i didn't even read the question, but the number when i bet no is just so much bigger than the number when i bet yes

I hope this didn’t drop 1% today because people are giving credence to the ridiculous “let him resign so Kamala can become the first woman president for a week” idea…

@mqudsi free money for you

Let’s just hope that the American democracy isn’t completely joever… please make the right choice in the eelctions… help yourselves… your allies… Ukraine…. If you abandon us now it’s the same story as with WW2.. don’t make the mistakes of Britain and France…

List of Russian wars and events similar to WW2

Chechnya = Anschluss/saarland

Georgia = Sudetenland

Crimea = Anschluss

Invasion of Ukraine = Poland

Vote for the prevalence of democracy…. Do not sacrifice others for yourselves…. Save yourselves and others… do not throw your allies to the wolves… do not leave the world to fall to the despotic and authoritarian regimes of China, North Korea and Russia…

Trump vows to make peace but he will make peace at the expense of Ukraine…. Not Russia….

(nothing ever happens)

Jill Biden now playing make believe in the White House, like a 5 year old serving tea to a cat. This is getting embarrassing.

@DonutThrow You never replied to my previous offer of a side bet. Care to bet now?

@NGK I am broke, very very broke

sell order at 90%. interested parties may arb with https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first as far as I can tell

@Bayesian Ah, there's a third option, which is that he dies before January 20.

And a fourth option is the 25th amendment is invoked - I think that doesn't count as resigning.

So these two markets should add to less than 100%.

oh good point

wait so these are even more arbable than previously thought?

@Bayesian Until someone fixes it 😉

@TimothyJohnson5c16 By buying my NO shares!

@Bayesian It's a very good deal, yes, I just didn't want to keep getting further into this trade because too much of my net worth is now bound up in these two dumb markets.

If loans come back, I'll be able to go back to doing more trades like this

It's going to be so funny when Biden resigns the day after the election and hails the greatest achievement of his administration: American's first black woman president.

The other reason why Biden will resign is that it's better if Harris pardons the Biden crime family than if Biden does it himself, which brings up more constitutional issues.

Care to make a side bet? Biden won’t receive a pardon from Harris.

I’ll bet as much as you like.

I’m only betting “no” here as an arb against my position on https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first?r=RGF2aWRGV2F0c29u

Be careful you don't overpay in fees

Oh oh, limit orders only, but thank you

Remember when we were told that “very smart traders” were betting that Biden would not finish his term? Here is the user to whom that phrase referred:

Correct me if I'm wrong but does the difference between these too markets (currently 83% vs 22%) imply that traders think there is a 5% chance President Biden drops dead or gets pushed out by his cabinet before the end of the term? Seem a bit high to me

(not that I don't enjoy doing a bit of arbitration)

No, the markets are just inconsistent, and can be arbed.
Currently is says there's a 22% chance he resigns, but only an 100-83 = 17% chance he doesn't finish the term. But if he resigns, he obviously doesn't finish the term.

If this market were at 78%, and the resign market were at 17%, that would be a 5% that he dies or gets removed without resigning.

You're right, I was reading the other way around

that linked market is too high bc there's one guy that has a lot of mana and is buying at 21%. probably a good price to be buying NO at.

Not sure these can technically be arbed now (at 84% / 20%), the fees make you lose more than you gain.

https://manifold.markets/Lagomorph/will-joe-biden-die-before-the-concl