Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
2024 US Presidential Election
Trump
68%
Donald Trump
Biden
19%
Joe Biden
Harris
5%
Kamala Harris
M. Obama
1.6%
Michelle Obama
Whitmer
1.3%
Gretchen Whitmer
Kennedy
1.2%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Newsom
1.2%
Gavin Newsom
Haley
0.2%
Nikki Haley
13 more
Presidential Nomination
Democratic
Joe Biden
Biden
73%
Kamala Harris
Harris
16%
Gretchen Whitmer
Whitmer
1.7%
See 9 more
Republican
Donald Trump
Trump
99%
Ron DeSantis
DeSantis
0%
Nikki Haley
Haley
0.9%
See 1 more
Trump will nominate the VP during the event
99%
Trump shooting mentioned by three or more speakers
97%
MAGA hats will outnumber GOP foam fingers 2:1 inside the convention hall
86%
Democratic Party
21%
Republican Party
78%
Other
0%
Fine of at least $10,000,000
3%
Fine of at least $1,000,000
5%
Prison time
5%
Netanyahu wears a pin with an Israeli flag
97%
More than ten members of Congress wear yellow ribbons
95%
Hebrew word(s) spoken by Netanyahu
93%
If Biden beats Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
57%
If Biden loses to Trump, Jon Tester wins the Montana Senate race
20%
If Biden beats Trump, Sherrod Brown wins the Ohio Senate Race
66%
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
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Michigan
DEM
49%
REP
51%
Wisconsin
DEM
43%
REP
57%
Pennsylvania
DEM
37%
REP
63%
Nevada
DEM
22%
REP
78%
Arizona
DEM
21%
REP
78%
Georgia
DEM
17%
REP
83%
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Republican Party
70%
Democratic Party
30%
Who would win if they were the Democratic nominee?
Buttigieg
42%
+6% today
Pete Buttigieg
Newsom
41%
+6% today
Gavin Newsom
Whitmer
40%
+4% today
Gretchen Whitmer
Harris
36%
Kamala Harris
2 more
Republican vice presidential nomination
Vance
99%
+66% today
J.D. Vance
Pence
0%
Mike Pence
Lake
0%
Kari Lake
DeSantis
0%
Ron DeSantis
Haley
0%
Nikki Haley
Scott
0.2%
-4% today
Tim Scott
Ramaswamy
0.1%
-2% today
Vivek Ramaswamy
Stefanik
0.1%
Elise Stefanik
61 more
2024 Democratic presidential nomination
Biden
73%
Joe Biden
Harris
16%
Kamala Harris
Whitmer
1.7%
Gretchen Whitmer
M. Obama
1.7%
Michelle Obama
Newsom
1.6%
Gavin Newsom
Shapiro
1.1%
Josh Shapiro
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
1.1%
Buttigieg
1.1%
Pete Buttigieg
4 more
2024 Republican presidential nomination
Trump
99%
Donald Trump
DeSantis
0%
Ron DeSantis
Haley
0.9%
Nikki Haley
1 more
What will happen if...
Will undocumented immigration at the southern border go down?
Will the president appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
Will marijuana be federally rescheduled from Schedule 1 drug?
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon before the midterms?
Will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5%? (Current 3.2%)
Will the US enter a recession before 2027?
Gallup satisfaction poll greater than Obama
Will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?
Will Donald Trump serve time in 2025?