only; State or local elections are not included.

The start of the term is Noon on Jan 3rd, 2027.

The first day is the actual first day -- Jan 3rd, or later if so decided by law.

Major news organizations: AP, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC.

Member seated who was not the winner: as of the final call by news networks before the end of day Jan 2nd. If a news org retracts a call and the new call matches who is eventually seated, that is NOT enough to trigger this.

Majority control discrepancy: Any of the following don't match:

Bonus underlying chaos: two or more events happen that would have each independently triggered the same question. For example, two vacant Senate seats.

Market chaos: two markets that should resolve in response to the election and start of session of the new Congress, that resolve in apparent contradiction, as a result of a technicality. Includes both technicalities listed above and any unknown unknowns.

Bonus market chaos: more than one such pair, with no market in common. (Three markets on the "same" event that split 2-1 is not enough to trigger this; a 2-2 split would.)

None of these will resolve N/A. I might trade in this market; if it ends up a mess and I have conflicts of interest I will request mod team assistance. This market is inherently about edge cases; pedantic questions and help with the details are very welcome. Complaints about edge cases after they arise 

 will be looked at with extreme levels of "I warned you". Bring up questions early.

One goal of this market is "an arb bot could use this to hedge weird stuff"; suggestions to make that more viable are quite welcome.

Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) - Republican

Earlier this year, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election. This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate. For this market, I will only consider incumbent candidates in 2026 (whether or not they win their race).

2024's worst performing incumbents were Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) at D+17.7 and Representative Ilhan Omar (D:MN-05) at R+13.1. This question will be resolved to the single worst performing incumbent in all of Congress.

https://split-ticket.org/full-wins-above-replacement-war-database/

Democrats control House, Republicans control Senate

Republicans control House, Democrats control Senate

While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".

Wikipedia's verdict on control will stand unless the creator strongly disagrees with it.

This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:

https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest

The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:

This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.

Including independents who intend to caucus with the Democrats.

Based on consensus of credible reporting called races.

Please format answers as X+ for X or more seats. If there's relevant context to the number, feel free to add it; or just add numbers that seem relevant to forecast.