Trump approval
VoteHub average
38.5%
Past 7 days
Elections
Live prediction market odds on US elections
2026 Midterms
56 DemocraticDD needs 51 · R needs 50 (VP breaks ties)RepublicanR 44
35 of 35 seats with party odds · 65 seats not on the ballot
Loading election map…
Arrow keys move between races. Enter opens details.Republican50 / 50Democratic
Other leadsNo party odds yetNot on ballot · current party
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Senate controlchart →
ⓘ
Republicans need 51 seats, or 50 with VP Vance breaking ties, so a 50–50 Senate counts as Republican. The Democratic side is every other outcome, including independents who don’t caucus with Republicans.
House controlchart →
ⓘ
Republicans need 218 seats to keep the House. The Democratic side is any result with fewer than 218 Republicans.
Democratic Senate seatschart →
56seats
Most likely · Democratic majority96%chance
<1% Republican SenateRep. Senate
97% Democratic majorityDem. majority
24 hours agoDems need 51; Vance breaks a 50–50 tiePick a bar to bet
Polling averages
VoteHub's live polling averages. Bet on whether they go higher or lower.
Vance favorability
VoteHub average
39.9%
Past 7 days
Manifold Midterm Contest
Only on Manifold: the community's contest questions about the campaign trail, from candidate visits to winning margins.
Leading: Democrats win 55 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)99.0%169 traders
99.0%chance22 traders
Leading: Dems win Alaska + Maine99.0%20 traders
93%chance15 traders
99.0%chance15 traders
Leading: Other97%9 traders
Leading: 4 or more91%7 traders
What control of Congress would change
The same questions, asked under each outcome of the Senate race. Click a chance to bet on it.
Senate
House
Midterms
Chance of…
If Democrats win the Senate · 99%
If Republicans keep the Senate · 1%
Gap
A justice leaves the Supreme Court (by Jan 2029)
49-pt gap
Senate confirms a new Supreme Court justice
57-pt gap
40+ federal judges confirmed in 2027–28
60-pt gap
A Cabinet nomination is rejected or withdrawn
50-pt gap
Government shutdown in 2027
11-pt gap
Legislative filibuster ended (by Jan 2029)
No gap
Each market resolves N/A if its condition doesn't happen, so bets only count in that world.
Unprecedented politics
Things that have never happened in American politics, with the market's live odds that they do.
26%chance295 traders
16%chance167 traders
6%chance469 traders
38%chance163 traders
62%chance97 traders
94%chance2721 traders
15%chance108 traders
21%chance66 traders
Trending
The hottest midterm markets right now
What the 2028 winner would change
The same questions, asked under a Democratic and a Republican president. Click a chance to bet on it.
Chance of…
If the Democrat wins · 67%
If the Republican wins · 32%
Gap
S&P 500 up by end of 2029 (vs Election Day)
No gap
GDP shrinks in a quarter, 2029–30
No gap
Supreme Court grows beyond nine (by 2033)
24-pt gap
Marijuana federally descheduled (by 2033)
23-pt gap
Legislative filibuster ended (by 2031)
35-pt gap
Federal abortion-rights law (by 2033)
24-pt gap
Bitcoin above $250k at end of 2030
4-pt gap
Each market resolves N/A if its condition doesn't happen, so bets only count in that world.
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