If the Democrats win the white house, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
If the Democrats win the white house, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
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If the Democratic party's nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If the Democratic nominee does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.
I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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