Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Trump
47%
Harris
53%
D President, R Senate, D House
32%
R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta
25%
D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta
18%
It is the last debate between any 2 members of the major party tickets, during the month it takes place in
84%
Vance accuses Walz of selling out the US to China (construed broadly)
6%
Walz says "Weird"
Resolved
NO
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
AKALARAZCACOCTDEFLGAHIIAIDILINKSKYLAMAMDMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENHNJNMNVNYOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVAVTWAWIWVWYDC
DEM
57%
REP
43%
DEM
57%
REP
43%
DEM
56%
REP
44%
DEM
51%
REP
49%
DEM
46%
REP
54%
DEM
40%
REP
60%
DEM
37%
REP
63%
2024 US Presidential Election
Harris
53%
Kamala Harris
Trump
46%
Donald Trump
Walz
0.4%
Tim Walz
Vance
0.4%
JD Vance
Biden
0.2%
Joe Biden
M. Obama
0.1%
Michelle Obama
Kennedy
0.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Haley
0.1%
Nikki Haley
15 more
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
62%
78%
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
78%
78%
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
75%
44%
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
47%
45%
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
80%
52%
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
64%
54%
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
78%
75%
Will the US enter a recession before 2027? (as measured by Sahm rule)
50%
55%
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
39%
24%
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
72%
59%
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?
24%
2%