Clone of https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president?tid=1719729460020
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States of America without any interruptions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will not resolve "Yes" until the presidency is successfully transferred from Biden to another person at the completion of his term on January 20, 2025, or until Biden is sworn into the presidency again on that date.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves identically to the Polymarket market.
Related questions
sell order at 90%. interested parties may arb with https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first as far as I can tell
Iโm only betting โnoโ here as an arb against my position on https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-joe-biden-resign-in-his-first?r=RGF2aWRGV2F0c29u
Remember when we were told that โvery smart tradersโ were betting that Biden would not finish his term? Here is the user to whom that phrase referred:
Correct me if I'm wrong but does the difference between these too markets (currently 83% vs 22%) imply that traders think there is a 5% chance President Biden drops dead or gets pushed out by his cabinet before the end of the term? Seem a bit high to me
(not that I don't enjoy doing a bit of arbitration)
No, the markets are just inconsistent, and can be arbed.
Currently is says there's a 22% chance he resigns, but only an 100-83 = 17% chance he doesn't finish the term. But if he resigns, he obviously doesn't finish the term.
If this market were at 78%, and the resign market were at 17%, that would be a 5% that he dies or gets removed without resigning.
Not sure these can technically be arbed now (at 84% / 20%), the fees make you lose more than you gain.
Sure but it raises the probability by a small amount and at 83% you are getting a good price on health alone I think.